Who wins the 2022 Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby based on previous trends?

Irish Flat racing's showpiece race, the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (3.45), takes place on Saturday at the Curragh. We've taken a look at previous trends to help you try to find the winner.

Key races

Unsurprisingly the Derby at Epsom is the main guide to finding the winner of the Irish equivalent and Camelot (2012), Australia (2014) and Harzand (2016) have completed the double in the last ten runnings.

The beaten Derby horses have an even stronger record in that timeframe, with four of those who were defeated at Epsom bouncing back to score at the Curragh.

Jack Hobbs (2015), Capri (2017) and Sovereign (2019) were joined on that list last year by Hurricane Lane, who stepped up from his third in the Derby.

The three Irish Derby winners in the last decade who had not run at Epsom were Trading Leather (2014), Latrobe (2018) and Santiago (2020), although the most recent of those came when the Irish version was staged before Epsom due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Westover is the standout contender from this year's Derby, having finished third behind Desert Crown, while Piz Badile (12th) and Glory Daze (14th) disappointed at Epsom.

Ratings

As is the case with most Classics, it typically takes a high-class performer to win the Irish Derby, with half the winners in the past decade achieving a Racing Post Rating of 120 or above.

Westover, who achieved an RPR of 121 for his luckless third at Epsom, is the only one of the eight runners to have reached that mark, but it is fair to say most Irish Derby winners reach a new high on RPRs.

The only three not to do that in the past decade were Derby winners Camelot, Australia and Harzand, who had produced their best at Epsom and did not have to do as much to follow up at the Curragh.

Westover (left) finishes third in the Derby behind Desert CrownCredit: Edward Whitaker

That suggests improvers are the ones to note and two in that category are Oaks heroine Tuesday and Cocked Hat Stakes winner Lionel, who have bettered their previous-best RPR in each race.

Distance

An Irish Derby winner needs to be a strong middle-distance stayer who will relish the 1m4f trip and Capri and Sovereign are the only two of the last ten winners who had not won over at least 1m2f during their three-year-old season.

All eight runners this year have won over 1m2f or further, including Westover's victory in the Group 3 Classic Trial and Lionel's success in the Cocked Hat over 1m3f.

Half of the last ten winners had already won over the trip and again that works in favour of Tuesday, whose Oaks win came over 1m4f, while rank outsider Boundless Ocean finished second in the King George V Cup over that trip at Leopardstown last time.

Class

Seven of the last ten winners had a Group win on their CV before their Curragh triumph, with Jack Hobbs, Latrobe and Sovereign the ones to have bucked the trend. Camelot, Australia and Harzand, the three Derby winners who followed up here, were the only ones to have scored at Group 1 level.

Tuesday and Ryan Moore are led in after winning the OaksCredit: Edward Whitaker

Proven ability at Group level certainly brings Tuesday, Piz Badile and Westover into the equation and it is also a positive for Hannibal Barca, who struck in Pattern company for the first time in the Group 3 Gallinule Stakes last month.

Four of the last ten winners – Trading Leather, Jack Hobbs, Capri and Hurricane Lane – had been placed in Group 1 company, which is another plus for Westover.

Odds

Four odds-on favourites were successful in five runnings from 2012 to 2016, but recent years have thrown up more surprises.

Only one of the last five favourites has won (Santiago in 2020) and in that time there has been a 33-1 shock with Sovereign in 2019, while Latrobe obliged at 14-1 the previous year.

Tuesday and Westover head the betting but it may pay to look at Piz Badile, Lionel and Hannibal Barca, who are the next three in the market and have decent claims.

Hannibal Barca and Shane Crosse land the Gallinule StakesCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

Verdict

Despite only three fillies taking the Irish Derby in the last 122 years, Oaks heroine Tuesday still ticks most boxes as she bids to become the first female winner since Balanchine in 1994.

The form of her Classic win has already been rubber-stamped and that was her first try over 1m4f, suggesting there could be plenty more improvement to come at this trip.

Chief rival Westover holds solid claims, while the one with most potential to upset the top two is Hannibal Barca, who struck in Group company for the first time at this track in May.

2022 Irish Derby offers

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• Sky Bet are offering new customers free bets when they sign up. You can get them, along with money-back specials and extra places, here.
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• Don't have a Coral account? They have an offer for new customers here.
• bet365 have a new customer offer available. Sign up here.
• New William Hill customers can claim free bets here and benefit from their money-back offers here.
• 888 Sport have free bets for all new customers. Sign up here.
• If you're a new customer, Tote will give you a free bet. Sign up here to claim.

If you want more on the 2022 Irish Derby:

Who wins the 2022 Irish Derby? Assessing the key Curragh Classic contenders

'Disappointing but understandable' says Hornby on losing Westover ride

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