Who wins the 2022 Juddmonte International at York based on previous trends?

Wednesday's big race is the Juddmonte International Stakes (3.35) and we have delved deep into the trends to see if history can help us determine the 2022 winner of this Group 1 prize.

3.35 York: Juddmonte International Stakes racecard and betting

Key races

There are plenty of different routes which can be taken to the Juddmonte International, but the most successful has been the Eclipse at Sandown.

Roaring Lion (2018) and Ghaiyyath (2020) both won the Eclipse in their previous start, with Native Trail the only horse coming straight to York from that race having finished third at Sandown. Two are coming from the King George, however, which was a race that Ulysses (2017) and Mishriff (2021) used as a stepping stone.

Mishriff is back for another crack, which is interesting, but the Sussex Stakes is another good warm up. Rip Van Winkle (2010) and Frankel (2012) finished second and first in that race respectively in their previous start, which is good news for Baaeed backers.

Ratings

The best of the best tend to win the Juddmonte International, which is no surprise, as one of the premier Group 1s in Britain over 1m2f.

The lowest-rated winner in the last 12 renewals was the 109-rated Arabian Queen, who caused a mighty shock in 2015 when she downed Golden Horn.

Arabian Queen (8) holds off Golden Horn in a 2015 thrillerCredit: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos)

Ten of the last 12 renewals were won by horses rated 120 or higher, with a further seven rated 123 or higher. With that in mind, Baaeed, Mishriff and Native Trail are the only horses who can win based on that trend.

Distance

Ten of the last 12 winners had run at least once over the 1m2f or 1m3f distance, while six of the 12 had at least one win over the trip.

Frankel and Australia were both having their first run over 1m2f when they won their respective races and that augers well for Baaeed, who steps up in distance with a similar reputation.

It is worth remembering, however, that Australia was dropping back in trip.

Class

Eleven of the last 12 winners of the Juddmonte International had won a Group 1 previously, which goes to show the class of horse needed to win this race.

The only horse without a top-level success was Arabian Queen, who had won at Group 2 and Group 3 level. Seven of those renewals went to a horse with multiple Group 1 wins, which furthers the argument for backing the most successful horse in the race.

Odds

Unsurprisingly, shocks are very rare in this race. Arabian Queen stunned the racing world at 50-1 in 2015, but besides her success, the biggest-priced winner in the last 12 renewals was just 11-2.

Seven of the twelve went to either the favourite or second-favourite, with prices ranging from 1-10 to 3-1.

Frankel after winning the 2012 renewal at 1-10Credit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

Verdict

Interestingly, there is only one horse that meets all the trends, and that is last year's winner Mishriff.

He was last seen finishing third in the King George, one of the key trial races, and meets the upper end of the ratings trend at 124. He's won three times over this distance, is a dual Group 1 winner and finally, he is the second-favourite at the time of writing.

For those taking short prices on Baaeed, do not despair, as the only trend he misses out on is the distance one. That did not seem to bother Frankel, however. . .

Juddmonte International Stakes (3.35 York, Wednesday)

Sky Bet: 2-5 Baaeed, 3 Mishriff, 13-2 Native Trail, 16 Alenquer, 25 High Definition, 33 bar

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