Euro 2024 final: Spain vs England prediction, betting tips and odds

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Where to watch Spain vs England

You can watch Spain vs England in the Euro 2024 final at 8pm on Sunday July 14th, live on BBC One and ITV1.

Match prediction & best bet

England to lift the trophy
1pt 5-4 Betfair, Paddy Power

England came under fire for their early performances at Euro 2024 but they have improved to see off Switzerland in the quarter-finals and the Netherlands in the last four. And the Three Lions can take the final step in Berlin against Spain, who have played the best football of the tournament but have looked vulnerable at the back.

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Spain vs England odds

Spain 6-4
England 12-5
Draw 15-8

Odds correct at time of publishing

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Spain vs England predictions

The chips were down for England in the early stages of Euro 2024 as they struggled to live up to their status as tournament favourites.

But Gareth Southgate's Three Lions have raised their game in the knockout rounds and they can upset the odds in Sunday's final against well-fancied Spain to end their 58-year wait for a major title.

England played nothing like potential champions in any of their group matches and were on the brink of round-of-16 elimination when trailing 1-0 to unheralded Slovakia with 90 minutes gone.

Southgate looked bereft of ideas and must have been bracing himself for the fallout from an ignominious exit at the final whistle before his fortunes suddenly changed with one acrobatic swing of Jude Bellingham's right boot.

England's great escape against the Slovaks was completed by Harry Kane's headed winner in extra-time, but the moment they became genuine contenders arrived six days later when they fielded a back three against Switzerland in Dusseldorf.

The Three Lions were far from faultless against the Swiss and they needed a superb Bukayo Saka strike and five nerveless penalties to get them over the line.

But there was a noticeable improvement in performance and the trend continued on Wednesday when they were deserved semi-final victors over the Netherlands.

England were the beneficiaries of a dubious penalty award against the Dutch when they trailed 1-0 to a fine strike from Xavi Simons, but they played well enough to justify their victory – even if it did come via the latest winning goal outside of extra-time in a semi-final at the Euros – and Southgate will be hoping that further improvement can give his side a realistic chance of continental glory.

Facing Spain will undoubtedly be England's toughest test.

La Roja were not attracting much attention before the start of the tournament but they soon caught the eye with a clinical 3-0 triumph over Croatia in their opening match.

Five days later they were even more impressive when cruising to a 1-0 victory over defending champions Italy, before Luis de la Fuente's second string were put through their paces in a single-goal success over Albania.

Spain's dubious reward for being the only team to amass maximum points was a place in the ultra-competitive top half of the draw, but they have risen to the challenge and passed a couple of heavyweight tests against Euros hosts Germany and serial major tournament winners France to reach the final.

And having dismissed two of the competition's most fancied teams, Spain have rightfully deposed England as title favourites.

There has been so much to like about De la Fuente's side, who are the tournament's top scorers with 13 goals and have undoubtedly played the most attractive football.

They are an exceptional, harmonious unit but can also draw on outstanding individual talent when required.

Lamine Yamal's semi-final stunner against France will be remembered for years to come and the superstar teenager's pace and quality will pose a huge threat to either Luke Shaw or Kieran Trippier, depending on who gets the nod on the left of England's defence.

Spain carry a similarly dynamic threat down the left, where Nico Williams will be eager to build on some eyecatching performances, while Dani Olmo is the tournament's in-form number ten, contributing a tournament-high five goal involvements (three goals and two assists) despite starting only two matches.

Centre-forward and captain Alvaro Morata is the least heralded of the La Roja frontline yet he is fourth on Spain's all-time leading scorers list with 36 goals in 79 internationals.

England are sure to be heavily focused on limiting the supply to Spain's front four and that will require them to get to grips with the midfield exchanges and starve Rodri and Fabian Ruiz of time and space to dictate the game.

However, the midfield area has gone from being a major problem area to a strong suit for England thanks to the rapid development of Kobbie Mainoo.

England's dominant first-half display against the Netherlands was heavily influenced by Mainoo, who was slick and sensible in possession and robust and determined in 50-50 challenges.

Mainoo's partnership with Declan Rice has blossomed in a very short space of time and it can provide the platform to allow England's attacking players the opportunity to produce a decisive moment.

In the biggest games it helps to have confident personalities, and Bellingham and Phil Foden are exactly that.

They contributed massively to their clubs' successes in the 2023-24 season and, thanks to Southgate's change of formation, they are starting to look much more at home on the international stage.

A match-winning moment from Foden or Bellingham is entirely plausible and, if neither is able deliver, Ollie Watkins' memorable late winner against the Dutch highlighted that England possess an array of strong back-up option among their substitutes, many of whom are expert penalty takers should it go the distance in Berlin.

England might have to endure another long night, as was the case against Italy three summers ago, but they seem to be embracing the challenge and, unlike at Wembley against the Azzurri, the fine margins could fall in their favour.

Key stat

England are unbeaten in their last 14 competitive games.

Spain vs England team news

Spain
Jesus Navas has joined Pedri and Ayoze Perez on the sidelines but regular right-back Dani Carvajal is able to return after completing a one-match ban to replace the veteran. Centre-back Robin Le Normand should also return from suspension, meaning Nacho is set to drop to the bench.

England
England's only selection dilemma concerns the left-back or left wing-back position (depending on Gareth Southgate's choice of formation). Kieran Trippier has started all six games at the finals and is reportedly set to keep his place despite Luke Shaw's return to full fitness.

Probable teams

Spain (4-2-3-1): Simon; Carvajal, Le Normand, Laporte, Cucurella; Rodri, Ruiz; Yamal, Olmo, Williams; Morata.

England (3-4-2-1): Pickford; Walker, Stones, Guehi; Saka, Mainoo, Rice, Trippier; Foden, Bellingham; Kane.

Inside info

Spain

Star man Rodri
Top scorer Alvaro Morata
Penalty taker Rodri
Card magnet Rodri
Assist ace Dani Olmo
Set-piece aerial threat Aymeric Laporte

England

Star man Jude Bellingham
Top scorer Harry Kane
Penalty taker Harry Kane
Card magnet Jude Bellingham
Assist ace Phil Foden
Set-piece aerial threat John Stones

Match info

Fifa rankings
Spain 8, England 5

Venue
Olympiastadion, Berlin

Weather
Clear, 23C

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Published on 13 July 2024inEuro 2024