Denmark v Finland predictions: Denmark a cut above Nordic rivals

Free Euro 2020 football tips, best bets and analysis for Denmark v Finland in Group B on Saturday.

Where to watch

BBC, 5pm

Best bet

Denmark & over 1.5 goals
2pt 5-6 general

The Danes have scored 31 goals in their last 11 internationals – that winning mentality and scoring prowess means a win/goals combo looks the bet.

Team news

Denmark
Kasper Hjulmand has a decision to make up front with Jonas Wind set to pip Kasper Dolberg.

Finland
Teemu Pukki has recovered from an ankle injury. Chievo defender Sauli Vaisanen is a doubt.

Match preview

Get more bang for your buck, or clobber for your krone, by backing Denmark to claim Nordic bragging rights in a game of goals against Finland.

The Danes are rightly a short price to open their Group B campaign with a three-point haul against debutants Finland, and the signs point to them doing it with something to spare.

The Parken Stadium in Copenhagen will be rocking with around 12,000 fans packed into the smallest venue on the Euro 2020 roster.

And these fans have been spoiled watching the Danes recently. Kasper Hjulmand's men are not only in rich form, but also banging in the goals. Backing the hosts in 90 minutes is hard to dispute, and backing them to win and over 1.5 goals at 5-6 is a chance worth taking for a bigger reward.

Indeed, the last eight of Denmark's internationals have produced two goals or more and there is definitely a lot more sparkle about them since Hjulmand replaced Age Hareide last year.

An 8-0 win over Moldova is clearly the eye-catcher among their recent results and while that was impressive, the Moldovans are nothing special. However, either side of that World Cup qualifier in March were a 2-0 win in Israel and 4-0 win in Austria to give them a perfect nine-from-nine start on the road to Qatar.

It's fascinating that none of their front men playing in Europe's elite leagues – Andreas Cornelius, Andreas Olsen, Kasper Dolberg or Youssuf Poulsen – have had prolific domestic seasons, but they seem to come to life in the red-and-white of the national team.

The other great thing about Denmark, of course, is Christian Eriksen, not only as a supply line for whichever of those frontmen Hjulmand opts for, but also in finding the net himself.

The ex-Spurs man and Serie A champion with Inter is on penalties and free-kicks and is first-scorer favourite, despite playing either on the right of a midfield three or in the No.10 role.

The Euro 92 winners are certainly looking good – their two warm-up games yielded a 1-1 draw against Germany and a 2-0 win over Bosnia – while their only competitive defeats in the last five years came at the hands of mighty Belgium. And Finland are not Belgium.

In fact, forget Belgium, Finland would be Bolton if they didn't have Teemu Pukki to lead the line so no sight was greater for Finnish fans than seeing the Norwich predator come off the treatment table and return to action in their final warm-up game against Estonia.

That they lost the game 1-0 won't dishearten the Finns who know a fit Pukki is their only hope. Punters, however, shouldn't overlook the fact that Markku Kanerva's men mustered just one effort on target against the Estonians.

And that's the problem. With Pukki they look held; without him they look seriously limited.

Expect a massive defensive effort from the visitors, but don't expect it to win them any points.

Key stat

Denmark have kept clean sheets in nine of their last 12 matches

Inside info

Denmark

Penalty taker Christian Eriksen
Free-kick wizard Christian Eriksen
Set-piece aerial threat Simon Kjaer
Card magnet Pierre-Emile Hojberg

Finland

Penalty taker Teemu Pukki
Free-kick wizardJere Uronen
Set-piece aerial threatPaulus Arajuuri
Card magnetTim Sparv

Lowdown

Venue Parken Stadium, Copenhagen
Fans allowed 12,000
Time Zone BST +1 hour
Weather Cloudy, 18 degrees
FIFA rankings Denmark (10), Finland (54)

Bet builder

Over 1.5 Denmark cards
Don't be fooled by the Danes' good-boy stats – this is a derby and Hojbjerg and Delaney, who picked up 13 yellows between them last season, can put the boot in

Over 1.5 Denmark goals
With 31 goals in their last 11 matches, the Danes know how to find the way to goal

Over 8.5 match corners
In qualifying Denmark averaged 6.3 corners per game, Finland 4.4 so they can clear this mark between them

The treble pays 11-2 with bet365

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