Paris St-Germain v Real Madrid predictions: Heavyweight rivals hard to split

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for the Champions League last-16 first leg between Paris St-Germain and Real Madrid on Tuesday.

Where to watch

BT Sport 3, 8pm Tuesday

Best bet

Draw
1pt 11-4 bet365

Team news

Paris St-Germain
Neymar (ankle) should return to the squad but is not fit enough to start. Sergio Ramos and Ander Herrera are out but Idrissa Gueye is available after returning from the Africa Cup of Nations.

Real Madrid
Ferland Mendy is fit again and top scorer Karim Benzema is expected to recover from a hamstring problem that forced him to miss Real's last two games.

Match preview

Real Madrid officials were outraged by December's bungled draw for the Champions League last 16 as the Uefa re-rack made their path to a 14th European title significantly tougher.

Real had been paired with Benfica before an embarrassing software glitch derailed the draw and second time around they were given a heavyweight tie against Paris St-Germain.

The Parisian giants started the competition jostling for favouritism with Manchester City after a spectacular summer recruitment drive brought Lionel Messi, Gianluigi Donnarumma, Georginio Wijnaldum, Achraf Hakimi and Real legend Sergio Ramos, sidelined for the first leg, to Ligue 1.

Predictably, the expensively-assembled PSG squad has proved a cut above the rest of the French top flight. Having been pipped to the title by Lille last season, Mauricio Pochettino's side are 13 points clear at the top after 24 matches and able to focus on their bid for a first Champions League crown.

Real were understandably miffed about drawing PSG - especially after winning their group ahead of Inter - but it is hardly an ideal tie for the French powerhouses either.

Their Qatari owners certainly won't be taking Carlo Ancelotti's side lightly as one of their first acts after taking over the club in 2011 was to appoint the Italian tactician as coach.

Ancelotti, back at Real for a second spell, has led the Madrid outfit to the top of La Liga, four points clear of second-placed Sevilla and 15 ahead of bitter rivals Barcelona and Atletico Madrid.

The Champions League betting suggests 16-1 shots Real are a notch below Europe's current elite clubs but they have a wealth of top-level experience, especially in midfield where Toni Kroos, Luka Modric and Casemiro are set to line up against PSG.

France striker Karim Benzema, with 17 goals in 21 La Liga appearances and five in six in the Champions League this season, is expected to recover from a hamstring problem to lead the line and a streetwise Real side can make life difficult for PSG in the first leg.

The draw looks a big price given the mutual respect between these teams and the strength of both defences.

Messi is still finding his feet in Paris after the seismic departure from Barca and PSG remain a work in progress, as City demonstrated in two group-stage meetings.

PSG were fortunate to win the home game 2-0, having just six shots at goal to City's 18, and they managed just two attempts on target in a 2-1 defeat in Manchester.

Real are not quite at City's level but their Champions League experience and solid domestic form suggests they are capable of keeping things tight against their star-studded hosts in Paris.

Key stat

Real Madrid won all three of their away group matches to nil.

Inside info

Paris St-Germain

Penalty taker Lionel Messi/Kylian Mbappe
Free-kick wizard Lionel Messi
Set-piece aerial threat Marquinhos
Card magnet Idrissa Gueye

Real Madrid

Penalty taker Karim Benzema
Free-kick wizardToni Kroos
Set-piece aerial threatEder Militao
Card magnetCasemiro

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