Expert Euro 2024 analysis from Lars Sivertsen: Denmark are unlikely to cause England too many issues in Frankfurt

Guardian Football Weekly regular and author of Haaland: The Biography Lars Sivertsen believes Denmark may struggle this summer, read on to find out why and to grab yourself £60 in free bets with BetMGM when you bet on Euro 2024. You can grab your free bets here.

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How will Denmark do against England?

I saw one comment in the Danish media this week that this Denmark side is among the ten best in the tournament but just isn't performing.

To be honest it's the "isn't performing" part of that quote which would have any Danish fan concerned going into their second group game against England.

The bottom line is that the 1-1 draw against Slovenia in Denmark's opener was merely the continuation of a disappointing theme.

The national team hasn't actually played well since September 2022. There was the total disaster in Qatar and even in winning their qualifying group they managed to lose in Northern Ireland and Kazakhstan while only beating San Marino 2-1 with a late goal.

That's getting on for two years without ever truly convincing and reading the Danish media after the Slovenia game there seems to be a state of panic stations and crisis talk.

Coach Kasper Hjulmand has been roundly criticised for not reacting quicker in the second half against Slovenia when the team appeared to freeze, completely losing its sense of urgency after a good first period.

Denmark fans may not have much to cheer in FrankfurtCredit: Image Photo Agency

They were fine, in control, not creating a ton of chances but playing nicely, and then the energy levels dropped inexplicably.

That, of course, might sound like a familiar story to England fans, the idea of starting well against Croatia in 2018, Italy at Wembley and France in Qatar and then fading, and arguably it happened to them against Serbia as well on Sunday.

But you look around who Hjulmand has available to him and you wonder what he can possibly do differently against England.

There is no obvious thought of a shift away from the three at the back, but whether it's three or four you would think the lack of pace in Denmark's defence could be the key to how this match pans out.

Denmark are not short of combative, hard-working midfielders, most of whom seem to play for Brentford! Jude Bellingham will know he has been in a game against Pierre Hojbjerg and they definitely represent a more disciplined and organised challenge to England than Serbia, who had more match-winners but far less structure. With Denmark it's the other way round and that's why I'd be surprised if England run away with it.

But where the match may well be decided is the lack of pace at the back for Denmark.

Jannik Vestergaard, Southampton and Leicester fans won't need reminding, has all the pace of a tectonic plate and watching Benjamin Sesko – who is slick, admittedly – ghost past him too often leaves you wondering what Bukayo Saka will be able to achieve.

There might be a case for drafting in Simon Kjaer but that won't alter anything in terms of pace.

And the wing-back system, which Hjulmand will presumably stick with, does leave space to the outside of the back three which England can exploit.

At the other end, Rasmus Hojlund has scored in only one of his last nine internationals and this is a team looking almost entirely at Christian Eriksen for its creativity. And he's one of those players who quite understandably will fade as games wear on.

Mikel Damsgaard was the future once upon a time but his career has stagnated so if Denmark are looking for a spark, it will come from Eriksen and no one else.

So England should win this, though I'm not expecting it to be a thrilling game. Denmark are too well organised to be taken apart so it may be another 1-0 win for Southgate's side.

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Who caught your eye in the first round of games?

It's been a long time since I said this, but this genuinely looks like an exciting Spain team.

For years Spain were too ponderous in possession, knocked the ball around in midfield and at the back with no great purpose.

The way they went out of the last two World Cups was painful to watch.

But on the evidence of the 3-0 win against Croatia they are now prepared to be far more direct and hit the wingers early, and my guess is they won't waver from that approach against Italy in their second match.

For the first time in years they had less possession than their opponents, and they did cough up a fair few chances. But taking more risks with their passing in a bid to get Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams involved was a real breath of fresh air, and of course it came off.

Certainly on the evidence of the first two Group B games, if I was an England fan I think I'd far rather play Italy than Spain in the later stages.

You would think Spain will have the measure of Italy, but my instinct is that the Italians will ramp it up a notch from what they produced in their 2-1 win against Albania.

They surprised me by not going 3-4-3, or 3-4-2-1, against Albania and playing four at the back. I'd be more surprised if they didn't change it back this time.

Luciano Spalletti is a very clever tactician, a coach's coach, and he knows that with so many Inter players in his group, playing the Inter way - as he had been doing - makes so much sense.

I'm inclined to think Spain will win but have enough respect for Spalletti to appreciate that it may well be very close.

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Lars Sivertsen

Published on 19 June 2024inEuro 2024

Last updated 13:19, 19 June 2024

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