Dynamic duo likely to be key in helping Toffees stop the rot

A dismal return of just six points from their last 13 games has dragged Everton dangerously close to the relegation fight and spelled the end for Rafa Benitez's short Goodison reign.

Not much went right for the Spaniard and one of the biggest influences may have been bad luck with injuries, particularly to Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison.

The dynamic duo played 84 per cent of Everton’s league minutes last season but they have featured in only 25 per cent and 54 per cent respectively this term.

As the graph below highlights, the difference in the Toffees' fortunes over the past 18 months when the duo have started in tandem is in stark contrast to when they've been sat on the sidelines.

The only times that the duo have started together this season were in Everton's opening three games in which they picked up seven points and scored seven goals.

In the 16 subsequent matches, when either one or both hasn't started, Everton have lost ten times and averaged just 1.06 goals per game.

It isn't just an isolated incident, either. When we expand the sample size those numbers are in line with what happened in the previous campaign.

During the 2020-21 season, Everton collected just 1.1 points per game and averaged only one goal in the ten games when Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison did not start together. Over a full season that would have equated to a 42-point total and a 15th-placed finish last term.

When their first-choice partnership did start, Everton picked up 1.7 points per game and averaged 1.3 goals - had they continued at that pace for the entirety of the season they would have gained 65 points, the same as West Ham who finished sixth.

Calvert-Lewin, in particular, blossomed as the focal point of Carlo Ancelotti's attack. He averaged 0.48 non-penalty expected goals per game last season, which was level with Mo Salah and eclipsed only by Michail Antonio, Harry Kane and Sadio Mane of players who played more than ten games.

The England striker scored 16 of Everton’s 41 non-penalty goals (39 per cent) and only basement side Sheffield United were more reliant on their top scorer.

Benitez’s style of play was another cause for ire among the Goodison Park faithful. Only three sides complete fewer passes and have less possession in games than Everton, and his direct style may have been more efficient with Calvert-Lewin’s physical presence up top.

Despite having relatively little of the ball the Toffees attempt the fifth-most crosses into the box per game, tactics that may have led to greater success had Calvert-Lewin, who led the league in headed goals last term, been available more often.

Benitez was unfortunate that both forwards have missed so much of the season, but the 26 goals they allowed in those fateful final 13 matches of his tenure show that they were not as organised as you would expect from a team managed by the Spaniard.

Yerry Mina’s continued injury problems have been another blow in that respect, with the Colombian’s sole start since early October coming in their win over Arsenal last month.

Whoever succeeds Benitez will be the club’s sixth permanent manager since 2016, suggesting their problems run deeper which has resulted in a muddled recruitment policy.

After some costly failures in previous transfer windows, they were unable to strengthen the squad last summer due to financial fair play and that left them exposed when injuries kicked in.

Everton fans will hope the 2-1 defeat at Norwich marked the nadir.

The 54th minute-substitution to bring Richarlison on meant he was reunited with Calvert-Lewin for the first time since matchday three and, if the pair can remain healthy, they could be the catalysts for a revival.

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