Italy v England predictions: Three Lions to bring it home

Free Euro 2020 football tips, best bets and analysis for Italy v England in the final on Sunday.

Where to watch

BBC1 & ITV, 8pm Sunday

Best bets

England to lift the trophy
2pts 5-6 Hills

H Maguire first goalscorer
0.5pt 33-1 each-waybet365

England have grown in stature since the disappointing 0-0 draw with Scotland and can edge a tight encounter against Italy, who rode their luck against Spain and may taste defeat for the first time since 2018.

Team news

Italy
Left-back Leonardo Spinazzola (Achilles) is out long-term but right-back Alessandro Florenzi could contend for a place after recovering from injury.

England
Phil Foden sat out training on Saturday with a minor knock but should be fit for the final. Gareth Southgate otherwise has a fully-fit squad to choose from.

To read more about the two potential starting line-ups click here

Match preview

English football fans don't need to choose between the head and the heart when it comes to betting on the Euro 2020 final because the Three Lions can roar to victory at a supercharged Wembley.

Gareth Southgate's heroes have the best defensive record at Euro 2020 and their rock-solid rearguard gives them a great chance of beating Italy and ending their major tournament drought stretching back to the 1966 World Cup.

Expectations soared from the moment Germany were beaten 2-0 in the last-16 but the England players have been unfazed and continue to rise to the occasion.

Italy are unbeaten in 33 games and sit seventh on the Fifa rankings, higher than any team England have faced at Euro 2020.

They got the tournament off to a great start with their superb 3-0 success over Turkey and were the most accomplished team in the group stage with Ciro Immobile scoring two goals and left-back Leonardo Spinnazola catching the eye with a pair of swashbucking performances.

However, they needed extra time to overcome Austria in the round of 16 and an improved performance in the 2-1 quarter-final success over Belgium was marred when Spinazzola injured his Achilles.

Spinazzola was missed in the semi-final shootout success against Spain, which was largely dominated by Luis Enrique's side, who won the completed passes count 832-319 and the shot statistics 16-7.

Italy came through thanks to determined defending, good fortune and the cool heads of four penalty-takers but it was not a performance to strike fear into English hearts.

England may not pass the ball at the same pace and with the same precision as the Spanish but they have better attacking players and a considerable set-piece threat from Harry Maguire, who looks a tempting first scorer bet at 33-1.

Italy came through a tougher half of the draw and parallels can be drawn with the 2018 World Cup when England took advantage of a favourable path before falling at the first major hurdle.

The 2-1 loss to Croatia at Russia 2018 was a reality check but England have learned their lessons and, while they started strongly and faded on that night in Moscow, they gained strength during Wednesday's victory over the Danes.

Southgate's side had to come from behind and, by doing so, have proven they can get the job done in different ways.

Italy's biggest setback of the tournament came when Alvaro Morata equalised on Tuesday and they didn't respond particularly well.

Spain dominated the rest of the contest and Italy's attacking substitutes, Domenico Berardi and Andrea Belotti, struggled to influence the game.

England's bench looks stronger and Jack Grealish, Phil Foden and Jordan Henderson enhanced their performance against Denmark which peaked during in the first period of extra-time.

Southgate's reluctance to turn to his bench quicker was arguably a mistake which made the task harder than necessary, but he goes into every game with the capacity to make match-winning substitutions.

Plan A may succeed for Southgate, as it did against Croatia, Czech Republic and Ukraine, but the really big matches often test out the depth of a squad and England's abundance of quality attacking options, headlined by Raheem Sterling and Harry Kane gives them the edge.

England have been close before. There have been so many jokes and sneers during 55 years of hurt but they surely won't ever get a chance as good as this to ensure that football comes home again.

Key stat

England have kept ten clean sheets in their last 12 matches

Inside info

Italy

Penalty taker Jorginho
Free-kick wizard Lorenzo Insigne
Set-piece aerial threat Leonardo Bonucci
Card magnet Marco Verratti

England

Penalty taker Harry Kane
Free-kick wizardMason Mount
Set-piece aerial threatHarry Maguire
Card magnetKalvin Phillips

Lowdown

Venue Wembley Stadium, London
Fans allowed 60,000
Time Zone BST
Weather Overcast, max 18C
FIFA rankings Italy (7), England (4)
Head to Head Friendly, March 2018 – England 1 Italy 1; Friendly, March 2015 – Italy 1 England 1; World Cup, June 2014 – England 1 Italy 2; Friendly, August 2012 – England 2 Italy 1; European Championships, June 2012 – England 0 Italy 0.

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