Burnley and Watford need major upturn in form to avoid Premier League relegation

There is only one Premier League game this weekend but it's a clash of vital importance in the battle to beat the drop, with 20th-placed Burnley hosting 19th-placed Watford.

Both teams are strongly fancied to be playing Championship football next season, with the Clarets 4-7 and the Hornets 1-3 to be relegated, and the accompanying graph shows the scale of the task facing them.

Over the past five Premier League seasons the average points needed to finish 17th, and therefore stay up, is 37.

Due to the lack of points collected by the bottom four this season -Burnley have 12 points from 18 games, Watford 14 from 20, Newcastle 15 from 21 and Norwich 16 from 22 - spread-betting firms reckon that number is more likely to be 35 this term.

For the purpose of this article I have split the difference and projected 36 to be the magic number.

Burnley have plenty of games in hand on their survival rivals but are collecting only 0.67 points per game. They would need to pick up 24 points from their final 20 games to reach 36 – a hefty improvement to 1.2 points per game for the remainder of the season.

It's a similar story for Watford, whose new manager Roy Hodgson takes charge of his first game at Turf Moor. They would need to accumulate 22 points from their last 18 games – a rate of 1.22 points per game, significantly more than their current rate of 0.7.

To put those numbers into perspective, both teams need to raise their level for the rest of the campaign and pick up points at a rate similar to the 12th-placed side.

Watford's situation is made harder by the fact that they still have to play all of the current top five away from home. It is hard to see them collecting many points from those fixtures and they have already twice played fellow bottom-four teams Norwich and Newcastle.

Hodgson's men need to get wins on the board soon and they won't have many better opportunities than their meetings with the Clarets this weekend and at the end of April at Vicarage Road.

Getting wins on the board is something Burnley have struggled to do and they have claimed just one league victory all season. Sean Dyche's side have been typically competitive, however, drawing nine times in 18 games – only Brighton (12 draws in 22) have recorded a higher proportion of stalemates.

Burnley must start turning some of those draws into wins but they should take heart from their run in 2018-19. Faced with a similar task, having picked up 12 points through 19 games, they won 28 points in the second half of the season to climb to 15th place.

History suggests at least one of the current bottom four will pick up the pace. The bookies reckon that is most likely to be Newcastle after their spending spree.

The Clarets also strengthened with the signing of striker Wout Weghorst while Watford are pinning their hopes that another change in the dugout will spark a revival after Roy Hodgson’s arrival.

Both need to get wins on the board soon and won’t have many better opportunities than on Saturday.

Not got a bet365 account? Bet £10 & get £50 in free bets

Open account offer. Minimum deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as bet credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Minimum odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude bet credits stake. Time limits/T&Cs apply. 18+ begambleaware.org

MORE FREE BETS

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport