Tour de France stage 16 predictions and betting tips: Philipsen to master final sprint test

Where to watch stage 16 of the Tour de France

Eurosport 1 & ITV4, from 12.05pm Tuesday

Best bet

Jasper Philipsen to win stage 16
1pt 11-8 Hills, Paddy Power

Tour de France stage 16 predictions

Tadej Pogacar's perfect weekend in the Pyrenees means he is now over three minutes clear of Jonas Vingegaard and appears well on course to become the first rider to complete a Giro d'Italia-Tour de France double in the same year since Marco Pantani in 1998.

Back-to-back stage victories for Pogacar, who is now 1-10 to win a third yellow jersey, in the mountains has left everyone on the back foot, but the good news for those still in the race is that the end is almost nigh. The bad news is that barring stage 16 on Tuesday, the final few days are ferocious.

Lumpy routes and few opportunities for the peloton to find any rhythm mean stages 17 and 18 could belong to the breakaway, while Friday and Saturday promise to be brutal, with four first category and two super category climbs included. 

There isn't even the consolation of a ceremonial ride around Paris this year. For the first time in over a century, the Tour concludes away from the capital, and, for the first time since 1989, it does so with a time trial.

Returning to Tuesday's stage, there is just one categorised climb to tackle on what looks to be the sprinters' final chance of this year's race.

Starting on the coast and languidly meandering inland, the organisers may have hoped for the Mistral to blow and split the pack, provoking some cat-and-mouse between the peloton and the breakaway. However, the weather looks set fair, and it should end in a bunch sprint.

Green jersey holder Biniam Girmay will be in the mix, but Jasper Philipsen is the man to beat after claiming two stage wins in the second week.

A combination of poor form and Alpecin-Deceuninck's lack of organisation has hampered Philipsen's Tour, but last year's points classification winner showed he could finish the job on his own in Pau on Friday and the Belgian could strike again.

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