Vuelta a Espana predictions and cycling betting tips: Almeida can seize Grand Tour chance

Where to watch the 2024 Vuelta a Espana

Stage one
Eurosport 1, 3.20pm Saturday

Best bet

Joao Almeida to win the Vuelta a Espana
1pt each-way 11-2 Betfair

Vuelta a Espana predictions

Cycling's third Grand Tour of the year, the Vuelta a Espana, lacks the romance of the Giro d'Italia or the prestige of the Tour de France, but it can produce thrilling racing.

And in a season which has also featured an Olympic Games, it could well be that this year's edition turns into the survival of the fittest.

While the Vuelta may lack some of the lustre of its Grand Tour cousins, it can often turn out to be the most demanding three-week tour of the year. The 79th edition, which begins with a time-trial around the streets of Portuguese capital Lisbon on Saturday, is no different with nine summit finishes. 

Tadej Pogacar has turned down the chance to try and win all three Grand Tours in the same year and his great rival Jonas Vingegaard is also absent, leaving a number of riders with a golden chance to add a Grand Tour to their CV.

Reigning champion Sepp Kuss, who came into last year's race as Visma Lease-a-Bike's third rider, is back after missing the Tour de France due to illness but the American won't be able to rely on Vingegaard or three-time Vuelta champion Primoz Roglic, who completed a 1-2-3 for Visma last year, with the latter now in opposition as the leader of Red Bull-Bora Hansgrohe.

There is no Pogacar but UAE Team Emirates still boast arguably the strongest squad, led by Briton Adam Yates and Portuguese climber Joao Almeida. 

Both helped Pogacar claim a third yellow jersey in July, Almeida finishing fourth and Yates sixth to the superstar from Slovenia.

They will be supported by Mexican rising star Isaac del Toro and veteran Spanish climber Marc Soler and everything looks in place for UAE to become the second team in succession to snaffle all three Grand Tours after Visma's domination in 2023.

Of the team's leaders, Almeida could be the man to focus on. 

The 26-year-old has an exceptional Grand Tour record, finishing in the top ten in all of his seven completed attempts at the Giro, Tour or Vuelta, the sole exception being when he failed to finish the 2022 Tour.

Almeida was regularly Pogacar's last lieutenant standing in France and it is possible that he could thrive without the need to sacrifice his own ambitions for that of his superstar teammate.

The Portuguese finished second to Yates at the Tour de Suisse in a customary show of dominance from UAE, but it could be a case of role reversal in Iberia over the next three weeks.

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