Leeds vs Southampton prediction, betting odds and tips: Whites have Premier League in their sights

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Best bet

Leeds
1pt 27-20 bet365

Leeds vs Southampton odds

Leeds 27-20
Southampton 11-5
Draw 12-5

Odds correct at time of publishing

Leeds vs Southampton team news

Leeds
Patrick Bamford won't be fit to feature at Wembley and Pascal Struijk remains sidelined but full-back Sam Byram is back in training.

Southampton
Strikers Che Adams and Ross Stewart are both back and available for selection but Stuart Armstrong, Gavin Bazunu and Juan Larios miss out.

Leeds vs Southampton predictions

Leeds have failed to seal promotion via the EFL playoffs in five previous attempts but the Whites can make it sixth time lucky and return to the Premier League with a Wembley win over Southampton.

In nine of the 19 seasons since the 2004-05 campaign, the team who have finished third in the Championship have secured promotion to the Premier League and Leeds are taken to bolster that trend.

In a normal season, these teams would have been good enough for automatic promotion. Leeds looked title contenders before a late blip while Southampton’s unbeaten run lasted 25 games but was not enough for them to break into the top two.

Daniel Farke’s side finished on 90 points, three clear of fourth-placed Southampton, and winning only two of their final eight regular-season matches could have easily seen them lose their way.

But a dominant semi-final second leg against Norwich, who were unable to land a glove in a 4-0 hiding at Elland Road, has quashed those concerns and shown Leeds to be comfortably one of the best attacking sides in the division.

Forward gems Joel Piroe, Crysencio Summerville and Georginio Rutter were all on the scoresheet against the Canaries and that should have given them the necessary lift to express themselves on this big stage.

Throw in Wilfried Gnonto and likely substitutes Daniel James, Jaidon Anthony and Mateo Joseph and Leeds have a wealth of attacking talent with more potential match-winners than their opponents.

Leeds lost both regular-season meetings with Southampton and will want to avenge a 2-1 loss at Elland Road on the final day of the Championship campaign.

While that is an obvious concern, it’s a small sample and Southampton can often get themselves in unnecessary trouble with their possession-based approach.

If Leeds press with aggression they can force mistakes out of this Saints side and if it turns into a straight shootout they should also have the necessary firepower.

After a goalless draw in the opening leg of their semi-final at West Brom, Southampton turned on the style at St Mary's, winning 3-1.

However, they had only seven shots on target in those two legs against the Baggies and will find it tougher to breach a Leeds side who kept two clean sheets against Norwich, restricting them to a total of only two shots on target.

Ethan Ampadu and Tottenham loanee Joe Rodon have formed an excellent centre-back partnership and they get strong protection from holding midfielders Ilia Gruev and Glen Kamara.

Keeping 23-goal forward Adam Armstrong quiet will be key and he has the benefit of having striking partner Che Adams back from injury.

But Leeds possess greater star quality and a deeper squad and they can win the battle to make an immediate Premier League return.

Key stat

Seven of Leeds's last ten Championship matches have had three or more goals.

Probable teams

Leeds (4-2-3-1): Meslier; Gray, Rodon, Ampadu, Firpo; Gruev, Kamara; Gnonto, Rutter, Summerville; Piroe.
Subs: Anthony, James, Joseph, Byram, Cooper, Roberts, Gelhardt, Shackleton.

Southampton (4-3-3): McCarthy; Walker-Peters, Harwood-Bellis, Bednarek, Stephens; Downes, Aribo, Smallbone; Brooks, Adams, A Armstrong.
Subs: Fraser, Charles, Edozie, Manning, Mara, Stewart, Sulemana, Rothwell.

Inside info

Leeds

Star man Crysencio Summerville
Top scorer Crysencio Summerville
Penalty taker Crysencio Summerville
Card magnet Ethan Ampadu
Assist ace Georginio Rutter
Set-piece aerial threat Joe Rodon

Southampton

Star man Adam Armstrong
Top scorer Adam Armstrong
Penalty taker Adam Armstrong
Card magnet Flynn Downes
Assist ace David Brooks
Set-piece aerial threat Jan Bednarek

Leeds vs Southampton bet builder predictions

Over 2.5 goals
Seven of Leeds's last ten league games have gone over 2.5 goals and with so much attacking talent on show this clash should follow suit.

Jack Stephens to be shown a card
The Saints defender has picked up seven bookings in 29 appearances this season and he may be in for a tough time up against tricky winger Wilfried Gnonto.

Crysencio Summerville to score or assist
The dynamic Dutchman is key to everything Leeds do and, with 21 goals and ten assists this season, he could be set for starring role.

Pays out at 17-2 with bet365

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