'They're both 16-1 and have the potential to shorten significantly' - part one of our Cheltenham Festival Punting Club special

The Cheltenham Festival is almost upon us! Looking ahead to what promises to be an unmissable four days, our resident Punting Club judges Harry Wilson, Joe Eccles and Liam Headd are on hand to discuss hot topics and their best festival wagers . . .

What chance do you give Irish Point of beating State Man in the Champion Hurdle?
William Mackenzie

Joe Eccles: Irish Point is a fairly smart hurdler, but I’m surprised his connections aren’t aiming him at the Stayers’, given how impressive he was when landing the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown over 2m7½f. I’d struggle to see him winning a Champion Hurdle unless the ground got really testing, and in any case, State Man isn’t ground-dependant. In Constitution Hill’s absence, this looks like a penalty kick for the Mullins-trained runner.

Harry Wilson: Absolutely none. Even Irish Point’s best effort, which came when upped to just shy of three miles last time, leaves him with something to find, not least dropping back to this distance. State Man’s only defeat in Grade 1 company came to Constitution Hill last year and he is by far the best hurdler in Ireland, so his short price is very much justified. Lossiemouth, getting a 7lb allowance, would have a better chance of getting close to State Man than Irish Point if connections opt for this over the Mares’.

State Man: hot favourite for Tuesday's Champion HurdleCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

Liam Headd: State Man has been presented with a perfect opportunity to win the Champion Hurdle as a result of Constitution Hill’s unfortunate absence, and I expect him to do just that. Although the seven-year-old finished nine lengths back in second last year, he stayed on well and he has been going through the gears this season with a hat-trick of Grade 1s. I’d be surprised if Irish Point doesn’t take State Man on with no Constitution Hill in the race, but the Willie Mullins star has unbelievable speed over this trip and I expect him to take advantage of this golden chance.

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Is Lossiemouth the banker of the meeting in the Mares’ Hurdle?
Russell Collins

Joe Eccles: At the prices I’d actually be inclined to take her on, Russell. I don’t think last year’s Triumph Hurdle was much of a race and I wouldn’t want to be taking short odds about any horse at the festival whose stamina is unproven. I expect stablemate Ashroe Diamond to at least give her something to think about. Her form looks rock-solid and she won with far more in hand than the two-and-a-half-length margin suggests at Doncaster last time.

Harry Wilson: I wouldn’t call any horse who is yet to try the distance they are running over a banker. Lossiemouth oozes class and her defeat of last year’s Mares’ Hurdle runner-up Love Envoi at Cheltenham in January was something to behold. She is probably the standout in the division but tends to race quite keenly and that would be my only reservation stepping up in three furlongs in trip against rivals proven at the distance.

Liam Headd: There’s still question marks as to which race Lossiemouth will go for, given that she holds a Champion Hurdle entry and the long-time favourite has been ruled out. However, if she does take her chance in the Mares’ Hurdle, for which she is an odds-on chance, I’d still be happy to take her on. She produced a career-best Racing Post Rating to win the Unibet Hurdle at Cheltenham in January, but that was over a shorter trip and she has never raced over two and a half miles. If the expected rain arrives and the ground comes up soft, I’d be looking elsewhere in the market. Now that it’s been confirmed that he’s running in the Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle, Ballyburn would be my banker of the festival.

I really fancy Banbridge in a weak-looking Ryanair, what are your thoughts on the race?
Lee Wainwright

Joe Eccles: You can get 3-1 about Banbridge with bookmakers offering non-runner money back. That looks a bit of a gift as he’s very ground-dependant, so if conditions are unsuitable he won’t run and you’ll get your stake back. Should his connections decide the ground is okay, he will surely go off a lot shorter than 3-1 for this contest. However, if the ground was too soft, that would bring Protektorat into the picture. He hasn’t really kicked on since his impressive 2022 Betfair Chase success but ran a cracking race in last year’s Gold Cup in which he briefly hit the front turning for home before fading into fifth late on. Under similarly positive tactics, he could be difficult to peg back and the 14-1 with the same non-runner money back safety net looks a good play and should leave you covered for all weather eventualities.

Banbridge: is he the horse to beat in the Ryanair?Credit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

Harry Wilson: I don’t think it’s a weak-looking affair at all, Lee. There’s last year’s first and third, Envoi Allen and Hitman, Grade 1-winning novices Banbridge and Stage Star, three horses who’ve run in Gold Cups, Conflated, Protektorat and Ahoy Senor – the field could be stacked. If the ground was suitable – no worse than good to soft – then I think Banbridge certainly has a chance. He was impressive at Kempton in December, travelling strongly and picking up well to beat Pic D’Orhy by almost two lengths, and that rival franked the form when seeing off L’Homme Presse and Ahoy Senor in the Ascot Chase last month. But Conflated looked set to chase race-specialist Allaho home in the 2022 running before falling at the second last and might be best placed to pick up the pieces with lots of likely pace on.

Liam Headd: I think this is one of the most wide-open contests of the week and it will cut up given that many runners will be targeted at other races. El Fabiolo, Fastorslow and Edwardstone are just a few names with other assignments. Banbridge sits towards the top of the market, but my concern with him is the possibility of soft ground. He was pulled out of the festival 12 months ago because of the ground, and it would be a worry for connections if the rain arrived. With that being said, I’m keen on Stage Star’s chances. He has a strong record at the track, with all three wins coming on soft ground, and this has been his target all season. He was pulled up last time out, but you can put a line through that run on heavy ground. If he returns to similar form as when winning the Paddy Power Gold Cup in November then he has a big chance.

Have you got any strong fancies in the festival handicaps?
Alastair Bruce

Joe Eccles: The County Hurdle could have a big say in the success of my festival as two of my strongest handicap fancies run in the race. Lump Sum is a progressive novice hurdler who will benefit from a strongly run two miles and I think there’s plenty of wriggle room in his mark of 135. He’ll be going into my staking plan with the Emmet Mullins-trained So Scottish. He finished seventh (beaten ten and a half lengths) at the festival in last year’s Plate and that race has worked out very well since. He’ll be running off a 10lb lower mark in the County and put in a confidence-boosting round when fourth at Leopardstown last month. Both he and Lump Sum are currently 16-1 and have the potential to go off at significantly shorter prices.

Harry Wilson: I’m hoping Nicky Henderson opts for handicaps over Graded races with Lucky Place as he is my strongest selection, whether he tackles the Coral Cup or Martin Pipe. He has improved since stepping up in trip and went down by just half a length to the unbeaten Gidleigh Park in a Grade 2. A mark of 137 could underestimate him. I also think Kim Bailey has a well-handicapped pair in Chianti Classico and Trelawne and he will probably split them up in the Ultima and Kim Muir. If the ground is really soft, I’ll be with Trelawne, who will relish the step up in trip having shown strong form over shorter behind the likes of Ginny’s Destiny, Grey Dawning and Colonel Harry. Chianti Classico beat a subsequent dual winner by more than 14 lengths on his chasing debut and is open to more improvement.

Liam Headd: Paul Nicholls has a good record in the Boodles and I believe he has another big opportunity to strike this year with Liari. The four-year-old is 3-3 since joining from France and has improved significantly on RPRs on each start. He’s ground versatile, so any rain in the forecast won’t be an issue, and it looks like there’s plenty more to come from him. I was keen on Doddiethegreat’s chances in the Betfair Hurdle and I thought he ran a cracker in fourth. He holds entries for both the Coral Cup and Martin Pipe, but is another who goes on most ground and I’d fancy him to go close in whichever race he goes for.

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• The second part of The Punting Club special will be available to read on Monday morning

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