Premier League top scorer 2021-22: predictions & odds for the Golden Boot

Best bets

Mohamed Salah
2pts each-way 4-1 general

Ivan Toney
0.5pt each-way 50-1 bet365, BoyleSports

Premier League top scorer prediction

The race for the Premier League Golden Boot has been dominated by Harry Kane and Mohamed Salah in recent seasons and bookmakers are expecting the prolific pair to battle it out for the accolade again.

Kane scooped the top-goalscorer prize for a third time last season as he struck 23 goals for a stuttering Spurs side, pipping familiar foe Salah by a single goal.

The uncertainty surrounding the future of Kane, who has been heavily linked with a move to champions Manchester City, overshadows his credentials this time around somewhat.

The 28-year-old is reportedly set to miss the start of the season after his Euro 2020 exertions, regardless of whether he departs north London for Manchester or not.

With Kane reportedly eager to join the champions in order to satisfy his professional ambitions, staying at Spurs could severely dent his goalscoring prospects.

Albeit it joining City has its own drawbacks when it comes to individual output as manager Pep Guardiola likes to utilise all of his power-packed squad and City invariably share the goals around.

Although Salah is highly likely to be away at the Africa Cup of Nations during the first month of 2022, there are only two Premier League fixtures scheduled at the same time as the tournament so his goalscoring potential shouldn’t be impacted too severely.

The Egyptian netted 32 goals in his debut season at Anfield in 2017-18 to clinch top-scorer honours and the following season he shared the spoils in a three-way dead-heat alongside teammate Sadio Mane and Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.

In four seasons at Liverpool, Salah has scored 95 league goals - an average of almost 24 per campaign - and, unlike Kane, he has a good record of staying injury-free.

Salah has missed just seven of Liverpool’s 152 Premier League matches since arriving on Merseyside, so should get the necessary minutes to rack up the goals.

The 29-year-old, who is on penalty duty and has an insatiable appetite for goals, looks an each-way bet to nothing at 4-1 with four places on offer.

Former champion Jamie Vardy, now 34, showed signs that his powers may be on the wane last season and may struggle to mount a challenge as he shares the goals with the rejuvenated Kelechi Iheanacho.

Arsenal’s Aubameyang has a point to prove after managing just 15 goals in 39 games in all competitions last term, while there is little confidence in Timo Werner delivering the goods after he netted only 12 times in 52 appearances during an underwhelming debut campaign at Chelsea.

Manchester United’s midfield maestro Bruno Fernandes finished third last season with 18 goals but his performance levels dipped towards the end of the season and a poor showing at Euro 2020 tempers enthusiasm, while veteran teammate Edinson Cavani, who turns 35 in February, could be saved for the big games.

There is too much competition for places and goals at the Etihad, so those looking for a bigger-priced alternative should take a chance on an unexposed runner in Brentford’s Ivan Toney.

Leeds striker Patrick Bamford showed the step up from the Championship is not as big as many believe, netting 17 goals in 38 games last season, and Toney could also take life among the elite in his stride.

The 25-year-old has come a long way since being sold by Newcastle in 2018.

After netting 24 times in 32 League One starts for Peterborough, Toney progressed again to top the Championship scoring charts for Brentford last season, firing home 31 goals in 45 games.

That’s six more than Ollie Watkins managed for the Bees in the previous campaign before he was snapped up by Aston Villa. Watkins is now an England international and bagged 14 top-flight goals last season, which augurs well for Toney being able to continue his upward trajectory in the top flight.

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