The signs are good for Champions League group winners

Three teams won their Champions League group with a maximum 18 points – Ajax, Bayern Munich and Liverpool. It happened only three times in the previous 18 seasons, all those completed since the current format was introduced.

One of those three teams with a perfect group record in previous seasons went on to lift the trophy. So the strike-rate was 33 per cent. It comes from a small sample but it was higher than for any lower points total.

The more points a team gained in their group the more likely they were to go on and lift the trophy.

The next highest total possible in a Champions League group is 16 points. Over the previous 18 seasons 17 teams won their group with 16 points and four lifted the trophy – 24 per cent.

The strike-rate carried on decreasing as the number of points carried on decreasing – until it reached zero for teams with eight points or fewer.

The strike-rates will change season by season as more data is added, but it does not seem unreasonable to draw one general conclusion from them: the better a team did in their group the more likely they are to do well in the knockout rounds.

Two teams qualify from each group – the winners and runners-up. Naturally group winners gained as many or more points than runners-up. Overall in those 18 previous season they fared better in the knockout rounds.

Twelve of the teams who lifted the trophy had been group winners compared with only six who had been runners-up. Twenty-seven of the finalists had been group winners compared with only nine who had been runners-up. Group winners were three times as likely to reach the final and twice as likely to lift the trophy.

This season the group winners were Ajax, Bayern Munich and Liverpool with 18 points, Juventus and Real Madrid with 15, Manchester City with 12, Lille and Manchester United with 11. The runners-up were Chelsea with 13 points, PSG with 11, Inter, Salzburg and Villarreal with ten, Sporting Lisbon with nine, Benfica with eight and Atletico Madrid with seven.

Chelsea and PSG finished second in groups with another top team. Chelsea got what in other seasons might have been a group winner’s draw in the round of 16, apart from having the second leg away. Chelsea play Lille, who had the joint-lowest points haul of group winners and were in one of the weakest groups. PSG play Real Madrid.

Typically in previous seasons six of the eight group runners-up were knocked out in the round of 16.

Twelve of the teams who will play in the round of 16 that starts on Tuesday come from England, France, Germany, Italy or Spain – 75 per cent. According to the latest Uefa Licensing Benchmarking Report, clubs from the top divisions of those five countries pay almost 75 per cent of the wages of clubs in the top divisions of Europe.

Here, as in so many other places, there is a correspondence between pay and performance. The richest clubs can pay the highest wages and entice the best players. In each of the last 16 seasons, I believe, the Champions League was won by a team with one of the seven highest payrolls.

We will not know the seven highest payrolls for this season until it is over and accounts are published. But looking at past Uefa Licensing Benchmarking Reports and using my judgement, I think the list for this season will most likely contain these teams in something like this order: Real Madrid, Manchester City, PSG, Liverpool, Bayern Munich, Manchester United and Chelsea.

To pay high wages a club should have a high income. Accountants Deloitte produce an annual Football Money League ranking clubs by revenue. The most recent edition covers season 2019-20.

In each of the 16 seasons from 2004-05 to 2019-20 the Champions League was won by a team who would be in the top nine of the Money League. The Money League top nine accounted for all Champions League winners, more than 90 per cent of finalists and more than 80 per cent of semi-finalists.

Another Money League covering 2020-21 should be published soon. We will not know who is in the top nine for this season until next year. But looking at previous editions and using my judgement again, I think that most likely it will include the seven teams I mentioned when talking about wages.

To summarise, the most likely winners of the Champions League are the richest clubs with the highest-paid players. Getting a lot of points in the group was a good omen. And topping the group with a lot of points was an even better one.

It takes a lot of efforts to score a goal

In Champions League group games this season one goal was scored for every 116 attempts. I do not mean there was one goal for every 116 shots or headers. I mean there was one goal for every 116 times that a team gained possession.

Every time a team get the ball they have an opportunity to score, and on average teams failed 115 times for every once that they succeeded.

Uefa on their website counted what they call times in possession. Teams averaged 116 times in possession per goal and 179 per match. (As there are two teams in every match the average total for possessions was 358).

I sometimes count possessions in Premier League games and I get lower figures, though I have seen research that gives higher figures. I would be surprised if there are many more turnovers in the Champions League than in the Premier League.

I suspect the differences come from different interpretations of a possession. If the player with the ball is fouled I do not count the free kick as the start of a new possession. I count it as another phase in the old possession. Same for throw-ins and corners – even for when a defender touches the ball but does not control it and it goes to another attacker.

However they define a possession everyone should agree on one thing: football is a game of low returns.

Uefa’s stats say that teams who finished bottom of their group averaged a whopping 282 possessions per goal, but teams who finished top of their group still averaged as many as 71 possessions per goal.

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