Netherlands v Croatia predictions, betting tips and odds

Where to watch Netherlands v Croatia

Viaplay Sports 1, 7.45pm Wednesday

Best bets

Italy to win the Nations League
1pt 3-1 general

Netherlands to beat Croatia
2pts Evs general

Netherlands v Croatia odds

Netherlands Evs
Croatia 29-10
Draw 12-5

Odds correct at time of publishing

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Netherlands v Croatia team news

Netherlands
Memphis Depay has failed to shake off a calf injury.

Croatia
Josko Gvardiol misses out with a groin injury and Marko Livaja has pulled out of the squad.

Netherlands v Croatia predictions

Italy's absence from the 2022 World Cup was an extraordinary comedown for the European champions but they return to tournament football at this week's Nations League finals and look decent value to lift the trophy.

Hosts Netherlands kick off the tournament with a semi-final clash against Croatia and the winners will have the advantage of an extra day's preparation for the final against Spain or Italy.

Having to play two high-intensity games in four days is not ideal, but the second semi-final looks the stronger of the two matches and Italy appear the more likely to come through it.

Roberto Mancini has assembled a powerful, well-balanced squad, bolstered by the return of experienced captain Leonardo Bonucci and centre-forward Ciro Immobile.

There will be no shortage of leadership and there are some talented youngsters at Mancini's disposal with attackers Wilfied Gnonto and Mateo Retegui eager to impress in their first senior international tournament.

While Italy appear to be at full strength, each of their tournament rivals are missing key players.

Netherlands are going to have to manage without top scorer Memphis Depay, who is sidelined with a calf strain.

And Croatia and Spain are substantially weakened by the absence of Josko Gvardiol and Pedri.

In a tournament of fine margins the loss of star individuals could make a major difference, and it may be Italy's strength-in-depth which sees them to the winning post.

The Netherlands should at least book themselves a place in the final at the expense of Croatia.

Ronald Koeman's second stint in the Oranje hotseat got off to a dreadful start with a 4-0 loss away to France at the start of Euro 2024 qualifying, but the 60-year-old has had a couple of months to work on finding some solutions.

Koeman favours a more attacking, possession-based approach than his predecessor Louis van Gaal, so there was always the potential for some teething problems.

His team's deficiencies were ruthless exposed by France superstar Kylian Mbappe, who scored two and set up another of Les Bleus' four goals.

But there is nowhere near the same counter-attacking threat from Croatia, who probably reached the very peak of their potential with a run to the 2022 World Cup semi-finals.

Croatia went way beyond expectations in Qatar thanks to some high-quality football allied to a fiercely competitive spirit and outstanding mental strength.

Solid defence was also a crucial component of their achievement and the top performer among the back four was Gvardiol, who was one of two Croatia players, alongside goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic, named in Fifa's official team of the tournament.

Gvardiol's absence may present an opportunity for Sassuolo's promising 25-year-old defender Martin Erlic, but Croatia's powers of resistance will be weakened and their hosts can take advantage.

Depay's absence forces a rejig in the Oranje attack, but the likely front three of Steven Bergwijn, Cody Gakpo and Xavier Simons are talented enough to expose the understrength Croatians and send the Dutch through to Sunday's final.

Key stat

Netherlands have won seven of their last eight Nations League matches

Probable teams

Netherlands (4-3-3): Bijlow; Timber, De Ligt, Van Dijk, Ake; De Roon, De Jong, Wijnaldum; Bergwijn, Gakpo, Simons.
Subs: Noppert, Koopmeiners, Dumfries, Wieffer, Lang, Malacia, Malen, Weghorst, Geertruida.

Croatia (4-3-3): Livakovic; Juranovic, Sutalo, Erlic, Sosa; Modric, Brozovic, Kovacic; Pasalic, Kramaric, Perisic.
Subs: Labrovic, Vlasic, Petkovic, Musa, Vida, Ivanusec, Stanisic, Barisic. Majer.