Weekend focus: why ignoring the favourites could pay in the Rose of Lancaster - plus ITV Racing highlights

Ante-post punters should always be alive to the each-way terms on offer in races like the Rose of Lancaster Stakes (3.00) at Haydock on Saturday.

There are 13 initial entries and we are getting three places for a contest that has attracted seven runners or fewer in eight of the previous ten runnings. The chance to beat the market on the day is live, although landing on the correct horse is where the challenge lies.

The two who head the betting are probably best ignored. Ed Walker seemed in two minds regarding whether to run Almaqam here or in the Prix Guillaume d’Ornano in France next week, saying in his Weekender column the three-year-old “won’t be overraced this season”. That’s a red flag when considering taking short odds ante-post. 

Anmaat, favourite with most firms, won this two years ago for Owen Burrows, but he is returning from 439 days off the track. Will he badly need the run, and how much ability does he retain as a six-year-old?

On 2023 form, Lord North would knock your eye out at a standout 7-1. However, there is a lingering feeling his best days are behind him, and improving types like Al Mubhir and Bracken's Laugh make greater appeal as each-way candidates from those priced in Lord North’s ballpark.

The William Haggas-trained Al Mubhir, with Tom Marquand pencilled in for the ride, gives the impression he has more to offer at middle distances after impressing in Sandown's Gala Stakes for a yard responsible for two of the past five Rose of Lancaster winners.

Bracken’s Laugh, long touted as potentially the best horse Richard Hughes has trained, seemingly found the ground too lively when fifth in the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. This lightly raced youngster has been given a nice break since and should have plenty more to offer. Rain in the forecast significantly increases his chances of turning up.
Robbie Wilders, The Ante-Postman

Weekend focus: four things to watch out for

Listed ambitions

Jack Channon will return to a mile with three-time winner Caernarfon and Saturday’s Listed Dick Hern Stakes at Haydock (4.45) is under consideration.

The four-year-old filly won a Listed contest at Pontefract over the same trip on her penultimate start, but she was unable to follow up in the Group 3 Meadow Court Stakes at the Curragh last time.

Channon said: “It’s not definite she’ll go but we’re definitely looking at it. She’s in good form and worked lovely yesterday.

“A mile is her trip, she didn’t quite see out one-mile-one at the Curragh, so we’re definitely campaigning her over this trip. If not then we’ll go for the Atalanta Stakes in a few weeks.”

Shergar Cup swap

There has been a change in the Ladies team for Saturday’s Shergar Cup at Ascot as Saffie Osborne will be replaced by Joanna Mason.

Osborne will instead head to Haydock for a full book of rides, which will see Mason make her second appearance in the competition after riding one winner on her debut in 2022.

Among Osborne’s rides at the Merseyside track is the Ed Walker-trained American Arrow, who made an eyecatching debut when scoring at the track last month. She goes for the Listed Dick Hern Stakes and is 7-1 third favourite with William Hill behind Indelible and Rainbows Edge.

Red-hot Sangster

Trainer Ollie Sangster is operating at a 44 per cent strike-rate in the past fortnight and could be double-handed in the Group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes at Newmarket (3.40) on Saturday.

Sangster has sent out four winners from nine runners in that period and could saddle Flight and Angelica Bay in the feature.

Flight, who has finished second in both her career starts, is a 7-1 chance with Hills, while stablemate Angelica Bay is a 33-1 outsider.

The market is headed by the Aidan O’Brien-trained Lake Victoria, who is a 5-4 shot after her debut success at the Curragh in June. O'Brien holds an overall 19 per cent strike-rate on the July course.

Going change

Ascot’s Shergar Cup fixture on Saturday is likely to be run on good ground after clerk of the course Chris Stickels changed the going.

The going on Tuesday morning was described as good to firm, good in places, but following more rain than expected, Stickels provided an update on conditions.

He said: "We had just under 6mm and we could have a couple of millimetres before racing, but we’re not anticipating much to change further. 

"We could dry a bit between now and Saturday, but we were expecting 2-3mm today and we ended up with 6mm, which was quite helpful."

Saturday's ITV Racing schedule

• 1.35 Ascot: Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Dash (Handicap) | 5f, 3yo+, Class 2
• 2.10 Ascot: Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Stayers (Handicap) | 2m, 4yo+, Class 2
• 2.25 Haydock: Betfred "The Classic Bookmaker" Handicap | 1m, 3yo+, Class 3
• 2.45 Ascot: Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Challenge (Handicap) | 1m4f, 4yo+, Class 2
• 3.00 Haydock: Betfred Rose of Lancaster Stakes | 1m2½f, 3yo+, Group 3
• 3.20 Ascot: Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Sprint (Handicap) | 6f, 3yo, Class 2
• 3.40 Newmarket: Jenningsbet Sweet Solera Stakes | 7f, 2yo, Group 3
• 3.55 Ascot: Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Classic (Handicap) | 1m4f, 3yo, Class 3
• 4.30 Ascot: Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Mile (Handicap) | 1m, 4yo+, Class 2
• 4.45 Haydock:  Irish Stallion Farms EBF Dick Hern Stakes | 1m, 3yo+, Listed

Read more...

'You can't run away from one' - Owen Burrows relishing City Of Troy challenge with course specialist Alflaila 

Joanna Mason replaces Saffie Osborne as Shergar Cup riders are announced 

July Stakes scorer Whistlejacket one of five Aidan O'Brien contenders left in Saturday's Group 1 Phoenix Stakes 

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