Who will win the 2022 Cazoo Derby at Epsom based on previous trends?

The fourth British Classic and one of the world's most famous races, the Cazoo Derby (4.30), takes place on Saturday at Epsom. We've taken a look at previous trends to help you try and find the winner.

4.30 Epsom, Saturday: Cazoo Derby racecard and betting

Trials

The recognised Derby trials – the Ballysax Stakes, Newmarket Stakes, Chester Vase, Dee Stakes, Lingfield Derby Trial, Leopardstown Derby Trial and Dante Stakes – have a modest record of producing the Derby winner, with some of those enjoying stronger successes than others.

Given its similarity to Epsom, it is no shock that the Lingfield Derby Trial has enjoyed a resurgence, having produced two of the last three Derby winners in Anthony Van Dyck (2019) and last year's hero Adayar, who finished second in that trial before Classic glory.

That could be a good omen for Walk Of Stars, who finished second to late Derby absentee United Nations in that race this year.

The Chester Vase has provided two Derby winners in the last decade – Wings Of Eagles (2017), who finished second on the Roodee, and Ruler Of The World (2013) – which may be a good sign for this year's winner Changingoftheguard.

Desert Crown: could his impressive Dante Stakes win work against him?Credit: Edward Whitaker

Crucially, those towards the top of the market may be up against it on trends. No Dante winner has followed up in the Derby since Golden Horn did so in 2015, which may work against Desert Crown.

The Newmarket Stakes and Leopardstown Derby Trial have not produced a Derby winner this decade, which works significantly against Nations Pride and Stone Age.

However, ignore Ballysax Stakes winner Piz Badile at your peril, given Harzand completed the famous double in 2016.

Rating

Unsurprisingly, it takes a top-class performer to win the Derby and only one in the last ten runnings – Anthony Van Dyck in 2019 – did not achieve a Racing Post Rating of 120 or higher.

It also pays to keep track of the improvers coming into the contest given seven of the last ten winners achieved a career-best RPR on their previous start, which brings Desert Crown, Stone Age, Nations Pride, Changingoftheguard, Piz Badile and Star Of India into the reckoning.

Blue Riband Trial winner Nahanni did not achieve that in his previous Epsom win, so he could be one to avoid, although it's hard to knock course form.

Distance

Staying is the name of the game when it comes to the Derby and six of the last ten winners managed to win over a mile or further in their juvenile season.

The exceptions to that trend were Masar, who won a Group 3 as a two-year-old over 7f, while Serpentine, Harzand and Ruler Of The World did not score until their three-year-old campaign.

Stone Age: did not break his maiden tag until AprilCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

That could work in favour of Aidan O'Brien's leading contenders Stone Age and Changingoftheguard, who also broke their maidens as three-year-olds, while Desert Crown won over 1m½f on his debut last November.

Unexposed

The Derby tends to go to one who still has the scope to greatly improve as seven of the last ten winners had between two and four starts before Derby glory, which could strengthen the twice-raced Desert Crown's case.

That is not to say those with experience on their side cannot win the race however. Masar and Anthony Van Dyck remarkably ran eight times before winning at Epsom, which is the same number dark horse Royal Patronage brings into this year's race.

Stone Age has similarly been kept busy with seven runs, two of which have come in Group 1 company.

Price

The Derby has been a graveyard for favourite backers lately, with the last to score being Golden Horn back in 2015.

Four of the last five winners have come at double-figure prices, including Wings Of Eagles' incredible 40-1 success in 2017, while both Adayar and Masar struck at 16-1, so it would be unwise to discount any lively outsiders.

Verdict

It is hard not to be taken in by likely favourite Desert Crown, given he ticks plenty of the trends boxes needed for a Derby winner after just two starts.

Having already achieved an RPR of 120 with his Dante success – arguably the most favoured Derby trial – and given he was a winner over an extended mile as a juvenile, the pointers are all in the right direction for another Epsom Classic success for Sir Michael Stoute.

The biggest negative is his place as market leader and one who could run a big race at a price could be Royal Patronage, given his experience, class (defeated 2,000 Guineas winner Coroebus in the Royal Lodge Stakes) and more uniquely, the fact he already has course-winning form.

Cazoo Derby betting

Sky Bet: 13-8 Desert Crown, 4 Stone Age, 7 Nations Pride, 17-2 Changingoftheguard, 9 Piz Badile, 16 Walk Of Stars, 18 Star Of India, 22 bar

2022 Cazoo Derby offers

• Paddy Power are giving away free bets to new and existing customers, and all you need is an account. Sign up here.
• Sky Bet are offering new customers free bets when they sign up. You can get them, along with money-back specials and extra places, here.
• Betfair have lots of offers, extra places and money-back offers. Sign up for a new account here.
• To get a free bet from Ladbrokes today, simply sign up to a new account here.
• Don't have a Coral account? They have an offer for new customers here.
• bet365 have a new customer offer available. Sign up here.
• New William Hill customers can claim free bets here and benefit from their money-back offers here.
• 888 Sport have free bets for all new customers. Sign up here.
• If you're a new customer, Tote will give you a free bet. Sign up here to claim.

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