Tuesday's Champions League predictions: Real Madrid loanee can punish Atletico

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Tuesday's group matches in the Uefa Champions League.

Milan v Atletico Madrid

Where to watch

BT Sport ESPN, 8pm Tuesday

Best bet

Brahim Diaz to score first
1pt each-way 10-1 bet365

Preview

Atletico Madrid scored only seven goals in eight Champions League matches last season and kicked off their 2021-22 campaign with a goalless draw at home to Porto so they are easy to swerve on their trip to Milan.

The Rossoneri played their part in an entertaining 3-2 defeat at Liverpool on matchday one and have won their three home Serie A fixtures this season by an aggregate score of 8-1.

Given that Atleti have conceded the first goal in four of their last five La Liga matches, the exception being a 0-0 draw with Athletic Bilbao, it makes sense to focus on home players in the first-scorer market.

Real Madrid loanee Brahim Diaz will be particularly keen to make his mark against Atletico and the 22-year-old looks a decent each-way option. He has scored three times in six Serie A appearances, twice opening the scoring, and also notched in the defeat at Anfield.

Key stats

• Atletico Madrid have not scored the first goal in any of their last six games in all competitions
• Three of Milan's last four home wins have been by a 2-0 scoreline
• Only two of Atletico's last 28 matches have featured over 3.5 goals

Borussia Dortmund v Sporting

Where to watch

BT Sport Extra 3, 8pm Tuesday

Best bet

Draw-Borussia Dortmund double result
1pt 10-3 Betfred

Preview

Sporting experienced a chastening return to the Champions League group stage, losing 5-1 at home to Ajax on matchday one in their first game at that level for four years.

The Portuguese champions were 2-0 down inside nine minutes against their Dutch counterparts and they will be desperate to avoid a repeat of that start when they face a dangerous Borussia Dortmund side.

Sporting recovered from the Ajax rout with a pair of 1-0 wins over Estoril and Maritimo and they have conceded only 23 goals in 41 Primeira Liga matches since the start of last season.

They are capable of defending well and should be expected to adopt a cautious approach in Dortmund. BVB have the talent to follow up their opening win at Besiktas but they may not be at their most ruthless, having played with ten men for 50 minutes of their 1-0 weekend defeat to Borussia Monchengladbach.

Key stats

• Both teams have scored in all five of Dortmund's Bundesliga and Champions League wins this season
• Eight of BVB's last nine Champions League matches have produced over 2.5 goals
• Sporting have scored only three goals from open play in their last five games

RB Leipzig v Club Brugge

Where to watch

BT Sport Extra 4, 8pm Tuesday

Best bet

Club Brugge or draw double chance
2pts 17-10 Betfair, Paddy Power

Preview

Group A outsiders Club Brugge claimed an unexpected point thanks to a 1-1 draw with 1-4 hotpots Paris St-Germain on matchday one and they can build on that result against inconsistent RB Leipzig.

The Belgian champions were good value for their draw with PSG, having 16 shots to the visitors' nine and winning the corners battle 6-2, and their defenders should take heart from the way they handled Lionel Messi, Neymar and Kylian Mbappe.

Club Brugge will have more defending to do against Leipzig, who crushed Hertha Berlin 6-0 in the Bundesliga at the weekend.

Before that win, though, new coach Jesse Marsch had overseen a patchy start to the season including 6-3 and 4-1 defeats to Manchester City in the Champions League and Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga.

More worryingly, Leipzig took just one point from league fixtures against Mainz, Wolfsburg and Cologne so they look uneasy favourites on matchday two.

Key stats

• Leipzig's last four matches have produced a total of 22 goals
• Club Brugge have kept four clean sheets in their last six away league fixtures
• Leipzig have conceded 25 goals in their last ten Champions League games

Real Madrid v Sheriff Tiraspol

Where to watch

BT Sport Extra 2, 8pm Tuesday

Best bet

Real Madrid to win & both teams to score
1pt 21-10 bet365

Preview

Moldovan champions Sheriff Tiraspol enjoyed a glorious Champions League group-stage debut as Adama Traore's 16th-minute volley helped them to a 2-0 home win over Shakhtar Donetsk.

Bookmakers expect the new boys to be brought down to earth at the Bernabeu on matchday two although Sheriff could get on the scoresheet in the Spanish capital.

Real Madrid left it late to pinch a 1-0 win at Inter in their opening Group D game but their first seven La Liga matches in Carlo Ancelotti's second spell have included 4-1, 5-2 and 6-1 wins as well as a 3-3 draw at Levante.

They should win in style but they have struggled for clean sheets in home Champions League group games in recent seasons. They beat Viktoria Plzen 2-1 and lost 3-0 to CSKA Moscow in 2018-19, drew 2-2 with Club Brugge a season later, and were beaten 3-2 and 2-0 by Shakhtar in last term's group stage.

Key stats

• Real Madrid have scored 22 goals in eight games this season
• Both teams have found the net in eight of Real's last ten home Champions League matches
• Sheriff have conceded only twice in nine Champions League qualifying and group games this term

Ajax v Besiktas

Where to watch

BT Sport ESPN, 5.45pm Tuesday

Best bet

Ajax to win & over 3.5 goals
3pts 6-5 Betfair

Preview

Ajax cruised to a 5-1 win at Sporting in their opening game in Group C and their supporters will be anticipating a similar scoreline against injury-hit Besiktas at the Johan Cruyff Arena.

The Dutch champions racked up 102 goals in 34 Eredivisie matches last season and have already struck 30 times in seven league games this term, including a 9-0 demolition of Cambuur when eight different players found the net.

Besiktas, who have conceded nine goals in their last four matches in all competitions, are likely to be missing Umut Meras, Ajdin Hasic, Mehmet Topal, Georges-Kevin N'Koudou, Necip Uysal, Domagoj Vida, Michy Batshuayi and Alex Teixeira while Barcelona loanee Miralem Pjanic is a major doubt.

They were 2-0 down at half-time against Borussia Dortmund in Istanbul on matchday one and in-form Ajax tend to blast out of the blocks so backing a high-scoring victory for the hosts looks a solid bet.

Key stats

• Ajax have scored 35 goals in eight Eredivisie and Champions League matches this season
• Both teams have scored in 13 of Besiktas's last 16 Champions League games
• Ajax have been leading at half-time in all seven of their victories this term

Shakhtar Donetsk v Inter

Where to watch

BT Sport 1, 5.45pm Tuesday

Best bet

Shakhtar Donetsk
1pt 5-1 Betfair, Betfred

Preview

Shakhtar Donetsk and Inter shared two goalless draws in last season's Champions League group stage and both clubs have made losing starts this term.

Shakhtar lost 2-0 away to Moldovan rookies Sheriff Tiraspol although they had 20 attempts on goal and have responded to that defeat with three good wins in Ukrainian domestic competitions.

Inter were left to rue missed chances as they conceded a late goal to lose 1-0 against Real Madrid in Milan and they are worth opposing on their trip to Ukraine.

The Italian champions have taken 14 points from a possible 18 under new boss Simone Inzaghi but they are without a clean sheet since the opening day of the season.

Their recent record in the Champions League is dismal – they finished bottom of their group last season – and Shakhtar, whose attacking unit looks stronger this term, are a big price to claim three points.

Key stats

• Inter have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last six games
• Shakhtar have won their last three domestic matches by an aggregate score of 12-1
• Inter have won only three of their last 17 matches in the Champions League

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