Southampton v Manchester City predictions: Citizens having trouble with Saints

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Southampton v Manchester City in the FA Cup quarter-final

Where to watch

BBC One, 3pm Sunday

Best bet

Southampton to win either half
1pt 10-3 Hills

Team news

Southampton
Keeper Alex McCarthy and defender Lyanco are non-runners.

Manchester City
Ruben Dias is back in training.

Match preview

Southampton, one of only three teams to have played Manchester City twice in the Premier League this season and not lost, can defy their own indifferent form and make life awkward once again for Pep Guardiola's treble-chasers.

Just a few days after Crystal Palace became the third team to complete the 'no-lose' double over City – Tottenham are the other one – Saints get a third tilt at the champions in the FA Cup, and definitely have grounds for quiet optimism.

They were fairly unlucky to draw 0-0 at The Etihad in September, when City had Kyle Walker sent off for conceding a penalty, only for VAR to overturn both calls. Every bit as good as the result for the Saints was the fact that City mustered just one shot on target.

City were a different beast at St Mary's in January, hitting the woodwork twice in a 1-1 draw where the luck definitely lay with Ralph Hasenhuttl's side.

But however unfair the outcome in the eyes of City fans, the fact is Southampton avoided defeat against City for the third time in their last five meetings, and have a playing style that can fluster Guardiola.

The other grounds for Southampton optimism is the fact that City are going through a quieter period where results are generally okay but performances aren't sparkling.

And given all that, City make no obvious appeal at 1-3 following a pair of 0-0 draws.

The flip side, of course, is that Southampton have suddenly hit the buffers following their post-Christmas surge, although it's possible that with mid-table safety secured all eyes have been on this tie.

Their last win was a well-earned 3-1 triumph over a very strong West Ham side in the fifth round, a seventh game in succession they hadn't lost, a run that included the draw against City plus another one at Manchester United and a magnificent 3-2 triumph at Tottenham.

Since hobbling the Hammers, however, they've been holed badly by Aston Villa, Newcastle and Watford, matches in which even their most pessimistic of followers would have expected six or seven points, but which yielded precisely none.

When Saints get it right – and even amid the recent wreckage there have been flashes – they are a threat, notably from James Ward-Prowse's set-piece deliveries, but also the running of the likes of Stuart Armstrong and in particular Armando Broja, who is a future star.

They're 9-1 shots, which is understandable given there are 35 points between these two in the table.

But Saints will have their moments and since City have failed to score in either of their last two matches, the hosts to win a half at 10-3 is suggested. They've won either half in three of their last six showdowns with City and in 20 matches in all competitions this term.

Key stat

Southampton have won either half in five of their six cup ties this season

Inside info

Southampton

Penalty taker James Ward-Prowse
Free-kick wizard James Ward-Prowse
Set-piece aerial threat Jan Bednarek
Card magnet Oriol Romeu

Manchester City

Penalty taker Riyad Mahrez
Free-kick wizardRiyad Mahrez
Set-piece aerial threatJohn Stones
Card magnetFernandinho

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