England v Australia: Ashes Test series betting preview, predictions and tips

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Winning a World Cup and appearing in an Ashes Test match are career pinnacles for English cricketers but the 2019 crop can tick off those landmarks in the space of less than three weeks.

Several of the squad who clinched a thrilling victory over New Zealand in the final of the 50-over World Cup were back at Lord’s for last week’s frenetic Test victory over Ireland.

England were bowled out for 85 on the first morning before skittling the Irish for 38 in the fourth innings and their batsmen face a serious challenge against Australia’s quick bowlers.

The Aussies romped to a 4-0 home win in the 2017-18 Ashes but just three months later Australian cricket was in disarray after the ball-tampering scandal in South Africa.

Banned batsmen Steve Smith, David Warner and Cameron Bancroft have all been recalled to the Test squad and Australia, hammered by England in the World Cup semi-final, are 6-4 to win an away Ashes series for the first time since 2001.

Here is Racing Post Sport’s assessment of how the Ashes rivals stack up:

The batting units

England
England’s one-day success was based on a dominant and settled batting unit, in stark contrast to the struggles of the Test top order.

Their collapse against Ireland was the fourth time since 2016 that they had lost ten wickets in a session – before then, they hadn’t suffered that ignominy since 1938.

Of the top five who finished the 2017-18 Ashes in Sydney, only Joe Root is in the squad for the first Test at Edgbaston.

The skipper passed 50 in five of his nine innings in the Ashes down under but hasn’t averaged more than 39 in any of England’s six subsequent Test series.

Doubts over a possible top three of Rory Burns, Jason Roy and Joe Denly mean Root, reluctantly, is set to bat at three while Jonny Bairstow’s Test slump continued with a pair against Ireland and Moeen Ali averages less than 17 in the last two years.

Roy’s call-up is probably a worthwhile punt given the dearth of top-order options but he is yet another aggressive player in a line-up that so often folds in difficult batting conditions.

Much depends on World Cup heroes Ben Stokes and Jos Buttler, who were rested for the Ireland Test.

Stokes relishes facing fast bowling, making a brilliant century at the Waca in only his second Test appearance on the disastrous 2013-14 Ashes tour.

And Buttler has been one of England’s most consistent runscorers since his surprise Test recall in 2018, with eight fifties and a maiden century against India in just 24 innings.

Australia
Smith and Warner haven’t played a Test since returning from their 12-month ball-tampering bans but they dominate the top series runscorer betting for the tourists.

Smith produced a ruthless displays of Test runscoring in the last 2017-18 Ashes, scoring 687 runs in just seven innings, and he also made 215 at Lord’s and 143 at The Oval in Australia’s Test victories on the 2015 tour.

Warner piled up the runs in the IPL and the World Cup, where he was happy to take his time at the start of the innings.

A more cautious approach could help him improve a modest Test record in England where his top score after 15 innings is 85.

Opener Marcus Harris and middle-order man Travis Head gained valuable experience while Smith and Warner were banned.

Usman Khawaja averages 53 at home but just 25 in away Tests and, now one of the senior batsmen, he will be desperate to improve his record on the road.

Opener Bancroft sealed his return to the squad with a gritty 93 not out in a low-scoring game at Australia’s training camp at the Rose Bowl. Marnus Labuschagne also got the nod following a prolific Championship spell at Glamorgan, where he scored 1,114 runs in ten games.

Matthew Wade and Mitchell Marsh are hard-hitting options in the middle-order and captain Tim Paine, along with Khawaja and Head, helped Australia bat 140 overs to earn a draw with Pakistan in Dubai last October.

England haven’t shown that kind of discipline with the bat for a long time and, with Smith, Warner and Bancroft back, Australia will be confident of churning out match-winning totals.

The bowling attacks

England
Stuart Broad took 8-15 as Australia were shot out for 60 in Nottingham on the 2015 tour and Broad and Chris Woakes dismissed Ireland inside 16 overs at Lord’s last week.

The home seamers can be devastating in helpful conditions but the World Cup has taken its toll with Mark Wood, who fired England to a consolation win in the Caribbean in February, ruled out for at least the first three Ashes Tests.

The uncapped Jofra Archer should be unleashed but he struggled with a side strain during his glorious World Cup campaign.

James Anderson, now 37, missed the Ireland game with a calf problem but the pacy Olly Stone and left-armer Sam Curran are exciting options.

Australia’s batsmen tucked into Moeen’s off-spin during the
2017-18 Ashes, when his five wickets cost 115 runs apiece, and he also struggled to keep things tight in the 2015 series at home.

Australia
Just four bowlers – Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood and Nathan Lyon – shared the 87 English wickets to fall during the last Ashes series and the fearsome foursome are hunting for more scalps this summer.

Starc is an obvious threat given his record-breaking tally of 27 wickets at the World Cup and England’s weakness against
left-arm fast bowlers.

He claimed match figures of 10-100 in his most recent Test against Sri Lanka in February and Australia’s squad includes veteran Peter Siddle and the rejuvenated James Pattinson, who have been in county action for Essex and Nottinghamshire this season.

The control offered by Lyon’s off-spin is a crucial part of the Aussies’ gameplan with the ball and he totally outbowled Moeen in the 2017-18 series.

The Aussie bowlers caused havoc against their own batsmen in last week’s training contest, and scores of 105, 120, 170 and 156-5 should alarm England.

James Milton's Ashes verdict

England have won the last four home series against Australia, starting with their memorable triumph in 2005, but their vulnerable batting means that run could come to an end.

Since their 4-0 drubbing down under, they were bowled out for 58 in New Zealand and drew at home with Pakistan before a flattering 4-1 series win over India.

England were blown away by the Windies’ fast bowlers at the start of the year and Australia’s experienced quicks pose a serious threat.

The Aussies have had a tough 18 months but there seemed to be a good spirit in the camp at the World Cup and their batting unit is taking shape nicely. A 3-2 Australia win is a tempting bet given the quality of bowlers on show.

Recommendations
Australia to win series
3pts 6-4 general
Bet on the Ashes with bet365 here

Australia to win series 3-2
1pt 9-1 Betway, Hills
Bet on the Ashes correct score with William Hill here

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