Manchester City v Real Madrid predictions: Citizens can grind out first-leg win

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Manchester City v Real Madrid in Tuesday's Champions League semi-final first leg.

Where to watch

BT Sport 2, 8pm Tuesday

Best bet

Manchester City to win & under 3.5 goals
3pts 27-20 Coral

Team news

Manchester City
Joao Cancelo is suspended and fellow defenders Kyle Walker and John Stones are doubts.

Real Madrid
Eder Militao should return to the Real defence after serving a suspension against Chelsea. David Alaba and Casemiro are doubts and forwards Luka Jovic, Eden Hazard and Mariano Diaz have not travelled.

Match preview

French striker Karim Benzema scored a 46-minute hat-trick against Chelsea on Real Madrid's last visit to England but the Spanish giants may not find Manchester City's defence in such a generous mood.

Real, who need just one point from their final five La Liga fixtures to claim the Spanish title, have come through dramatic ties against Paris St-Germain and Chelsea with Benzema playing a starring role.

He scored back-to-back hat-tricks in the last-16 second leg against PSG at the Bernabeu and the quarter-final first leg at Stamford Bridge, where Real beat their lacklustre hosts 3-1.

Chelsea rallied to take a 4-3 aggregate lead in the second leg before late goals from Rodrygo and, in extra-time, the prolific Benzema settled the tie in Real's favour but a 14th European crown still feels a distant prospect for Carlo Ancelotti's men.

They rode their luck during their nervy victories over PSG and Chelsea and are as big as 23-10 to get past last season's runners-up City to set up a final, the betting suggests, against Liverpool.

Premier League clubs also stood in Real's way last season as they knocked out Liverpool in the quarter-finals before a limp semi-final exit at the hands of Chelsea, who went on to beat the Citizens 1-0 in the final.

The men from Madrid failed to score on their visits to Anfield and Stamford Bridge last term and only one of their last ten away matches in Europe has rewarded backers of both teams to score.

Real failed to register a shot on target in their 1-0 last-16 first-leg defeat against PSG this season, in which Lionel Messi had a second-half penalty saved before Kylian Mbappe scored a brilliant winner in injury-time for the Parisians.

Ancelotti may well adopt a similarly cautious approach at the Etihad Stadium, particularly as there are major fitness doubts over experienced defender David Alaba and midfielder Casemiro.

Key defender Eder Militao returns after missing the second leg against Chelsea due to suspension but even his presence may not prevent City from establishing a first-leg lead.

Backing the Citizens to win a game featuring under 3.5 goals looks a good bet. It copped in both legs of City's last-16 victory over Real in 2019-2020, while City have won ten of their 11 Champions League home games in the past two seasons.

The only blot on that record was a 0-0 draw against Sporting in this season's last-16 second leg but Pep Guardiola's side had romped to a 5-0 victory in Portugal.

Their quarter-final against Atletico Madrid was a far more competitive affair as Kevin De Bruyne's first-leg winner at the Etihad was the only goal scored in 180 increasingly ill-tempered minutes.

City's clean sheets at home and away against Atletico suggest they should be capable of keeping Real at bay and exploiting the visitors' defensive issues.

Key stat

Both teams have scored in only one of Real Madrid's last ten Champions League away matches.

Inside info

Manchester City

Penalty taker Kevin De Bruyne/Riyad Mahrez
Free-kick wizard Kevin De Bruyne
Set-piece aerial threat Ruben Dias
Card magnet Rodri

Real Madrid

Penalty taker Karim Benzema
Free-kick wizard Toni Kroos
Set-piece aerial threat Eder Militao
Card magnet Eduardo Camavinga

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