Simon Giles: Defensive strength boosts highflying Forest's chances of FA Cup glory

Unpredictability has been the name of the game in the 2024-25 Premier League as the campaign has been defined by frequent setbacks for the traditional big guns.

In contrast, several clubs whose top priority is usually to stay out of the relegation fight have used savvy recruitment and managerial excellence to ascend into the upper reaches of the table.

But can that unpredictability continue in the FA Cup? The competition's folklore demands upsets but its recent roll of honour has an all-too-familiar look. Since the start of the Premier League in 1992-93 one of Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City and Manchester United has won the FA Cup in 28 of 32 seasons. Those five clubs and Tottenham have often been singled out as the top flight's big six, although eight-time FA Cup winners Spurs haven't lifted the trophy since 1991.

Greater squad depth has often been the top clubs' trump card but the expanded fixture list has pushed them past breaking point more regularly this season.

The next wave of teams have benefited from greater time on the training-ground to fine-tune their gameplans and are increasingly capable of exposing their illustrious rivals' weaknesses.

Luck on the day and luck in the draw remain crucial factors in a good FA Cup run but which sides look best placed to take the competition more seriously than usual given their relative comfort in the Premier League?

Nottingham Forest

One of the stories of the season is Nottingham Forest's surge up to third in the table after becoming the only team to string together six straight league wins this term.

At the start of the week it was still possible to get 50-1 about Forest for the cup, in line with their pre-season rating at a similar level to Everton and Wolves, and that highlights how stale ante-post markets can become.

Their underlying data paints them as around the eighth-best team in the division and they rank even higher in defensive metrics, which are often rewarded in knockout football.

But Forest's lofty position gives them the rare opportunity to do something special in the league and they could be forgiven for prioritising that over a cup run.

Their busy transfer activity in recent windows means they have reasonable squad depth and, with leaders Liverpool visiting the City Ground just a few days after Saturday's tie with Luton, Nuno Espirito Santo may look to use it.

His Wolves side reached the FA Cup semi-finals in 2018-19 and, even though Forest were relegation candidates last term, he still picked strong sides in the cup.

In the third and fourth rounds, Nuno made four and zero changes to his starting line-ups, compared to the preceding league game.

The second half of the season will surely see Forest challenged more by opponents' adjustments, as they show them increased respect, seeking to avoid falling into their counter-attack trap.

However, as long as Nuno's defence stays healthy, they should continue to be competitive in most matches.

Newcastle

Few teams demonstrate the knife-edge nature of this season better than Newcastle. The Magpies were viewed as one of 2024-25's biggest disappointments when lying 12th just over three weeks ago but since then they have claimed seven wins in a row.

They are on the brink of the EFL Cup final following Tuesday's 2-0 semi-final first-leg win at Arsenal and that competition clearly provides the best hope of satisfying the Toon Army's craving for a trophy.

Indeed, this season has started to resemble Newcastle's 2022-23 campaign in which, without European distractions, they were EFL Cup runners-up and finished in the top four.

The FA Cup was their one blip as they made eight line-up changes before losing to Sheffield Wednesday.

A home tie with League Two Bromley should prove easier to navigate. However, Eddie Howe knows his side's status as one of the division's top five or six teams is reliant on key individuals – particularly red-hot striker Alexander Isak – staying fit so he may balance workloads accordingly.

Pau Torres's (left) Aston Villa are seven-time FA Cup winnersCredit: DeFodi Images

Aston Villa

Even renowned cup maestro Unai Emery has been unable to improve Aston Villa's dismal recent FA Cup record, which has seen them win only two ties since 2016.

Emery has won the Europa League a combined four times with Sevilla and Villarreal, reached the final of the same competition with Arsenal and claimed both French cups with Paris St-Germain. Yet his English cup record consists mostly of early exits.

That is not for want of trying as last season he made only four changes in Villa's third-round win against Middlesbrough, two in their fourth-round draw with Chelsea and one in the replay, which they lost.

