Finland vs England prediction, betting tips and odds: Refocused Lions can floor the Finns

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Where to watch Finland vs England

You can watch Finland vs England in the Nations League live on ITV1 at 5pm on Sunday, October 13.

Match prediction & best bet

England & under 3.5 goals
1pt 21-20 BoyleSports

Recommended

4/5

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Finland vs England odds

Finland 10-1
England 2-7
Draw 24-5

Odds correct at time of publishing

Finland vs England predictions

England's surprising 2-1 loss to Greece has left them with no room for error in Nations League Group B2, but they can keep their promotion hopes alive by defeating Finland in Helsinki.

Interim England head coach Lee Carsley got his tactics wrong against the Greeks and could have no complaints after his team succumbed to better-organised and apparently hungrier opponents.

After the game Carsley insisted on having no regrets about deploying a striker-free system, but he seems certain to revert to more orthodox methods against the Finns, whether captain Harry Kane is fit enough to start the game or not.

Experimenting with different formations and personnel would normally make sense at this point in the international calendar with Euro 2024 in the rear-view mirror and the start of 2026 World Cup qualifying five months away.

But Carsley will be aware of the importance of making a positive short-term impression to strengthen his chances of landing the job on a permanent basis. 

It shouldn't be too difficult for him to come up with an effective, winning formula against the Finns, who are propping up the standings after three defeats.

Finland wasted their best chance of a victory on Thursday when losing 2-1 at home to Ireland.

Markku Kanerva's side started positively and forged ahead with Joel Pohjanpalo's 17th-minute goal, but they were unable to kick on and paid the price when visiting substitute Festy Ebosele teed up Robbie Brady for a well-deserved 88th-minute winner.

The Finns could be on the back foot from the start against England, who defeated them 2-0 at Wembley last month, winning the shot count 22-2.

Finland favoured a deep-lying defence at Wembley and the tactic worked to a degree with England having to wait until the 57th minute for Kane' to break the deadlock with the first of his two goals on his 100th appearance for the Three Lions.

However, Kanerva's outfit failed to test Jordan Pickford and they may be in for a similar experience in Helsinki against a Three Lions side with a point to prove.

England might struggle to replicate the slick football of their Nations League opener in Dublin, but they can move on from their midweek mess by securing a routine, low-scoring success.

Key stat

England's last 12 matches have all featured fewer than four goals

Finland vs England team news

Finland
Midfielder Kaan Kairinen withdrew from the squad before the 2-1 loss at home to Ireland.

England
Bukayo Saka (muscle strain) is set to miss out but Harry Kane and Jack Grealish should be back in contention.

Probable teams

Finland (4-2-3-1): Hradecky; Stahl, Hoskonen, Ivanov, Galvez; Walta, Schuller; Lod, Kamara, Keskinen; Pohjanpalo.
Subs: Uronen, Joronen, Jensen, Pukki, Antman, Peltola, Alho.

England (4-1-4-1): Pickford; Walker, Guehi, Stones, Colwill; Rice; Madueke, Gallagher, Bellingham, Palmer; Kane.
Subs: Alexander-Arnold, Lewis, Foden, Gomes, Gordon, Watkins, Grealish.

Finland vs England bet builder predictions

England to win
England are likely to be refocused after their poor midweek performance and should return to winning ways against the section's basement boys.

Jude Bellingham to score at any time
The 21-year-old was on target against Greece and can help himself to a goal or two in Helsinki.

Rasmus Schuller to be carded
Finland will be under pressure to break up England attacks and much of their destructive work could be carried out by Rasmus Schuller, who was carded in last month's 2-0 loss at Wembley.

Pays out at 11-1 with Paddy Power

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