Leicester City are serious contenders for a Premier League top-four finish

Football trader Jason Murphy gives us the inside info on Leicester City's potential.

Are Leicester the real deal?

Prior to the appointment of Brendan Rodgers on February 26, Leicester had just lost four consecutive home games for the first time since January 2000 and were averaging only 1.19 points per game (PPG) for the season.

Claude Puel was accused at times of playing negative football, with Rodgers appointed to get more out of this young, promising squad by implementing a possession-based, attacking style.

By coming in with a third of last season remaining, Rodgers had the opportunity to implement his ideas immediately and be in the best
position possible for this term.

In terms of challenging the big six, Manchester City and Liverpool are playing a different game to the rest, but I have Leicester well-placed with the others.

Results under Rodgers back this up. Leicester average 1.82 PPG (17 games) - that is higher than Tottenham (1.12), Arsenal (1.65), Chelsea (1.67) or Manchester Utd (1.29) in the same period.

Their expected goal difference (0.36) is also superior to Arsenal (-0.12) and Spurs (-0.05). Chelsea’s is the best at 0.67 and another indication of the underrated success Maurizio Sarri really was at Chelsea last season.

United’s is a surprising 0.63, and 1.04 for this season alone. Those numbers indicate United are much better defensively (0.77 better in terms of expected goals against) this season and that Ole Gunnar Solskjaer probably used up all his luck in the unlikely run that got him the job full-time.

Going away from the numbers, Leicester are arguably in a better position than the others too. They have a young, settled side with an experienced manager that knows how they want to play. Rodgers
(with big help from Luis Suarez) has come closer to winning the league than Mauricio Pochettino has ever done in his time at Spurs.

It is hard to say with Tottenham if this is just a bad run or if it is the end of the journey for this group of players and manager, while Rodgers has significantly more Premier League managerial experience over the others.

Despite having longer than Rodgers, Unai Emery and Solskjaer have still not established a cohesive identity in Arsenal’s or United’s style of play. Chelsea’s overall long-term trajectory is positive but by no means are they currently ahead of Leicester.

Another approach is to compare the spine of these teams, their best five-a-side if you will.

Key players in key positions make the difference in terms of pricing so who would you pick out of those five squads in each key position?

Allow some poetic license here in terms of exact positions but
starting with the goalkeeper, Kasper Schmeichel would get my pick on current form.

He also has made only five errors leading to goals in 177 Premier League games (1 in every 35 games).

That is a better rate than Hugo Lloris and David de Gea. Bernd Leno has made more (six) in only 38 games. Kepa Arrizabalaga has not made any direct errors yet, I would still rather title-winner Schmeichel commanding my defence.

Jonny Evans was described by Ferguson as "arguably the best defender in the country" in 2012 and I still think it was a mistake for United and Louis van Gaal to let him go.

United paid £80 million for his Leicester teammate in the summer, yet Evans managed more interceptions and clearances per 90
minutes than Harry Maguire last season.

Defensive midfielder would be N'Golo Kante, even though his role at Chelsea has changed since Jorginho’s arrival.

Still, Wilfred Ndidi averaged 3.8 tackles and 2.2 interceptions last season, the second best in the league in his position, placing him just behind Idrissa Gueye.

Ndidi’s numbers are already up this season on last and at 22 he should only get better. He would go straight into the team at Arsenal, United and even Tottenham. The same goes for Youri Tielemans and Leicester’s midfield is arguably the best of the five clubs.

Further up the pitch it is personal preference. Since Rodgers appointment, there is a strong case to be made that James Maddison and Jamie Vardy have performed better than any other player in
their respective positions.

Maddison created more chances than any player in the league last season and has kicked on again this term, while Vardy has 13 goals in 17 appearances under Rodgers.

Vardy can do it in the big games too. His 34 goals in 56 games against the top six is only bettered by Sergio Aguero and Wayne Rooney.

Despite all this, the market still rates Leicester worse than the others.

Odds of 5-4 for the home team in Premier League means, on average, the market rates the starting 11's the same and it is home
advantage that has them favourites.

Leicester did shorten significantly against both United and Tottenham this season, but there were significant omissions in their opponents.

United still went off 5-4 at home to Leicester, therefore, the market rated a full-strength Leicester only the same and not better than a very weakened United side. A similar story can be told from the prices Leicester were against Chelsea away and Tottenham at home.

So will Leicester get top six? I think they are a bet at 11-8 with the other big clubs set to falter further and with the current squad and manager are more than good enough to get top four at 4-1.

However, there won't be any repeat title success.

They got 81 points the year they won it. Getting to that number again would be an incredible over-achievement but thanks to City and Liverpool, you need to be closer to 100 points these days.

The title is out of the question but the Foxes should be in the hunt for Champions League qualification.

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