Croatia vs Italy prediction, betting tips and odds: plus get £40 in free bets with Betfair

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Where to watch Croatia vs Italy

You can watch Croatia vs Italy in Group B at Euro 2024 at 8pm on Monday, June 24, live on BBC One

Match prediction & best bet

Draw at half-time
2pts 6-5 bet365

A draw would take Italy through to the last 16 and they are capable of keeping a misfiring Croatia attack quiet for at least the first 45 minutes in Leipzig.

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Croatia vs Italy odds

Croatia 23-10
Italy 7-5
Draw 12-5

Odds correct at time of publishing

Croatia vs Italy predictions

Group B was billed as the toughest section at Euro 2024 but Spain have strolled through to the last 16, leaving Croatia, Italy and Albania scrapping for second place.

La Roja scored three times in the first half of their 3-0 opening win over Croatia while Euro 2020 champions Italy beat Albania 2-1 despite falling behind only 23 seconds into their title defence.

The Azzurri were outclassed on matchday two in a 1-0 defeat to Spain, who had nine shots on target to Italy's one and hit the woodwork twice.

However, Croatia's hopes of another deep run at a major tournament were dented by a 2-2 draw with Albania, who equalised in the 95th minute, and Zlatko Dalic's men must beat Italy on matchday three to avoid an early exit.

For all their World Cup heroics, reaching the final in 2018 and finishing third in 2022, Croatia have struggled to win matches in 90 minutes.

Four of their first five games at the 2022 World Cup finished as draws in normal time – three of them goalless – and their only win in four matches at Euro 2020 was a 3-1 victory over Scotland.

Croatia rarely blast out of the blocks and they trailed for more than an hour against Albania before scoring in the 74th and 76th minutes so the half-time draw looks a solid bet against an Italy side who need a point to progress.

Luciano Spalletti's Napoli team won Serie A in dazzling style in 2022-23 but his Italy side look far more limited in attack.

It is telling that goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma was named player of the tournament after their Euro 2020 triumph and he produced a string of saves to keep the scoreline respectable against Spain last time out.

The Azzurri were uninspiring in qualifying, losing at home and away to England and finishing level on points with Ukraine, and their first two performances at the finals have done little to raise expectations.

However, they should be able to frustrate a Croatia side who have failed to score a first-half goal in seven of their nine matches at the 2022 World Cup and Euro 2024.

The two games in which they did score before the break were against group rivals Canada, who had taken a second-minute lead, and the third-place playoff against an exhausted Morocco side.

Croatia's tournament pedigree means they will fancy their chances of pinching a win against Italy. They had 15 shots on target in their first two games, both of which they have had to chase, and VAR denied Bruno Petkovic a goal against Spain after his late penalty was saved by Unai Simon.

However, Italy are in their comfort zone playing for a draw and they should stand firm at least until the break in Leipzig.

Key stat

Croatia have failed to score a first-half goal in seven of their last nine matches at major tournaments

Croatia vs Italy team news

Croatia
Youngster Luka Sucic could come into midfield in place of Marcelo Brozovic. Nikola Vlasic has been ruled out of the tournament but Croatia have no fresh injury concerns so veteran Ivan Perisic should continue at left-back.

Italy
Federico Dimarco has been ruled out so Riccardo Calafiori could move to left-back while Matteo Darmian is likely to replace Giovanni Di Lorenzo at right-back. Mateo Retegui may get a chance up front, replacing Gianluca Scamacca.

Probable teams

Croatia (4-3-3): Livakovic; Stanisic, Sutalo, Erlic, Gvardiol; Modric, Sucic, Kovacic; Mario Pasalic, Budimir, Kramaric

Italy (4-2-3-1): Donnarumma; Darmian, Bastoni, Mancini, Calafiori; Jorginho, Barella; Chiesa, Pellegrini, Zaccagni; Retegui 

Inside info

Croatia

Star man Luka Modric
Top scorer Andrej Kramaric
Penalty taker Luka Modric
Card magnet Mateo Kovacic
Assist ace Luka Modric
Set-piece aerial threat Josko Gvardiol 

Italy

Star man Federico Chiesa
Top scorer Federico Chiesa
Penalty taker Jorginho
Card magnet Gianluca Mancini
Assist ace Federico Chiesa
Set-piece aerial threat Alessandro Bastoni 

Match info

Fifa rankings 
Croatia 9, Italy 10

Venue 
Red Bull Arena, Leipzig

Weather 
Cloudy but dry, 20C

Croatia vs Italy bet builder predictions

More goals in second half
A draw will do nicely for Italy and they can frustrate Croatia, whose goals against Albania came in the 74th and 76th minutes

Mateo Kovacic over 1.5 shots
The Croatian midfielder is not a regular goalscorer but he has racked up six shots, three of them on target, in their first two group games

Federico Chiesa over 1.5 shots
Italy's winger had three shots against Albania, one against Spain and scored nine times in 25 Serie A starts for Juventus this season

Pays out at 6-1 with bet365

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