Was there a Guineas draw bias? Swap it around and Native Trail wins, I'd say

If there are any students out there in need of a topic for their doctoral thesis, may I suggest: Attempts At Ensuring A Fair Contest For The Guineas Through Track Layout And Stalls Position. A few different configurations have been tried over the years but the evidence of this weekend suggests we haven't cracked it yet.

Personally, I was a fan of the cutaway rail which held sway from 2015 to 2018. It allowed the stalls to be placed against the stands' rail, which the field could then race along until two and a half furlongs from the finish, when the false rail would end to open up an extra six horse-widths of space on the stands' side.

It was a means of ensuring that horses stuck on the rail behind the leaders would get a run, because the field would fan out after the cutaway. You could set the stalls next to a rail and not worry that the best horse in the race would spend the last half-mile trying to crawl over the backs of those in front.

The cutaway was, I think, a response to Night Of Thunder's Guineas. It was a funny-looking race in which the field raced in two packs, one along either rail, and spent much of the mile separated by a huge expanse of grass. The winner was on the far side until hanging dramatically over towards the near side in the final 100 yards.

There was a certain amount of shock that a 40-1 shot had managed to turn around the Greenham form with the strongly fancied Kingman. I remember Kingman's connections feeling their horse had been mugged by having nothing to race with in the closing stages as Night Of Thunder disappeared over to Australia's side. Australia's connections could make the same complaint; their colt was winning his side of the race quite easily until Night Of Thunder parachuted himself into it.

Whatever the thinking behind the cutaway rail, it reduced the width of the track in the early stages and at least encouraged the field to race together. And while the Guineas did not always pan out like that, I think the races in those years were basically fair.

The cutaway rail in the 2,000 Guineas of 2015, won by Gleneagles

For reasons that passed me by, the false rail was ditched in 2019 and the stalls put back in the centre, leading to a 2,000 Guineas in which three horses raced against the stands' rail, well away from the pack, to finish first, second and fifth out of 19. Apart from a blip in the Covid-affected year of 2020, the stalls have remained in the centre.

At the Guineas meeting last year, I remember thinking there seemed to be an advantage for those horses who raced centre-to-far-side. It's a difficult thing to measure because horses don't necessarily run to their draws and some move across the width of the track during a race.

Plus, even if we accept there may be a bias, it's not at all clear which section of the track would be conferring an advantage. If, say, one strip were drier or smoother or less undulating than another, that would be most unlikely to remain true for the whole length of the straight.

But there were a few races in which those that had been towards the far side finished to better effect than those that had stayed in the middle. Mother Earth, for example, seemed to be in the right place while Alcohol Free was up against it, though needless to say I didn't follow up on that thinking by backing Alcohol Free in the Coronation or, indeed, the Sussex.

It was a similar experience at the weekend. Two of the first four races on Saturday were won by the horses that raced closest to the far rail and the tendency seemed, to these eyes, to show up in other races where the field was spread out rather than tightly bunched. The obvious exception would be King Of Time winning his handicap debut despite hanging across to the near side after trouble in running; I can only think he's a fair way ahead of his mark.

What do the Guineas look like, seen through this prism? Coroebus (stall one) was surely in the right place and Native Trail (15 of 15) in the wrong place. Swap the draw around and run the race again in a fortnight, Native Trail wins, I'd say. But it's easy to say that when no one imagines these stablemates will take each other on again.

Eydon (10) and Lusail (12) can have their runs marked up, especially Lusail, who had to switch almost to the stands' rail in search of daylight and then got bumped. Point Lonsdale (11) was eased when beaten and can do a lot better than this. Checkandchallenge (13) travelled strongly until things started to go wrong and would be interesting back on the all-weather.

Cachet won the 1,000 Guineas from stall three, with Tuesday (stall four) in third. Stall one housed a 200-1 shot who duly finished last, one place behind the horse from stall two, who ran no race.

James Doyle completes dream weekend to register famous Guineas double on Cachet

Prosperous Voyage could be regarded as a bit unlucky, having started from stall nine and raced a lot closer to midtrack than Cachet at various times. Zellie and Sandrine are others who could be marked up, especially Sandrine, a stablemate of Alcohol Free who may have been similarly unlucky with her stalls position.

But the prize for rotten luck goes to William Buick, who had the widest draw in both Guineas. I did wonder if he might drop Wild Beauty out and switch to the far rail in the 1,000 but that would have been a brave move, considering the flak it would attract unless it worked out perfectly.

Certainties are hard to come by, when it comes to discussion of draw bias. I intend no slight to those who worked hard to prepare the track, or to winning connections who are certain their victory was entirely deserved.

It will always be hard to provide a level playing field for horse races. But I think we were closer with that cutaway rail.