Emery appeared to learn from his 2022-23 FA Cup experience when a rotated Villa side blew a 1-0 lead to lose against Stevenage thanks to a late red card and a penalty.

His side are a danger to anyone on their day, even if Champions League involvement has stretched them further this season.

Villa have avoided a serious injury crisis but had to manage a steady stream of absentees, with Pau Torres and John McGinn the most recent setbacks.

Bournemouth

A couple of seasons ago Brighton were the Premier League's analytics darlings but they have been replaced by Bournemouth in that department.

The Cherries underlying data is strong. They have created the second-most chances in the league which has helped them put together an eight-match unbeaten run, although recent attacking injuries may have lowered their ceiling.

Last season Andoni Iraola made between five and seven changes in their three FA Cup ties, culminating in an extra-time elimination to Championship opponents Leicester.

He does have cup pedigree, having steered Rayo Vallecano through a favourable draw to the Copa del Rey semi-finals in 2021-22, matching his achievement with second-tier Mirandes, who eliminated three La Liga outfits in 2019-20.

Iraola has highlighted that his squad is versatile, rather than large, and the injury to Evanilson last Saturday is a big blow.

The striker plays an important role leading Bournemouth's press, as well as notching five goals and winning five penalties, and back-up frontman Enes Unal picked up an injury this week.

Brighton

The solid Seagulls have suffered only four league defeats in 20 matches although naivety, both tactically and from the division's second-youngest squad, means they have lost the third-most points from winning positions.

Brighton were outshooting their underlying data when flying high in fifth this season and regression has caught up with them, although they have not had much luck with injuries either.

After some hefty summer spending, the 2019 and 2023 FA Cup semi-finalists have the squad to be dangerous if their players stay fit but they are severely hampered in defence.

Fabian Hurzeler's second-division St Pauli side reached the last eight of the German Cup last term, albeit without facing top-flight opposition, before losing on penalties to Fortuna Dusseldorf.

Brentford

The Bees are yet to make it past the FA Cup fourth round in three seasons as a top-flight side but they have two forwards with double-figure goal tallies – Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa – which is something no other Premier League side can boast.

A safe mid-table position may mean that Thomas Frank is more up for the cup than usual, particularly now that Brentford have come through the busy festive period despite plenty of absentees.

But Frank's team selection for last month's EFL quarter-final defeat at Newcastle, where he named Mbeumo on the bench, suggests he won’t flog his squad to maximise cup runs.

West Ham

New boss Graham Potter is regarded more as a project manager rather than one who makes instant waves and the Hammers face a tough third-round trip to Aston Villa.

Crystal Palace

Palace boss Oliver Glasner has tasted knockout success, winning the Europa League and reaching the German final with Eintracht Frankfurt.

Since the start of December, the Eagles rank sixth for points and eighth on expected goals, although widening the gap between them and the relegation zone remains the priority.

Fulham

The Cottagers faced Watford on Thursday night and Marco Silva's recent cup strategy has been to rotate in the early rounds but take the latter stages more seriously, as demonstrated by EFL Cup semi-final appearances with the Cottagers last season and Hull in 2016-17.

Even if Fulham lose to the Hornets, their Premier League prospects look decent as they are arguably the division's most efficient side.

They have failed to score in only two of 20 games, a feat only leaders Liverpool have eclipsed, and have conceded more than one goal in just six matches – a stat bettered only by Arsenal, Newcastle and Forest who share a figure of five.

That means the Cottagers are competitive in virtually every game, a trait that has manifested itself in six draws in their past eight, and they rank second for points won against top-half sides.

Fulham, ninth in the Premier League standings, are 9-1 to make the top six while a second top-half finish in three seasons can be backed at 17-20.

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Simon GilesRacing Post Reporter

Published on 9 January 2025inFA Cup

Last updated 14:39, 9 January 2025

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