Expert Jury: Brentford look at serious risk of Premier League relegation

We asked our top team of writers and a leading odds-compiler for their thoughts on this week's big talking points and this is how they answered...

What is your best football bet this weekend?

Racing Post's Aaron Ashley: Port Vale at home to Stevenage. This is a must-win game for the Vale if the League Two playoffs are a realistic target for them.

While Vale are unbeaten in seven, a sequence that has seen them draw with the division's top three Forest Green, Tranmere and Northampton, Stevenage remain at risk of relegation. The visitors are winless in five and were thrashed 4-0 hosting Bristol Rovers last weekend.

Racing Post's Joe Casey: Over 2.5 goals in Brentford v Newcastle at odds-against. The Bees have conceded 20 times in their last eight games and eight of their last ten games have seen three or more goals.
These two played out a 3-3 draw earlier in the season and another high-scoring affair looks likely.

Racing Post's James Milton: Over 2.5 goals in Mallorca v Valencia at 5-4. The bet has copped in nine of Los Che's 12 away matches in La Liga and they had more shots than Barcelona in last weekend's 4-1 home defeat while Mallorca beat a miserly Athletic Bilbao side 3-2 in their most recent home match.

Ladbrokes' Chris Pender: Mansfield's rise up the League Two table looks set to continue when they travel to Valley Parade. Bradford will be buoyed by the arrival of Mark Hughes but he is unlikely to have an instant impact against Nigel Clough's in-form Stags.

Who are the most vulnerable favourites?

Racing Post's Aaron Ashley: Staying in the basement, it is difficult to touch Leyton Orient at odds-on - and that includes under new management at home to second-bottom Carlisle, who are scrapping for their lives.

Orient have plummeted down the division following a run of ten games without a win, and they have collected just two points and scored only two goals during that sorry spell. Their last league win came in early December.

Racing Post's Joe Casey: Coventry have won back-to-back games but needed late goals to overcome strugglers Bristol City and Barnsley. Preston are a step up on those two under Ryan Lowe and should really have beat Nottingham Forest in midweek.

The Sky Blues look a touch short.

Racing Post's James Milton: RB Leipzig thumped Hertha Berlin 6-1 last weekend although the score was 1-1 when Hertha had a man sent off in the 62nd minute.

Leipzig had a tough Europa League trip to Real Sociedad on Thursday and look too short to win at Bochum, who beat Bayern Munich 4-2 in their last home game and have lost only twice on their own patch this season.

Ladbrokes' Chris Pender: AFC Wimbledon. It looks a six-pointer at the bottom of League One, and Gary McSheffrey's Doncaster are well equipped to leave London with at least a point.

Where is the value in the EFL Cup final?

Racing Post's Aaron Ashley: At 5-2 I'll opt for an Antonio Rudiger card. Referee Stuart Atwell has shown 62 cards in the 18 games he has taken charge of this season and a cup final at Wembley between two of England's heavyweights should only intensify matters.

Liverpool's frontline are firing so there will be a lot of pressure on German commander Rudiger, who was cautioned in the 1-1 draw at Anfield in August and is Chelsea’s joint-most booked player this season with seven yellows in 36 appearances

Racing Post's Joe Casey: Marcos Alonso to be shown a card at 11-5. The left wing-back is up against Mo Salah and Trent Alexander-Arnold and is the joint-most booked player for Chelsea this season.

Liverpool got plenty of joy down the Blues’ left in their January Premier League meeting and may do so again.

Racing Post's James Milton: I'd keep things simple and back Liverpool to win in 90 minutes. Chelsea have had to grind out wins over weaker opponents in recent weeks while Liverpool thumped Leeds 6-0 on Wednesday.

Both league games this season have been entertaining draws but the Blues are not at their best and Liverpool's attacking quality could prove decisive at Wembley.

Ladbrokes' Chris Pender: If this game is anything like what happened at Stamford Bridge at the beginning of the year, we're in for a classic under the Wembley arch. Sadio Mane to score looks a decent bet as he loves a goal against Chelsea and will be looking to put one past his good friend Edouard Mendy.

Who goes down from Brentford, Leeds, Everton, Newcastle and Burnley?

Racing Post's Aaron Ashley: I fear for Brentford and can see why they may attract relegation support at 3-1. The Bees have played 26 games, more than any relegation rival, and are now only four points clear of the drop after losing eight of their last ten games.

Everton have too many flair players to go down while Leeds have been unlucky with injuries. Newcastle are looking progressive thanks to their new riches as are Burnley, who make little appeal at their price given they have suffered just one defeat in six.

Racing Post's Joe Casey: This will be a tight race that goes down to the wire but from a punting perspective I think the value lies in siding with Brentford at 3-1. They are on a terrible run and don’t have players of the quality of Patrick Bamford and Kalvin Phillips returning from injury.

If Sean Dyche was to keep Burnley up it would be some achievement.

Racing Post's James Milton: On paper Brentford have a decent run-in but they have picked up just four points in ten games since Christmas and struggle to beat the teams around them.

Three of their six league wins came against top-seven clubs Arsenal, West Ham and Wolves and their record against the rest of the division doesn't bode well for crucial upcoming clashes with Newcastle, Norwich and Burnley.

Ladbrokes' Chris Pender: With a lot of football still to be played between now and May it will all depend on who holds their nerve.

At the moment it's not looking great for Leeds or Brentford, that can easily change with one good result though. Aston Villa and Leicester will also be looking over their shoulders.

Give us your nap for the midweek FA Cup matches?

Racing Post's Aaron Ashley: Both teams to score in Middlesbrough against Tottenham on Tuesday. Boro dumped Manchester United out in the last round and at home, where they have won seven matches on the spin, can cause plenty of problems for Spurs.

Both teams have scored in eight of Boro's last ten games in all competitions, while Tottenham are without a clean sheet in ten and conceded in earlier-round wins over Morecambe and Brighton.

Racing Post's Joe Casey: Luton are no pushovers for Chelsea after a tough trip to Wembley on Sunday. Nathan Jones has his side up to eighth in the Championship after nine wins from their last 12 league games.

Chelsea have conceded in their last two FA Cup rounds and both teams to score is fancied here.

Racing Post's James Milton: Luton or draw double chance against Chelsea on Wednesday.

The Blues have had a hectic schedule in 2022 and should be opposed at around 2-5 to win in 90 minutes against a Luton side who are pushing for the Championship playoffs and have won five of their last six games at Kenilworth Road.

Ladbrokes' Chris Pender: In-form Southampton to knock out West Ham.

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