The Punting Club: our judges answer your Cheltenham Festival questions
The Punting Club is back. We have compiled your 2023 Cheltenham Festival questions in the first of a two-part special and put them to our resident judges Harry Wilson, Charlie Huggins, Joe Eccles and Owen Goulding, who (hopefully) have all the answers ahead of four days of incredible action at Prestbury Park, starting next Tuesday.
Can Bravemansgame upset the Irish applecart in the Gold Cup? Russell Collins
Harry Wilson: I don't think he can. There's no doubting his King George victory was impressive but I've never liked that race as a guide to a horse's chances in the Gold Cup, given the tracks are complete opposites. The form of his Charlie Hall win isn't strong – Eldorado Allen is no world-beater and Ahoy Senor severely underperformed – and the Irish challenge is extremely deep this year. Galopin Des Champs has looked like a machine in his two Grade 1 victories this term and looks a worthy favourite. Add to that last year's 1-2 A Plus Tard and Minella Indo, who is my main fancy, plus the likes of Noble Yeats and Conflated, and the Gold Cup should be heading to Ireland.
Charlie Huggins: I am keen to take on Galopin Des Champs and I think Bravemansgame is the most likely winner. His jumping is by far the best of the leading contenders and he proved his class in open company when landing the Charlie Hall Chase and the King George VI Chase. Paul Nicholls has been cleaning up the domestic Graded races this season with Bravemansgame's King George win one of three top-level triumphs along with Hermes Allen in the Challow and Tahmuras in the Tolworth. The champion trainer nominating Bravemansgame as his best chance of a first festival winner since Politologue over his other 2023 contenders caught my eye, especially as I think Hermes Allen is almost banker material for the Ballymore. Noble Yeats is a worry, though, especially given how the Grand National winner was staying on over a trip a furlong shorter than this in the Cotswold Chase on Trials day.
Joe Eccles: I'm certainly warming to his chances. He won the King George with bags in hand and Harry Cobden's mount was almost back on the bridle jumping the second-last. The dry forecast is a big plus, but I'd be a little concerned that he appears to need plenty of daylight throughout his races. Cobden had him three-wide in the King George and he's going to have to be some horse to win with those tactics deployed in a Gold Cup.
Owen Goulding: You need the perfect mix of speed and stamina to win a Gold Cup and I don't think that Bravemansgame has that. He jumps for fun and travels like a dream, but I just don't see him seeing it out strongly enough when push comes to shove. I think Galopin Des Champs is a very similar horse and I would prefer him over Paul Nicholls' eight-year-old, for all that I would be keen to take both of them on with Noble Yeats. He had the perfect preparation in the Cotswold and his odds are very attractive, given he is almost a shoe-in for the places with his finishing effort.
Looking at the Mares' Hurdle, I can't help but feel Epatante is value at the prices when compared to Honeysuckle. I feel while Honeysuckle appears to have regressed, the former appears to have taken a step forward this year. Thoughts? David Valkenborghs
Harry: It's a real shame to be talking about the Mares' Hurdle for Honeysuckle. Last year's Champion Hurdle winner should be trying to defend her crown. Having said that, I thought Epatante had her measure in the Champion Hurdle last year before a mistake at the last checked her momentum. Nicky Henderson's star mare has lost nothing in defeat behind Constitution Hill this season and duly won a race she was entitled to at Doncaster. I completely agree that Honeysuckle isn't the force of old, while Epatante seems every bit as good as she always has been. I'm all over Epatante for the festival.
Charlie: I have to disagree with Harry that Honeysuckle should be running in the Champion Hurdle. Connections have quite rightly gone with a race she has a greater chance of winning. The three-time Cheltenham Festival winner has no chance of beating Constitution Hill and the Mares' Hurdle is still a Grade 1 in its own right, although this is a more competitive affair than what Honeysuckle won in 2020. Epatante landed the Champion Hurdle that year and definitely has the class to win this race, but I do have some niggling stamina doubts regarding the Nicky Henderson-trained star. Yes, she won the Aintree Hurdle over this trip last year but 2m4f at the Merseyside track is a completely different ball game than that distance at Cheltenham. It's a trappy looking contest in all and one I won't be getting overly stuck into, but I couldn't be siding with Epatante over Honeysuckle at this trip at Cheltenham.
