Aston Villa v Manchester City predictions: Big upset opportunity for Villans

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for the Premier League clash between Aston Villa and Manchester City at Villa Park on Wednesday.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Premier League & Main Event, 8.15pm, Wednesday

Best bet

Aston Villa
1pt 8-1 general

Team news

Aston Villa
Jack Grealish and Trezeguet are missing. Wesley is close to a return. Morgan Sanson should be fit.

Manchester City
Kevin de Bruyne has been ruled out.

Match preview

Manchester City's quad chase has turned into a pursuit of the treble, though the only threefold on their mind is ensuring that they don't lose to an English opponent for a third game in a row when they visit Villa Park.

A disappointing 2-1 home defeat by ten-man Leeds in the Premier League was followed by Saturday's thoroughly deserved exit from the FA Cup at the hands of Chelsea.

And now there's a potentially awkward trip to Aston Villa to navigate as a prelude to a crucial week in their season, featuring the League Cup final against Tottenham and a Champions League semi-final showdown in Paris against PSG.

It would have been more awkward had Jack Grealish been casting spells on one side of the pitch and Villa have definitely gone off the boil in his absence.

But presuming Pep Guardiola, himself starved of the services of Kevin De Bruyne, makes yet more changes to keep his aces up his sleeve for Wembley's set-to with a Mourinho-less Spurs, then City may well be worth opposing.

And when you see odds of 8-1 posted by Villa's name, it makes the decision-making process that little bit easier.

Villa go into this game nicely rested having had an 11-day break since they lucklessly went down 2-1 at Liverpool.

Yes, they've won only two of their last nine but Dean Smith was happy enough with their effort at Anfield and so he should have been.

Villa's last four top-flight tussles with City have ended in an aggregate battering of 15-1 but they caused the champions-elect plenty of problems at the Etihad in January, when they were heading for a 0-0 draw until the home team struck twice in the last 11 minutes.

That kind of effort, and the fact that Villa are sitting ever so prettily in mid-table, shows quite what an improved side the Villans are, and they will pose questions if they can get hold of the ball.

You have to go back to April 2018 for the last time that Manchester City lost three games in a row against English sides and they absolutely deserve to be short-priced favourites in Birmingham. They just a look little too short.

Without De Bruyne they are weakened, Raheem Sterling has stopped performing, the goals have dried up for him and Gabriel Jesus, and even Ederson has made a mistake. Hardly a crisis but it's enough to encourage Villa and 8-1 the home team ought to be a tempter for punters.

Key stat

City have scored only one first-half goal in their last six matches.

Not got a bet365 account? Sign up today and get up to £100 in bet credits

Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365. Min deposit £5. Bet Credits available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply.

CLAIM OFFER HERE

MORE FREE BETS

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport