Champions League top goalscorer: best bets and free tips for the Golden Boot

Champions League top goalscorer bets

Sadio Mane top Champions League goalscorer
20-1 each-way general
Roberto Firmino Champions League top goalscorer
50-1 each-way general

Golden Boot preview

When it comes to picking a Champions League top goalscorer we want someone who can score ten-plus goals, plays in a high-scoring team expected to go far, has a weak group and, given the way VAR was used in last season’s Champions League, is a known penalty taker.

Why ten-plus goals? Only once since Kaka in 2007 has a player other than Cristiano Ronaldo or Lionel Messi been top of the Champions League goalscorer charts.

That was Neymar in 2015, and, even then, he finished only joint-top with Messi and Ronaldo on ten goals. In those 12 seasons, the average total of goals for first place was 12.08 (maximum 13 games), whereas in the eight seasons before the average was 9.38 (and in five of those seasons there was a maximum 17 games).

These stats are another indication of the genius Messi and Ronaldo have brought us and we will miss them when they are gone. It is possible too that they may be gone from this season’s competition sooner than many anticipate.

Barcelona and Juventus are the favourites in their groups, but looking at the other teams in them (Dortmund, Inter, Atletico Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen), I can see a potential early upset and exit for Messi and/or Ronaldo.

Both players are also a year older and will be managed conservatively this season. It's hard to see either playing all six group games and therefore I would avoid backing either at current prices.

A team that will go far and are high-scoring? Liverpool tick both boxes.

The defending champions have played the maximum 13 games in each of the last two seasons and including the playoff games against Hoffenheim in August 2017, have scored 71 goals in their last 28 Champions League games under Jurgen Klopp.

That's an average of 2.53 goals. They did curtail their attacking instincts a little last season, but anyone playing up front for Liverpool this term is going to get a couple of goals at least.

A weak group? Liverpool have a weaker group than you might first think at first look. Both Genk and Salzburg have lost the managers who won them their domestic titles last season.

They have also lost key players from their starting 11 (Salzburg five and Genk three) and replaced them with unproven quality. Genk’s first-choice keeper Danny Vukovic is also out until January.

I can see Liverpool getting a high number of goals in the group - in the last two group stages they recorded two 7-0 wins and a 4-0. Their ties against Napoli can also expect goals given the Italians have opened with two 4-3 games already in Serie A this season.

So that leaves us looking at Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino.

The way VAR was used in last season’s Champions League means that Salah, the regular penalty-taker when James Milner is not playing, catches the eye.

But at the bigger prices I would be leaning towards Mane and Firmino with four each-way places available after all three placed in 2017-18 season.

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