Netherlands v Argentina World Cup predictions: Messi magic may not be enough

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Netherlands v Argentina in the World Cup quarter-finals on Friday.

Where to watch

BBC One, 7pm Saturday

Netherlands v Argentina World Cup match predictions

Netherlands draw no bet
1pt 7-5 BoyleSports, Paddy Power

The Netherlands have won their last three World Cup quarter-finals and the Oranje's solid defence can lay the foundation for victory over Argentina, whose overreliance on talisman Lionel Messi could come back to bite them.

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Match preview

The Netherlands are one of the top football nations to have never won the World Cup, but they have reached at least the semi-finals in their last two appearances and have the last four in sight once again.

There are many different ways of winning matches and the Oranje have favoured a cautious, counter-attacking style which has contributed to a tetchy relationship between their manager Louis Van Gaal and sections of the Dutch media.

However, Van Gaal's players are buying into his methods and did an excellent job when defeating USA 3-1 in the round of 16.

The USA were on the front foot for long periods, but their threat was largely nullified by a disciplined and physical Dutch defence and they were picked off by incisive counter-attacks.

Beating the US extended the Netherlands' unbeaten run to 19 games – the longest of any of the eight quarter-finalists – yet they are rather unloved by the markets and are 16-1 sixth favourites to lift the trophy.

Van Gaal won't care about that, though, and his tactics could be ideally suited to dealing with Argentina.

There has been significant improvement from the Albiceleste since they were stunned by Saudi Arabia in their opening match of the World Cup. Lionel Messi's deadlock-breaking goal against Mexico in their next outing sparked an improvement in his and Argentina's performance, but they still look far from the finished article.

Argentina made hard work of what should have been a routine last-16 clash with Australia and needed a smart stoppage-time save from Emiliano Martinez to hold on for a 2-1 victory.

Australia competed well and caused Argentina a few problems but ultimately the Socceroos lacked the quality to create better opportunities.

The Dutch, however, have far more weapons in their armoury.

Wing-back Denzel Dumfries will be full of confidence after two assists and a goal against the USA and forwards Cody Gakpo and Memphis Depay are ideally equipped to punish Argentina's high defensive line.

Argentina like to squeeze the play and have dominated possession in all of their matches. But the majority of their attacks go through the iconic Messi and their overreliance on their diminutive maestro could be their undoing.

Messi has come up with match-winning moments against Mexico and Australia and still has the skills and desire to humble any defence on the planet.

However, the majority of World Cups are won by great teams rather than great individuals and Messi's quest to land the ultimate prize may come unstuck on Friday night.

Key stat

The Netherlands are unbeaten in their last 19 games.

Team news

Netherlands
Jeremie Frimpong (ankle) was part of the squad against USA and should be involved again.

Argentina
Papu Gomez (ankle) is a doubt and could be replaced by Angel di Maria (quad) who is reportedly winning his fitness battle.

Probable teams

Netherlands (3-4-1-2) Noppert; Timber, Van Dijk, Ake; Dumfries, De Roon, De Jong, Blind; Klaasen; Gakpo, Depay.

Argentina (4-3-3) E Martinez; Molina, Romero, Otamendi, Acuna; De Paul, Fernandez, Mac Allister; Di Maria, Messi, Alvarez.

Inside info

Netherlands

Top scorer in probable team Memphis Depay
Star player Virgil van Dijk
Penalty taker Memphis Depay
Assist ace Memphis Depay
Set-piece aerial threat Virgil van Dijk
Card magnet Denzel Dumfries

Argentina

Top scorer in probable team Lionel Messi
Star player Lionel Messi
Penalty taker Lionel Messi
Assist ace Lionel Messi
Set-piece aerial threat Cristian Romero
Card magnet Nicolas Otamendi

Netherlands v Argentina Bet Builder

Netherlands to win in 90 minutes The Netherlands are a tough team to beat and they can come up with the answers against Argentina

Under 2.5 goals There were no goals in the last two World Cup matches between the Netherlands and Argentina and another tight affair is on the cards

Marcos Acuna to be carded Denzel Dumfries is a huge weapon for the Dutch and his forward runs could stretch Argentina left-back Acuna, who looks a leading candidate for a card

Price guide 28-1