Arsenal v Newcastle predictions: Gunners could be pushed to the max

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Arsenal v Newcastle United in the Premier League on Saturday.

Where to watch

BT Sport 1, Saturday 12.30pm

Best bet

BTTS & over 2.5
2pts 11-10 bet365, Boyles

Allan Saint-Maximin first scorer
1pt each-way 14-1 general

Team news

Arsenal
Granit Xhaka and Sead Kolasinac are still unavailable. Kieran Tierney is pushing for a recall.

Newcastle
Paul Dummett is out while Dwight Gayle is a major doubt. Fabian Schar has been passed fit.

Match preview

Eddie Howe has been passed fit to oversee new employers Newcastle from the dugout for the first time and the former Bournemouth boss is bracing himself for a white-knuckle ride at The Emirates.

Goals aren't usually plentiful when Arsenal take to the pitch – seven of their 12 top-flight outings this season have produced two goals or fewer – but they are when the Toon are in town.

Howe's debut, albeit assessed from his bedroom courtesy of Covid, was an enjoyable 3-3 draw against Brentford which encapsulated everything that was good and bad about the team that Steve Bruce bequeathed.

And given the way Howe wants to play coupled with the fact that they can't defend, the statistics relating to the visitors are probably the more significant when looking for a bet.

Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 11-10 looks a definite way to go – we've seen that combo materialise in six of the Magpies' games already.

Arsenal are around the 1-2 mark in 90-minute betting and while that's a price that's definitely hard to dispute, they are no sort of a bet.

Forget last week's mauling at Anfield – Newcastle are no Liverpool – but it's also unwise to get too obsessed with the Gunners' unbeaten streak in the build-up to that 4-0 loss. If Aaron Ramsdale wasn't their keeper, they wouldn't be fifth.

There's no question they have improved under Mikel Arteta as the season has progressed but they can be got at and Newcastle, for all their flaws, are exactly the type of side who possess the tools to get at them.

Howe will have invoked an urgency and a physicality into the Magpies and has already – according to Jonjo Shelvey – improved fitness levels, something that was stopping them from seeing out games. Considering Howe hasn't attended a training session this week, that's some progress.

Arsenal play with a high line which they still aren't good enough to police properly and consistently, and the way they play out from the back can be a hindrance especially against a team who will get at them. Bruce's Newcastle would never have done, but Howe's just might.

The sort of player who can benefit from all this is Allan Saint-Maximin, the speedy Frenchman who was on target against Brentford last weekend with his third goal of the season and should get chances against the Gunners.

It's also worth bearing in mind that Newcastle are marginally better organised away than at home, where they have conceded five fewer goals, although the bottom line, as Howe knows only too well, is that they are yet to win this term.

Their propensity for conceding soft goals makes them hard to fancy, even if it does turn into a basketball match. But it's also worth remembering that Newcastle, for all their faults, have conceded only two more efforts on goal than Arsenal over the first 12 matches, a fact that illustrates the importance of having a decent keeper.

Key stat

Newcastle (14.8) and Arsenal (14.6) are in the top seven for shots conceded per game this season.

Inside info

Arsenal

Penalty taker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
Free-kicks wizard Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang/Martin Odegaard
Card magnet Sambi Lokonga
Set piece aerial threat Gabriel

Newcastle

Penalty taker Callum Wilson
Free-kick wizard Jacob Murphy/Jonjo Shelvey
Card magnet Jamaal Lascelles/Matt Ritchie
Set piece aerial threat Jamaal Lascelles

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