What you need to win the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham

While the Paddy Power Gold Cup enjoyed a purple patch when it was won by top-class performers such as Exotic Dancer, Imperial Commander and Al Ferof earlier this century, the majority of its recent winners have been battle-hardened handicappers who, quite remarkably, are relatively exposed and do not score that often over fences.

Excluding top-level winner Taquin Du Seuil in 2016, the average number of chase wins nine of the last ten winners of Cheltenham's November showpiece race had achieved was just two. Indeed, last year's winner Coole Cody and 2014 victor Caid Du Berlais had recorded just one win over fences at that stage of their career.

Those same nine winners averaged nine runs over fences before landing the Paddy Power Gold Cup, so it is not like they lacked chasing experience.

The trends seem to be against leading hope Protektorat, whose RPR of 160 is higher than the race-winning average of 156 over the last ten years, while he has also had just five chase outings.

Dan Skelton's six-year-old is also lacking chase form over intermediate trips in Cheltenham handicaps, a trend held by six of the last ten winners, with three of those successful having previously run in the Paddy Power Gold Cup itself. Protektorat has a course win over fences under his belt, but it came in novice company.

The median weight of the winners from the last ten runnings has been 10st 11lb, suggesting those towards the middle or bottom of the card may be the best option when attempting to identify the winner. One of those who could fit the bill is another Skelton-trained entry in Spiritofthegames.

He rarely wins over fences – his sole chase success (and most recent victory) coming in a Listed novice chase at Chepstow more than three years ago – but is ultra-consistent in competitive handicap chases at Cheltenham.

His form in those types of races is 33P2262 – including a career-best second off a 4lb higher mark in last year's Paddy Power Gold Cup – and his RPR of 154 is just 2lb shy of the winning average over the last decade. While every winner since Annacotty in 2015 had had a prep run, it should not put you off backing Spiritofthegames, who has won three times after absences of more than 150 days and tackled this race first time out last term.

Plenty of punters will be attracted to Protektorat, but do not rule out Spiritofthegames going one better than 12 months ago.

2.15 Cheltenham: Paddy Power Gold Cup racecard and betting

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