Simon Giles: Premier League improvers are making life difficult for title hopefuls

Why a 90-plus points haul may not be required to land the title

Tottenham, who were top of the Premier League after ten games last season, always looked likely to regress given their underlying numbers but this term's early table-toppers Liverpool may keep up the pace.

Like most top sides, the Reds are exceeding Opta Analyst’s expected-points model, which is based on expected goals, but that metric still ranks them two points ahead of Manchester City – the same gap as the actual league table.

Liverpool are on a tough run of fixtures but have played an equal number of sides forecast to finish in the top and bottom halves according to the spread-betting firms.

Arne Slot's Reds are outcreating opponents by a similar margin to Jurgen Klopp's side last term but with more versatility. This term, unlike last season, Liverpool have had better luck with injuries than their title rivals.

Questioning City's credentials at this stage of the season has proved a mistake for punters in recent years. This term, though, they have been more vulnerable, keeping only two clean sheets – the last time they had fewer than four shutouts in their first ten games was in Pep Guardiola's first season in 2016-17.

City may reinforce their squad in January but they look like a mid-80 point team at present.

Arsenal will be hoping that is the case after only showing title-contending spark in patches at the start of the season, not helped by injuries and red cards.

Maybe, like Liverpool in a couple of seasons under Klopp, the Gunners will never quite get healthy enough to challenge for the title. Or maybe we have seen their 'bad' run and they are primed to capitalise on a soft sequence of fixtures after November's internationals.

To get to 85 points, Arsenal can afford to drop only 17 more points, requiring 67 from their remaining 28 games. They claimed 65 points over that period last term.

Tottenham have the best open-play attacking metrics in the division. When Spurs are good, they are very good, although their aggressive approach means they are punished heavily when the intensity drops.

Chelsea have yet to face any of the three promoted sides so they get a fixture-boost after the international break.

Mid-table clubs are packing a punch

This is a busy time of the season for the teams in European competitions and their lives are being made harder by a pack of competitive mid-table sides.

Nottingham Forest's superb start sees them third in the table. That is only a slight overachievement from their expected-points ranking of sixth, fuelled by excellent defensive metrics that are second only to Liverpool.

Some regression is likely, especially as Forest have the third-hardest set of fixtures up to the halfway point of the season.

But, since Nuno Espirito Santo took over last December, they rank 11th for points, fourth for goals conceded and sixth for xG difference per 90.

Nuno's compatriot Marco Silva is doing a similarly excellent job at Fulham, who have allowed the seventh-fewest shots in the division. The margins have been fine in many of their matches but they have 'won' on xG in nine of their ten fixtures – joint-best with Liverpool.

Perhaps early exits from the EFL Cup and not being in Europe will help Forest and Fulham maintain their intensity for longer.

Bournemouth swarmed over Manchester City from kick-off last weekend, adding a 2-1 win over the champions to a 2-0 defeat of Arsenal on October 19.

The Cherries recorded 19 shots at Anfield and their position in the top half of both the actual and expected-goals tables is impressive considering that they have faced the second-toughest fixtures.

The biggest disappointments are …

West Ham and Crystal Palace may have been expecting to feature in the previous section but they have seen the greatest reduction in their spread-betting projected season points, with their quotes falling by ten points.

The Hammers were criticised for being too negative under David Moyes. At least their plans were identifiable, unlike this term, as an ineffective press has led to teams regularly breaking through their lines and their total of 18 shots conceded to fast breaks is six more than any other side.

West Ham rank 14th in expected points but they still have four of the projected bottom-five teams to play before the season's midpoint.

Palace rank 15th in expected points but have undershot their total by 4.8 points, the second-largest disparity.

They have lost by more than one goal only once and can expect some positive regression from the division's worst conversion rate. Creating more 'big' chances would be useful on that front as they have the lowest average shot quality.

… but the promoted sides still look the weakest

Wolves' nightmare start has been well documented but, despite their difficult opening fixtures, their underlying numbers are better than Ipswich's and at the same level of Southampton and Leicester.

Defensive improvement is a must for Wanderers but they have conceded 7.9 more goals than their xG against, the second-greatest disparity after ten games since FBref records began in 2017.

The six teams with similar negative variance all conceded fewer actual goals per game for the rest of the season, with an average decrease of 0.83.

Positive regression and the fixture list offer hope for Wolves but the fact that Leicester have ten points on the board has put the pressure on.

The Foxes are running hot at both ends of the pitch and have benefited from opposition red cards in two of their last three games. That cannot last and Leicester, along with Everton, face the greatest increase in fixture difficulty to the midpoint of the campaign.

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