Champions League winner odds and outright predictions from Mark Langdon

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for the outright market in the 2022-23 Champions League.

Champions League outright preview

The Champions League is much more of a marathon than a sprint but with the World Cup providing an unprecedented obstacle between the two phases this race to Istanbul could be unique.

It's become obvious that the group stage is set up to try to decrease the jeopardy for Europe's elite and that all those involved in the money-making machine want the really big clashes to come when everything is on the line in the knockout stage.

The football served up after Christmas is beyond question the best anywhere on the planet, although quite how the World Cup will impact this season remains to be seen.

Those who fancy teams prominent in the market may be better waiting until the knockouts. The price is unlikely to collapse too much and there will be more information available to make an informed opinion.

For now it is about which odds could seriously contract between now and February and 20-1 shots Barcelona fit the bill nicely.

The draw has not been kind, pairing Barca with Bayern Munich and Inter, but a matchday one date with Viktoria Plzen at least offers the Catalans a chance to put points on the board before those tougher assignments.

Barca failed to make it out of the group stage last season and were a shambles for much of the campaign as they struggled to recover from apparent financial oblivion as well as losing Lionel Messi.

Returning president Joan Laporta has riskily decided to mortgage Barcelona's future income by raising the capital for a sustained assault on Europe's premier club competition as well as selling various sponsorship deals, including one to Spotify.

From a long-term view it seems a terrible business decision but Barca's aggressive spending should be music to the ears of anyone looking to back them because the odds don't seem to reflect that this team is nothing like the one anticipated just a few months ago.

Paying in excess of £40m for now 34-year-old Robert Lewandowski would send shivers down the spines of moneyball fanatics but the Pole still makes opposition defenders quiver.

Lewandowski and Raphinha add a huge attacking threat to a forward line that already contained Memphis Depay, Ousmane Dembele, Ferran Torres and Ansu Fati.

The powerful Franck Kessie brings something different to a midfield of young starlets Gavi and Pedri, while Frenkie de Jong has remained and mainstay Sergio Busquets still protects a defence which is strengthened by the arrivals of Jules Kounde and Andreas Christensen.

Xavi can have no complaints with the squad at his disposal and early performances have offered huge encouragement, particularly the 4-1 and 3-0 away wins at Real Sociedad and Sevilla.

Barca's expected goals line has steadily gone up too - 2.1, 2.2, 2.9 and 3.2 - and they should get better as the new signings gel.

Manchester City's annual hunt for a maiden European Cup begins with a comfortable group and they were the best team in the competition even before adding Erling Haaland to the mix.

City deserve to be favourites, but how much shorter will they be in February? It doesn't feel like bookmakers are giving much away at the current price and the same is true of Paris St-Germain.

Messi, Kylian Mbappe and Neymar provide Paris with a world-class front three and there has been a lot of sense behind the recruitment this summer.

Renowned sporting director Luis Campos has brought in coach Christophe Galtier and they have mainly concentrated on midfield reinforcements with Vitinha, Fabian Ruiz, Carlos Soler and Renato Sanches boosting an area that had been a weakness.

PSG and City should go well and holders Real Marid can never be discounted.

Casemiro has departed, although Aurelien Tchouameni is a natural replacement, and they have won the Champions League five times in the last nine years.

However, the last of those triumphs involved incredible assists from Lady Luck at various points and at some stage their fortune will surely run out.

Bayern Munich will feel they have spent the Lewandowski money well, improving in both boxes with Matthijs de Ligt and Sadio Mane arriving. Coach Julian Nagelsmann is committed to playing all-out attacking football and that could trip them up at any point.

Liverpool have been in three of the last five finals and could leave their sluggish start behind as the season progresses but the same is also true of 2021 winners Chelsea, who are around three times the price of the Merseysiders.

Chelsea were beaten by Liverpool on penalties in two domestic finals last term - fine margins that could easily have gone their way - and Thomas Tuchel has since spent more than £250m.

The Blues need to improve but the Champions League is a long haul and there is a lot of football to be played between now and the final on June 10 next year.

Best bets

Barcelona to win the Champions League
1pt each-way 20-1 bet365, Hills

Chelsea to win the Champions League
0.5pt each-way 16-1 general

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