Croatia could deal Argentina a huge blow

World Cup Group D
BBC1, 7pm Thursday

Argentina do not seem to have progressed since their struggles in World Cup qualifying and their chances of reaching the last 16 could suffer another blow against Croatia in Nizhny Novgorod.

When the World Cup draw was made the Albiceleste's contest with Croatia stood out as one of the best ties of the group stage.

This match has become even more important for Argentina since they were held to a 1-1 draw by Iceland, rated Group D's worst team, on Saturday, and the best bet could be that they drop points again.

Argentina head coach Jorge Sampaoli is contemplating changes to system and personnel following their disappointing opening result.

A switch to a back three – a formation favoured during his four-year spell in charge of the Chilean national team - is thought to be under consideration, and pacy winger Cristian Pavon is among the players pushing for promotion from the bench.

But Argentina played with a back three without much success during South American qualifying and Sampaoli seems to be running out of time in his efforts to get the most from a talented but unbalanced group of players.

Croatia head coach Zlatko Dalic is also mulling over a tactical adjustment and is widely expected to axe at least one of his wide attacking players - Ante Rebic or Andrej Kramaric - and include an extra midfielder.

But Dalic's decision is being made from a position of strength after Croatia cruised to a 2-0 victory over Nigeria in Kaliningrad.

Croatia were not at their best against Nigeria and got little credit for the win despite looking in complete control from the moment Oghenekaro Etebo's 32nd-minute own goal put them ahead.

Nigeria looked disjointed and toothless but Croatia did what was required and could have added gloss to the scoreline had they been more clinical on the counter-attack.

Adding an extra midfielder – either Marcelo Brozovic or Mateo Kovacic – should give them a better balance, allowing Luka Modric to influence the game further forward.

Match reports

Argentina v Iceland

Croatia v Nigeria

It should mean that Argentina have less control of the midfield area than they had against Iceland. They won the possession statistics 78 per cent to 22 in that game but failed to create many clear-cut chances against Iceland and needed a brilliant individual goal from Sergio Aguero to get on the scoresheet.

With Aguero and Lionel Messi in the side, Argentina are always going to offer a huge threat in attack.

But Argentina have managed just one win in their last six competitive games, and as good as they might look on paper, their push for a knockout stage berth may be heading for a photo-finish.

Recommendation
Croatia or draw double chance
1pt 4-5 bet365, Betfair

Get exclusive free bet offers for the World Cup

The lowdown

Argentina
Team news
Cristian Pavon impressed as a substitute against Iceland and is pushing for a start at Angel Di Maria's expense.

Strengths
Sergio Aguero and Lionel Messi are obvious match-winners. Aguero came up trumps against Iceland and Messi is likely to make his mark at some stage.

Weaknesses
Goalkeeper Willy Caballero makes too many mistakes and the midfield is short of creativity since Manuel Lanzini's injury.

Key man
Aguero needed just one chance to show his class against Iceland and will need to be closely watched by the Croatian defenders.

Croatia
Team news
Nikola Kalinic has been sent home after a disagreement with manager Zlatko Dalic.

Strengths
They have an abundance of technically gifted midfielders, headlined by Ivan Rakitic and Luka Modric.

Weaknesses
Left-back has been a problem position and Ivan Strinic can expect to be tested much more than he was against Nigeria.

Star man
Ivan Perisic had a few nearly moments against Nigeria and could be ready to deliver, as he has at previous major tournaments.

Key stat
Argentina have won one of their last six competitive fixtures.

Read Racing Post Sport and racingpost.com/sport every day for the best World Cup betting coverage

World Cup quizzes

Groups A & B

Groups C & D

Groups E & F

Groups G & H

Which World Cup legend are you?

Today's top sports betting stories

Sign up to emails from Racing Post Sport and get all the latest news and tips for the World Cup

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport

Like us on Facebook RacingPostSport

If you are concerned about your gambling and are worried you may have a problem, click here to find advice on how you can receive help