England v Australia fourth Ashes Test predictions and cricket betting tips

In 2019 Ben Stokes led England to a stunning one-wicket victory in the third Ashes Test at Headingley but Australia hit back with a thumping 185-run win at Old Trafford.

Four years on, England are aiming to avoid a similar fate. They arrive in Manchester trailing 2-1 after another stirring Leeds triumph – by the relatively comfortable margin of three wickets this time – and their fast bowlers will be eager for a crack at Australia's batsmen.

The gripping nature of this series is reflected by the betting for the fourth Test. England, buzzing after the Mark Wood-inspired win at Headingley, are narrow favourites but Australia, who started their English summer with a comprehensive victory against India in the World Test Championship final, are unlikely to panic.

The weather forecast may cheer the Aussies as Mancunian rain looks likely to disrupt play on Saturday and Sunday, days four and five of the Test.

Draw backers have had a tough time since Stokes and coach Brendon McCullum took charge of England, whose last 16 Tests have produced 12 wins, four defeats and no stalemates.

The context of the match means England must press for a positive result to set up a decider at The Oval and the selection of Moeen Ali to bat at number three suggests they are unlikely to temper their aggressive approach with the series on the line.

It is hard to find an edge in the match betting at Old Trafford. England should have won at Edgbaston and could have won at Lord's, but ended up losing both Tests, while Australia had them on the ropes at 171-6 chasing 251 on the final day at Headingley.

England have named their team, with local hero James Anderson joining Stuart Broad, Chris Woakes and Wood in a vastly experienced bowling unit, and Harry Brook returning to his usual berth at number five.

Brook should be buoyed by his vital 75 in the run-chase at Headingley and he is worth backing to top-score in England's first innings. The youngster started the series in frantic style but still made 32 and 46 at Edgbaston and 50 in the first innings at Lord's.

His second innings in Leeds was a far more controlled effort, befitting a player who averages 64.25 after ten Tests, although he and his fellow batters will be wary of the threat posed by Mitchell Starc.

The left-armer should keep his place in the Australia side after taking 13 wickets in the last two Tests, including five of the seven to fall in England's second innings at Headingley.

Starc has enjoyed his previous Ashes visits to Old Trafford, dismissing Alastair Cook, Kevin Pietersen and Jonny Bairstow in England's first innings in 2013 and Stokes, Bairstow and Broad four years ago, and his ability to mop up the tail could be vital for the Aussies.

Team news

England
James Anderson has replaced Ollie Robinson in the only change to the 11 who played in the third Test. With Ollie Pope injured, Moeen Ali will bat at number three and Harry Brook drops down to five.

Australia
David Warner is expected to keep his place at the top of the order and Mitchell Marsh cemented his position with a century at Headingley. All-rounder Cameron Green is fit again and could come in for spinner Todd Murphy.

Weather forecast

Days one and two should be cloudy but dry. Scattered showers are forecast for day three with heavy rain on days four and five. Temperatures range from 16C to 19C.

Claim over £200 in free bets for the Ashes here + full terms and conditions for each bookmaker

Paddy Power Ashes free bets

Unlock up to £20 in cash back when you bet on the Ashes this week with Paddy Power.

New customer offer. Place your first bet at odds of min 2.0 (EVS) and if it loses we will refund your stake in cash. Max refund for this offer is £20. Only deposits made using debit cards will qualify for this promotion (Apple Pay deposits excluded). T&Cs apply.

Ladbrokes Ashes free bets

Make the most of your Ashes experience with Ladbrokes' exclusive offer – stake £5 and receive £20 in free bets.

18+. New UK+IRE customers only. Certain deposit methods and bet types are excluded. Minimum first £5 bet within 14 days of an account registration at minimum odds of 1/2 to get 4 x £5 free bets. Free bets are available to use on selected sportsbook markets only. Free bets are valid for seven days, and the stake is not returned. Restrictions + T&Cs apply.

Coral Ashes free bets

Secure a £20 free bet when you place a £5 wager on the Ashes this week with Coral.

18+. New UK & ROI customers only. Minimum deposit £5. Minimum first £5 bet at minimum odds of 1/2 to qualify for 1 x £20 free bet. Certain deposit methods and bet types are excluded. Free bet valid for seven days. Stake not returned. Restrictions + T&Cs apply.

Bet365 Ashes free bets

Get in on the Ashes action this week with bet365's enticing offer – claim a £30 free bet bonus by staking £10 on the Ashes.

Minimum deposit requirement. Free bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Minimum odds, bet, and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply.

William Hill Ashes free bets

Don't miss out on William Hill's incredible offer – bet £10 on the Ashes this week and receive £30 in free bets.

Play safe. From 00:01 on 13.04.2022. £30 bonus. New customers only. Minimum £10 stake on odds of 1/2 (1.5) or greater on the sportsbook. Further terms apply. 18+.

Betfair Ashes free bets

Place a bet of £5 or more on the Ashes with Betfair this week and receive £20 in free bets.

New customer offer. Place a minimum £5 bet on the Sportsbook on odds of minimum 1/2 (1.5), get £20 in free bets. Rewards valid for 30 days. SMS verification required. Only deposits via cards will qualify. T&Cs apply. Please gamble responsibly.

Sky Bet Ashes free bets

Calling all Sky Bet newcomers. Bet on the fourth Ashes Test and enjoy £30 in free bets.

New customers only. First single and each-way bet only. 5p minimum stake. 3 x £10 bet tokens. Free bet stakes not included in returns. Free bets exclude virtuals. Free bets are non withdrawable. No free bet expiry. Eligibility restrictions and further T+Cs apply. 18+. begambleaware.org.

Fafabet Ashes free bets

Get 50% of your first day losses back as a free bet with Fafabet.

New 18+ new Customers only. Deposit and bet on any sports with minimum odds of 2.0. Get 50% back of your first day's losses as a free bet up to £50+£20 Casino Bonus. T&Cs apply.

BetGoodwin Ashes free bets

Receive 50% of your first day losses back as a free bet with BetGoodwin.

Deposit and have a minimum of three bets of £10 or more on separate events at odds of evens (2.0) or bigger on the first day. 50% of first day losses refunded as a free bet. Max free bet £25. New accounts only.

Remember, gambling should always be a form of entertainment, not a problem. Be aware of the risks associated with gambling, and take steps to minimise them. If you need help or advice, call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 or visit www.gamstop.co.uk.

Commercial notice: This article contains affiliate links. Opening an account via one of these links will earn revenue for the Racing Post, which will be used to continue producing our award-winning coverage of sport and horseracing.

T&C's apply18+GambleAware.org

James MiltonRacing Post Sport

Published on 18 July 2023inThe Ashes

Last updated 13:23, 18 July 2023

Copy