Poland vs Netherlands prediction, betting tips and odds + get £40 in free bets with Sky Bet

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Where to watch Poland vs Netherlands

You can watch Poland vs Netherlands in Group D at Euro 2024 at 2pm on Sunday, June 16, live on BBC One

Match prediction & best bets

Netherlands to win 2-0
1pt 6-1 bet365, Betfair

Netherlands to win 3-0
1pt 10-1 general

A powerful Dutch defence should lay the foundation for a comfortable opening victory over Poland, who are missing star striker Robert Lewandowski due to a thigh injury.

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Poland vs Netherlands odds

Poland 11-2
Netherlands 11-20
Draw 16-5

Odds correct at time of publishing

Poland vs Netherlands predictions

Ronald Koeman played in the dazzling Dutch team who were crowned European champions in Munich in 1988 but Koeman returns to Germany as coach of a more pragmatic side.

Defensive solidity, rather than Total Football, is the hallmark of the 2024 Oranje, who arrive at the Euros on a run of six victories to nil in seven games.

England manager Gareth Southgate, for one, might cast an envious glance over a Dutch defensive roster including Liverpool's Virgil van Dijk, Manchester City's Nathan Ake and impressive Tottenham centre-back Micky van de Ven as well as Inter's Stefan de Vrij and Bayern Munich's Matthijs de Ligt.

Admittedly, the Netherlands' recent shutouts have not come against top-class opposition. They beat Greece 1-0, Ireland 1-0 and Gibraltar 6-0 in their last three qualifying matches before racking up 4-0 friendly wins over Scotland, Canada and Iceland.

But Poland, their opening opponents in Group D, are hardly the most fearsome attacking force in world football, especially with star striker Robert Lewandowski ruled out due to a thigh injury.

Lewandowski's fellow forward Karol Swiderski also picked up an injury during Monday's 2-1 friendly win over Turkey and the Poles had already lost Juventus striker Arkadiusz Milik to a knee problem.

In Lewandowski's absence, it could pay to split correct-score stakes between 2-0 and 3-0 wins for the Netherlands.

Poland scored only ten goals in eight qualifying matches, limping to a third-place finish in a desperately weak section featuring Albania, the Czech Republic, Moldova and the Faroe Islands.

Their Nations League results earned them a playoff place and the floodgates opened in a 5-1 semi-final win over Estonia, who were reduced to ten men inside half an hour.

However, the final against Wales was a dour affair. Poland failed to register a shot on target in 120 minutes before winning on penalties and their depleted strikeforce should be kept quiet by the Dutch defence.

The Netherlands have issues further up the field after the late withdrawals of injured midfielders Frenkie de Jong and Teun Koopmeiners.

Star forward Memphis Depay had a patchy season for Atletico Madrid although Xavi Simons, Cody Gakpo, Donyell Malen and Bologna's Joshua Zirkzee – called up to replace Koopmeiners – add some verve to the attack.

Flying wing-backs Denzel Dumfries and Jeremie Frimpong also pose a threat to the Poles and, while the Netherlands struggle against the elite teams, they are a cut above most opponents.

They lost on penalties to champions Argentina in the 2022 World Cup quarter-finals and their only 90-minute defeats in 34 internationals since Euro 2020 came against France (twice), Italy and Germany.

The Dutch won all three group games at the last Euros, two of them to nil, and they should be backed to make a strong start to their 2024 campaign.

Key stat

The Netherlands have won six of their last seven matches to nil.

Poland vs Netherlands team news

Poland
Robert Lewandowski (thigh) has been ruled out and centre-back Pawel Dawidowicz and forward Karol Swiderski will be assessed after suffering knocks in Monday's friendly against Turkey. Striker Arkadiusz Milik misses the tournament due to a knee injury.

Netherlands
Midfielders Frenkie de Jong and Teun Koopmeiners pulled out of the squad with injuries this week. Ian Maatsen and Joshua Zirkzee are their replacements and coach Ronald Koeman employed a back four in the warm-up wins over Canada and Iceland. Brian Brobbey will miss out with a hamstring injury.

Probable teams

Poland (3-4-2-1): Szczesny; Bednarek, Dawidowicz, Kiwior; Frankowski, Moder, Slisz, Zalewski; Zielinski, Urbanski; Piatek

Netherlands (4-3-3): Verbruggen; Dumfries, De Vrij, Van Dijk, Ake; Reijnders, Schouten, Veerman; Simons, Depay, Gakpo

Inside info

Poland

Star man Piotr Zielinski
Top scorer Piotr Zielinski
Penalty taker Krzysztof Piatek
Card magnet Bartosz Slisz
Assist ace Piotr Zielinski
Set-piece aerial threat Jan Bednarek

Netherlands

Star man Virgil van Dijk
Top scorer Memphis Depay
Penalty taker Cody Gakpo
Card magnet Xavi Simons
Assist ace Denzel Dumfries
Set-piece aerial threat Virgil van Dijk

Match info

Fifa rankings
Poland 28, Netherlands 7

Venue
Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

Weather
Cloudy but rain should have cleared by kick-off, 17C

Poland vs Netherlands bet builder predictions

Under 3.5 goals
Six of Poland's last seven competitive fixtures had under 2.5 goals while the Dutch have kept six clean sheets in seven games

Second half to be higher-scoring half
The Netherlands scored 13 second-half goals in their last five matches and have some dangerous attacking players on the bench

Xavi Simons to be shown a card
The Dutch winger is a livewire but he is prone to recklessness, picking up nine yellow cards and a red in 32 Bundesliga starts for RB Leipzig

Pays out at 12-1 with Hills

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