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Paul Kealy's Betting World

'He remains an incredibly well-handicapped three-year-old sprinter' - Paul Kealy's horses to follow from Royal Ascot

My initial thought about Royal Ascot this year was I'd better keep quiet about my tipping and punting performance, but having had a thorough review I've decided things just did not go my way.

Of course, there were some dreadful selections in there, but with the rub of the green a few times I reckon I'd have come away with a good few winners at decent prices.

That's no consolation to the bank balance or anyone who followed me in, but I've emerged from the meeting pretty confident some of them can win races in the near future, and I've added a few more who caught the eye for your perusal here.


Twilight Calls
4th, King's Stand Stakes, June 20

After a couple of poor performances following his return from injury, it looks like Twilight Calls is back following his fourth in the King's Stand, in which he did well to finish where he did considering he was squeezed out at the start, but he arguably should have been third at worst.

It's pushing it to say he would have beaten Bradsell and Highfield Princess, but he was going as well as anything approaching the final furlong only to be denied a run. He'd have been up the back of the front two otherwise, and is worth a look as long as he gets fast ground.

Checkandchallenge
7th, Wolferton Stakes, June 20

Given the way he has finished over a mile, it was a surprise Checkandchallenge hadn't already been tried at 1m2f, but he got it well enough in finishing seventh and would have finished closer if he hadn't been dropped out right at the back on the inside from his outside draw (the winner was drawn on the outside and stayed there, and it was the place to be for most of the week).

He's a horse who needs a strong pace, and may not get one in small-field conditions races after this, but knock another pound or two off his mark (he's been dropped to 108) and I'll be all over him for the Cambridgeshire if, of course, he gets an entry.

Yerwanthere/Adelaise
5th/4th, Kensington Palace Handicap, June 21

I backed this pair at 8-1 and 20-1 for the Kensington Palace and genuinely believe they would have been first and second with a clear run. It didn't happen, but both will remain very well handicapped going forwards.

Joseph O'Brien had questioned beforehand whether Yerwanthere would be streetwise enough on just her fourth start, and she's likely to have learned plenty there. Of the two she's the one I like the most, but I'll be keeping an eye out for both.

Perotto
10th, Royal Hunt Cup, June 21

This was a painful reverse as he was my bet of the week ante-post (actually ended up having a bigger one later on) and he failed to figure, but I'm not giving up just yet. There was nothing unlucky about his run, but he was a last-to-first winner of the Britannia two years ago and I was expecting another hold-up performance.

Unfortunately David Egan had other ideas, racing prominently and chasing what turned out to be a near-suicidal early pace. It's true he has raced prominently at times before, but this was one of those days when it wasn't called for.

Still, he was one of the best of those who were up with the pace, and he has been dropped another 2lb after it. He'll get it right at some point.

Valiant Force is a first Royal Ascot winner for the late Malibu Moon
His Majesty (far side): burst clear of his rivals on the near side in the Norfolk StakesCredit: Edward Whitaker

His Majesty
4th, Norfolk Stakes, June 22

This was a race I didn't get involved in thankfully (it was won by a 150-1 shot from a 66-1 chance), but I really liked the way His Majesty burst clear of his rivals on the near side to win his group by a long-looking four lengths.

He ran arrow-straight to the line once in the clear and is clearly a top-class sprint juvenile. Races like the Railway and Group 1 Phoenix Stakes are surely his likely destinations.

Perfuse/Tagabawa/Wonder Legend
5th, 6th, 8th King George V Handicap, June 22

Rossa Ryan went into this race on my punt Davideo after winning the Norfolk on 150-1 Valiant Force and I can only assume he thought he was still on a sprinter as he took the field along in this 1m4f handicap at the most ridiculous pace I have ever seen. They went such a gallop that all 19 runners broke 11 seconds for their second furlong (his was a scarcely credible 10.22) and it was no wonder the pace collapsed.

