Spain v Italy predictions, betting tips and odds

Where to watch Spain v Italy

Viaplay Sports 1, 7.45pm Thursday

Best bet

Italy to qualify
1pt 5-4 BoyleSports

Spain v Italy odds

Spain 5-4
Italy 12-5
Draw 11-5

Odds correct at time of publishing

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Spain v Italy team news

Spain
Pedri (thigh) is unavailable and Juan Bernat has had to withdraw from the squad, prompting a call up for Fran Garcia.

Italy
Domenico Berardi and Matteo Pessina miss out due to injuries.

Spain v Italy predictions

Spain were 2-1 winners against Italy in the 2021 Nations League semi-finals but the Azzurri can gain revenge by coming through their final-four clash at De Grolsch Veste in Enschede.

This week's meeting will be the third occasion in two years that Spain and Italy have crossed paths in the semi-finals of a major tournament.

And the most significant event was their Euro 2020 clash in July 2021 which Italy came through after a penalty shootout success.

Goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma was the hero at Wembley that evening, saving a weak spot kick from Alvaro Morata, and his significant presence could come in handy once again if the teams play out another stalemate.

If there is to be a winner inside normal or extra-time Italy look the most likely.

The Italians saved their best performances for the big occasions at Euro 2020 and have arrived in the Netherlands with 15 of the players who were part of that successful squad.

There is less continuity in the Spain setup and it may take a while for Oscar de la Fuente, appointed in December, to turn their fortunes around.

The Iberians had a disappointing time at the Qatar World Cup and are off to a mixed start in Euro 2024 qualifying after a 3-0 success at home to Norway and a 2-0 loss away to Scotland.

Their defeat at Hampden Park was a humbling experience which showed how far they have slipped since reaching the semi-finals at Euro 2020.

Classy midfielder Pedri was their standout player two summers ago but he has suffered from persistent injury problems, including his latest thigh issue which rules him out of Nations League duty.

The Iberians have Champions League winner Rodri at the heart of a decent midfield featuring skilful Sociedad schemer Mikel Merino, but they look short in both penalty boxes and may struggle to advance past the Azzurri.

Key stat

Spain have won just one of their last five matches

Probable teams

Spain (4-3-3): Simon; Carvajal, Nacho, Laporte, Alba; Merino, Rodri, Zubimendi; Asensio, Morata, Gavi.
Subs: Arrizabalaga, Le Normand, Rodrigo, Navas, Ruiz, Canales, Pino, Fati, Olmo.

Italy (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Acerbi, Bastoni, Spinazzola; Barella, Jorginho, Verratti; Chiesa, Immobile, Pellegrini.
Subs: Meret, Dimarco, Darmian, Bonucci, Frattesi, Zaniolo, Cristante, Retegui, Gnonto.