Tour de France Points Classification predictions and cycling betting tips

Free cycling tips, best bets and analysis for the 2021 Tour de France.

Where to watch

Stage One
ITV4 & Eurosport 1, 11.30am Saturday

Best bet

Arnaud Demare to win the points classification
3pts 3-1 Betfred

Green jersey preview

Sam Bennett's withdrawal from the Tour de France has left the door ajar in the points classification and Caleb Ewan is the favourite to step through.

The pair have been the fastest men in the peloton over the last 18 months and with eight sprint stages, there is ample opportunity for Ewan to prove his superiority having won five of the Tour's 12 bunch sprints since 2019.

However, he withdrew following two early victories at May's Giro d'Italia, and more early success could prompt the Australian to depart the race early as his aim for 2021 is to win stages at all three Grand Tours.

Therefore, it may pay to look elsewhere, especially as the points classification is no longer all about the pure speedsters.

Peter Sagan monopolised the classification between 2012 and 2019, winning the green jersey seven times. The Slovak's ability to contest the sprints and mop up intermediated-sprint points on mountainous days has been the blueprint of his success.

The Terminator is perhaps not the force of old but he is still a threat, as demonstrated by his victory in the points classification at last month's Giro.

Wout van Aert has overtaken Sagan as the most versatile rider in the peloton and has been given the opportunity to hunt stages and the yellow jersey in the first week. However, he will be called into action for Jumbo-Visma's leader Primoz Roglic, which is likely to curtail his quest for points.

With Thibaut Pinot out and David Gaudu set for a free role, Arnaud Demare has earned his place as Groupama-FDJ's leader.

The 29-year-old won Tour stages in both 2017 and 2018 and, after controversially being overlooked last year, proved his point with four wins and the points jersey at the 2020 Giro.

Demare's Classics pedigree marks him out as someone who can battle it out for the all-important intermediate-sprint points when the road heads skyward and after finally getting his chance as leader, it would be fitting to see the three-time French road race champion wearing green against the backdrop of the Arc de Triomphe.

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