2024-25 Champions League outright winner prediction and football betting tips

Best bets

Bayern Munich to win the Champions League
1pt each-way 12-1 general

Barcelona to win the Champions League
1pt each-way 14-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

2024-25 Champions League predictions

There is a new format to the Champions League for the 2024-25 season but the ante-post betting is dominated by some familiar names.

Manchester City, for so long rated the best club side in Europe, are favourites to lift the trophy for the second time and holders Real Madrid, bolstered by the arrival of France superstar Kylian Mbappe, are targeting a record-extending 16th crown.

Arsenal, runners-up up to City in the past two Premier League seasons, are third-favourites ahead of Bayern Munich, Liverpool and Barcelona – three storied clubs who, between them, have been crowned champions of Europe on 17 occasions.

The stale format of eight four-team groups has been replaced by a league phase in which each of the 36 clubs face eight opponents, four at home and four away.

The draw for those league fixtures has been kinder to some than others. Paris St-Germain, who came through a tough group featuring Borussia Dortmund, Milan and Newcastle last season, face trips to Arsenal and Bayern as well as tough home games against City and Atletico Madrid.

The change of format is unlikely to upset the established order, however, especially as the top eight in the league table receive the significant advantage of a bye to the round of 16.

The next 16 clubs, from ninth place to 24th, go into a playoff round and the extended format may hamper the chances of a surprise package triumphing in May's final at the Allianz Arena in Munich.

Since Jose Mourinho's Porto shocked Europe in 2003-04, only Liverpool, Barca, Milan, Manchester United, Inter, Chelsea, Bayern, Real and City have won the competition.

Real's 2-0 victory over Borussia Dortmund in last season's final at Wembley extended their extraordinary run to six titles in 11 seasons.

They did it the hard way, beating City on penalties in the quarter-finals after a 3-3 draw in Madrid and a 1-1 draw in Manchester, where the Citizens racked up 33 shots in 120 minutes.

And Carlo Ancelotti's Real were on the brink of a semi-final exit against Bayern before substitute Joselu came to their rescue with goals in the 88th and 91st minutes of the second leg at the Bernabeu.

City, with striker Erling Haaland refreshed after his summer break, have made an ominous start to their pursuit of a seventh Premier League title in eight seasons.

Real won La Liga by ten points from Barca last term, conceding only 26 goals in 38 games, and they have assembled a squad of thrilling young talents.

Mbappe and Brazilian teenager Endrick have joined England star Jude Bellingham, Ballon d'Or favourite Vinicius Junior and classy forward Rodrygo in the Spanish capital.

Key midfielder Toni Kroos has retired but goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois and exciting Turkey winger Arda Guler are fit after missing most of last term through injury so Real, along with City, set a high standard.

However, Bayern ran the Madrid giants close in last season's Champions League, having claimed a deserved 3-2 aggregate victory over Arsenal in the quarter-finals.

The Gunners and Liverpool have to be respected given the strength of the Premier League but going deep in the Champions League while attempting to end City's domestic dominance will not be easy for either club.

Bayern, dethroned as Bundesliga champions by Bayer Leverkusen in 2023-24 after a run of 11 straight titles, and Barcelona are tempting alternatives to the big two in the betting.

The teams meet in Catalonia on matchday three but the rest of their league-phase opponents are less daunting. 

Bayern, stung by last season's lack of silverware, can be relied on to make a strong start in the Champions League, having won 28 and drawn two of their 30 group fixtures over the past five seasons.

Manager Vincent Kompany was a surprise appointment after overseeing Burnley's Championship title triumph and subsequent Premier League relegation.

However, the Belgian boss has inherited a terrific squad, strengthened by summer signings Michael Olise and Joao Palhinha.

Harry Kane scored 36 goals in 32 Bundesliga starts last term, as well as eight in 12 in the Champions League, and there is a great blend of youth and experience in the squad.

Joshua Kimmich, Leon Goretzka, Konrad Laimer, Leroy Sane and Serge Gnabry are in their late 20s while brilliant Germany attacker Jamal Musiala, Aleksandar Pavlovic and Mathys Tel are the stars of the younger generation.

Bayern, beaten by Manchester City in the 2022-23 quarter-finals and Real in last season's semis, should pose a threat to the market leaders this term and they won the 2019-20 Champions League under Hansi Flick.

Treble-winning coach Flick had a tough spell in charge of the German national team but should be rejuvenated by his new role at Barcelona, who also represent each-way value in the Champions League.

The draw opened up nicely for Barca last term, as City, Real, Bayern and Arsenal ended in the opposite half of the quarter-final bracket.

Having knocked out Napoli in the round of 16, Barca were leading PSG 4-2 on aggregate early in the quarter-final second leg before centre-back Ronald Araujo was sent off in the 29th minute.

That sparked an impressive PSG comeback, ending departing coach Xavi's hopes of a perfect send-off, but the future looks bright for Barca. 

Spain youngster Lamine Yamal lit up Euro 2024, just as his club teammate Pedri did at the previous European Championship finals, and Dani Olmo, another of La Roja's summer stars, is a cracking signing.

Teenage centre-back Pau Cubarsi made a big impression last season and Flick has been reunited with striker Robert Lewandowski, who scored 15 goals in Bayern's 2019-20 Champions League success.

The renovation of Camp Nou means Barca are still based at the Estadi Olimpic Lluis Companys but they seem to feel at home there, winning their last eight La Liga matches by an aggregate score of 24-3. 

Injury absentees Gavi, Andreas Christensen and Uruguayan defender Araujo should be fit by the time the knockout stages kick off as Flick eyes up a return to Munich for the Champions League final.

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