Paul Kealy's play of the day at York
Thunder Roar
At York's Ebor meeting there was a massive low-draw bias throughout the week, but I wouldn't bank on that being the case now, not least because at the most recent meeting on soft ground most of the horses avoided the far side like the plague and all the action unfolded on the middle to stands' side.
That leads me to think Thunder Roar must have a serious chance from stall ten in the opening Class 2 handicap (1.30) there, and given his record when the mud is flying, I'm surprised he's available at double figures.
A course winner as well, albeit one that got last October's 7f race in the stewards' room, Thunder Roar has form figures of 213112324 when the ground is soft or worse, and while he has yet to win at a mile, he certainly got it well enough when second of 18 in the Lincoln consolation at Doncaster in March.
He has held his form well when the ground has been soft, and the only time he has finished out of the first three on deep ground was last week, when he was beaten only two lengths over a mile at Ascot in a Classified event in which he was respectively 8lb, 7lb and 4lb worse off at the weights with those ahead of him than if it would have been a handicap.
He's officially 3lb well-in on the back of that, and those double-figure quotes look mighty generous.
Read this next:
'Double-figure quotes look mighty generous' - Paul Kealy with five Friday selections
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