Yet while he fell out the back of the TV, there were three who raced pretty prominently and were still there pitching after turning for home. All of them appeal as being very well handicapped but I particularly liked Wonder Legend, who cruised to the front turning in and really stuck his head out when it looked like he would be completely swamped. His trainer's rep blamed the ground for being too quick, but it was simply a case of chasing too strong a pace (and he raced ahead of the other two), and he'll be competitive on any ground if not overdoing it like that again.

New Endeavour
2nd, Britannia Stakes, June 22

One of the most painful results of the week for yours truly as he finished a 22-1 second yet absolutely hammered the horses on his side. Unlike some of the names I have mentioned, he has been punished for it with an 8lb rise, but New Endeavour, who has already shown he can quicken off a steady gallop, is a horse going places and he can be competitive off a new mark of 103 and maybe even in Listed/Group company by the end of the season.

That's assuming, of course, he's allowed to continue to race in Britain as he has been bought by the Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott Syndicate and his future obviously lies in Australia. That said, Waterhouse has allowed other horses to continue in Britain first, and he does have entries in the International on King George day at Ascot and the Golden Mile at Goodwood.

Matrika (left): xxxxx
Matrika (left): ran a promising race in the Albany StakesCredit: Alan Crowhurst

Matrika
2nd, Albany Stakes, June 23

As with Aidan O'Brien's His Majesty, you're not going to get fancy prices when you follow Matrika, but I'd be confident enough she'll prove the best of the bunch who ran in the Albany.

She went into the race having won only a maiden at the end of May, but she showed plenty of natural speed and nearly matched her half-brother The Wow Signal in winning at Royal Ascot as a juvenile. She was seen off by the more experienced Porta Fortuna, but wasn't given the hardest time by Ryan Moore at the end and she's very much a work in progress.

Live Your Dream
3rd, Duke of Edinburgh Stakes, June 23

Being a six-year-old, you'd imagine Live Your Dream wouldn't have a great deal more improvement in him, but he ran a cracking race in this fiercely competitive handicap, especially as he helped force the pace in a race that favoured those who came from further back and, in the case of winner Okita Soushi, a lot further back.

Live Your Dream was the only prominent racer to figure at the finish. A winner over as far as 2m two years ago, he has clearly returned as good as ever after the best part of two years off, and he'd be of serious interest if lining up for the 1m6f July meeting handicap he won in 2021.

Harry Brown
9th, Palace of Holyroodhouse Handicap, June 23

If you end up on the wrong side in a straight-course handicap it's just tough luck and that's how it played out for Harry Brown. With many more runners, the near-side group had a much stronger pace to chase, and by the time Harry Brown had mastered those on his side (challenging on the far side of the far side) the first eight had gone.

I'm not worried about his final finishing position as I'm convinced he remains an incredibly well-handicapped three-year-old sprinter who should be followed at 5-6f.

Lion Of War: unlucky at Royal Ascot
Lion Of War: unlucky at Royal AscotCredit: John Grossick

Lion Of War
2nd, Golden Gates Stakes, June 24

This one ended up being comfortably my biggest bet of the meeting and not, I hasten to add, simply because I was chasing. I loved the way he won at Musselburgh the time before and thought the early 12-1 and 10-1 was a gift from heaven. It nearly turned out that way, but Oisin Murphy decided to drop him in on the inside rail from his advantageous outside draw and he could not make up the ground in time.

Very few horses made up any sort of ground on that part of the track over the last few days, but Lion Of War was roaring home to give much-missed sire Roaring Lion a third runner-up of the week from just four runners. I think he should have won easily, so I am not too worried about a 6lb rise.

He will surely get entries in the big three-year-old 1m2f handicaps at the July meeting and Glorious Goodwood, and his yard has a history of winning both. He ought to bag one of them.


When my Racing Post colleague James Pyman wrote an eyecatchers piece for the paper he often used to suggest backing the horses on their next three starts and, while I'm not going to do that here (it doesn't allow for price sensitivity), I'm going to keep a record of what they do on that basis.

I will report back here at some point even if it all does go pear-shaped!


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Read this next:

'If anyone else had been on board they simply wouldn't have won' - Tom Segal with his Royal Ascot reflections 


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