Who will win the 2022 Cazoo Oaks at Epsom based on previous trends?

The third British Classic of the season, the Cazoo Oaks, takes place on Friday at Epsom. We've taken a look at previous trends to try to help pick the winner.

4.30 Epsom, Friday: Cazoo Oaks racecard and betting

Trials

The five designated Oaks trials – the Pretty Polly Stakes, Cheshire Oaks, Newbury Fillies' Trial, Lingfield Oaks Trial and the Musidora Stakes – generally have a modest record in finding the Epsom winner.

The track at Epsom is very unique with its sharp left-handed turn and its famous undulations, which is why trials should not be the only deciding factor – perhaps the most similar track is Lingfield, which produced the 2019 winner Anapurna.

Rogue Millennium took the Oaks Trial at Lingfield and was duly supplemented for the Epsom Classic.

Rogue Millennium was supplemented after winning at LingfieldCredit: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos)

Rating

It takes a top-class filly to win the Oaks. Since 2012 only Was, trained by Aidan O'Brien, and the John Gosden-trained Anapurna have won the Epsom Classic with a Racing Post Rating of less than 115.

It has also helped to focus on the improving horses in the field with eight of those winners achieving a career best RPR on their last start – only the Aidan O'Brien pair Minding and Qualify took the Oaks having not done this.

Two of the Aidan O'Brien contingent - Concert Hall and Tuesday - didn't achieve a career-best RPR last time out, so if strictly following the trends, they may be two to avoid, although completely ruling out the Irish trainer's horses is a brave decision.

Distance

Eight of the last ten winners have won over seven furlongs or a mile at two.

The two exceptions to that trend are 2018 winner Forever Together and 2019 scorer Anapurna, who were unsuccessful as juveniles.

Hot favourite Emily Upjohn won over a longer trip as she was successful over 1m1½f at Wolverhampton, while stablemate Nashwa finished third on her only juvenile start.

Nashwa is second favourite for the Oaks having not won as a juvenileCredit: Edward Whitaker

Unexposed

It pays to follow those who come into the race with big potential to improve, shown by the fact six winners since 2012 only had between two and six starts.

Those four to have bucked the trend were all trained by Aidan O'Brien, including last year's winner Snowfall, who had more starts than that as a juvenile alone.

The last twice John Gosden has won the Oaks his horses came into the race with three prior starts, the same as ante-post favourite Emily Upjohn.

Price

Starting at the head of the market does not mean success, with only two favourites coming home first in the last ten runnings – Love and Minding.

The race has thrown up big-priced winners, with the likes of Qualify at 50-1 in 2015, while 2012 and 2013 winners Was and Talent both won at 20-1, so it could be worth taking on those at the head of the market.

Verdict

The selection is Emily Upjohn, a John and Thady Gosden-trained daughter of Sea The Stars who comes here after three starts, one of many big-race pointers in her favour.

Emily Upjohn fits the unexposed tag and heads the market for the OaksCredit: Edward Whitaker

Having a RPR of 127 puts her firmly in the picture and well-above the 115 that has been needed previously and she took the leading Oaks trial in preparation for this on her third start.

The only negative is that she is likely to start favourite having been impressive so far, but Love took this race at 11-10 in 2020 and Emily Upjohn could be a potential middle-distance superstar.

Cazoo Oaks betting

bet365: Evs Emily Upjohn, 9-2 Nashwa, 7 Concert Hall, Tuesday, 8 With The Moonlight, 12 Rogue Millennium, 14 Tranquil Lady, 20 Thoughts Of June, 33 bar

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