2024-25 Champions League top-eight and top-24 predictions and football betting tips

Best bets

Juventus to finish in the top eight
2pts 5-2 general

Benfica to finish from ninth to 24th
3pts 4-6 bet365, Betfair

2024-25 Champions League predictions

The change of Champions League format has opened up new betting opportunities and there should be fewer dead rubbers for punters to negotiate.

The old four-team groups often petered out on matchdays five and six but every point will be crucial in the league phase.

Only the bottom 12 in the table will be eliminated and sides finishing from ninth to 16th will be seeded for the playoff round.

Finishing in the top eight, and earning a bye to the round of 16, is the ideal outcome but it could be a competitive heat. Simulations run by Football Meets Data suggest a tally of 15 points will be required to make the top eight while nine should be enough to seal a place in the top 24.

Six teams are odds-on to make the top eight and another eight are 100-30 or shorter, including last season's runners-up Borussia Dortmund and domestic champions Paris St-Germain, Bayer Leverkusen and Inter.

The Nerazzurri reached the Champions League final in 2022-23, losing 1-0 to Manchester City, while Atalanta stylishly lifted the Europa League last term and Juventus can fly the flag for Serie A this season.

Manager Thiago Motta masterminded Bologna's shock Champions League qualification and he could haul Juve out of the doldrums.

Motta has solid foundations to build on as the Turin giants finished third in the league and beat Atalanta in May's Coppa Italia final.

Juventus lost only five league games, three of them by a 1-0 scoreline, and they have kicked off the new campaign with four straight clean sheets.

They freshened up their midfield, bringing in Douglas Luiz from Aston Villa, Atalanta playmaker Teun Koopmeiners and Nice's France international Khephren Thuram.

Young wingers Francisco Conceicao and Kenan Yildiz should provide plenty of chances for ace striker Dusan Vlahovic and the draw has been relatively kind to Juve.

They take on Manchester City at home on matchday six but their other seven fixtures are all against teams below them in the top-eight betting, including a trip to Luiz's former club Villa.

Unai Emery's men are 100-30 to make the top eight but they have been shaky in defence since the start of 2024, losing 6-2 on aggregate to Olympiakos in the Conference League semi-finals.

Celtic's draw, including home fixtures against Club Brugge, Young Boys and Slovan Bratislava as well as a trip to Dinamo Zagreb, gives them a decent chance of making the playoff round.

But Benfica, runners-up in Portugal's Primeira Liga last season, look a solid bet to finish between ninth and 24th, having reached the Champions League quarter-finals in 2021-22 and 2022-23.

They lost on penalties to Marseille in the Europa League quarter-finals last term and finished ten points ahead of Porto, who took Arsenal to a last-16 shootout in the Champions League.

Benfica sacked manager Roger Schmidt at the end of August but former Wolves boss Bruno Lage, who led them to the league title in 2018-19, is a capable replacement.

They have won their last 14 home league matches, scoring 45 goals, and Thursday's trip to Red Star Belgrade, followed by home fixtures against Atletico Madrid and Feyenoord, can help them make a strong start.

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