Joe: I'm also fairly keen to take on Honeysuckle, with this looking a deep running of the mares'. Is Epatante the value? She won easily at Doncaster but the second was rated 118 so it's certainly not form to be getting too excited about. If Brandy Love takes a step forward from her Punchestown reappearance, which came at a track that she clearly detests, I expect her to run a huge race. She's less exposed than the top two in the betting and last April's eight-length Fairyhouse victory over Love Envoi is an exceptional piece of form.
Owen: Given her two defeats this season, I'd agree with Charlie that Honeysuckle should not be running in the Champion Hurdle. In her current form, she has little chance of placing, with a Racing Post Rating of 146 last time illustrating that. Epatante, who has done little wrong in chasing home Constitution Hill, is certainly the pick of the two, but neither of them are value to me. The incoming rain has put me firmly in the Love Envoi camp, given that she was a comfortable winner of the mares' novice last season on soft ground and is unbeaten on heavy. She has only improved this season and should run them ragged if she gets her preferred surface.
Would you have Mighty Potter as a banker at the festival? Jason O'Brien
Harry: He's not a banker and I certainly won't be including him in my multiples. The proximity of Gaillard Du Mesnil in the Drinmore is alarming considering the runner-up needs at least three miles – possibly even four – to be seen at his best, and his most recent win was a walk and sprint, which he'll not be afforded at Cheltenham. He's likely to head to the Turners, for which he is favourite, but there are plenty in with chances and I couldn't put him in the banker category.
Charlie: Yes. Galopin Des Champs would have become the fifth favourite or co-favourite to win this race in the last eight years in last season's event had he not fallen when clear under Paul Townend at the final fence and Mighty Potter can extend the solid recent record of market leaders. Banbridge has to be respected as he steps up in trip from his Grade 2 success here at the November meeting but most of the others near the head of the betting won't run. El Fabiolo and Dysart Dynamo will go for the Arkle, while Sir Gerhard looks set for the Brown Advisory. Stage Star and Balco Coastal fall short of Grade 1 class over fences in my opinion so it will pay to keep it simple with Mighty Potter, who has demonstrated his ability at this level when scoring in the Drinmore and at the Dublin Racing Festival.
Joe: Mighty Potter is an exciting horse but I'd be taking his Dublin Racing Festival win with a pinch of salt given the field plodded around and he outsprinted them in the home straight. Mighty Potter's yet to jump at genuine Grade 1 pace over fences and given that he completely bombed out in the Supreme last year I couldn't place him in the banker category at the festival.
Owen: Mighty Potter wins, I can't see any other outcome. He has been imperious over fences this season and there seems to be no chinks in his armour. He's proved he can quicken off a slow pace or knuckle down. Banbridge will appreciate the sterner test, but Mighty Potter gave him a sizeable beating at the Dublin Racing Festival and I cannot see him turning that around. Beyond that rival, there is nothing in the race who can land a glove on him.
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Will Willie Mullins be the top Cheltenham Festival trainer this year? Julian Barned
Harry: A look through the ante-post market would almost have you believe Willie Mullins could win every race at the festival. Mullins always has an incredibly strong team and he's bound to rack up his share of wins but I don't think it's as clear-cut as some suggest. Nicky Henderson has so many horses in with a shout – Constitution Hill and Shishkin look the most certain –and he's sure to push the Irish champion trainer all the way. I'd be siding with Henderson.
Charlie: No, well not outright at least. It seems crazy given that he sent out a record ten winners at last year's meeting and I still think he will saddle five winners at this year's festival. The Triumph Hurdle and Mares' Chase are done deals for Mullins and Ruby Walsh was very sweet on the chances of Impaire Et Passe in the Ballymore recently. I don't like Galopin Des Champs in the Gold Cup or Facile Vega in the Supreme, but Il Etait Temps and Gaillard Du Mesnil could still help the Closutton trainer to two winners on the opening day. The latter has been the long-term ante-post favourite for the National Hunt Chase, but if Gordon Elliott's Chemical Energy can overturn last season's Brown Advisory third then things will start to get interesting. Elliott is fancied to win this year's Brown Advisory with Gerri Colombe as well as the Turners with Mighty Potter. Throw in one of the bankers of the week in Delta Work in the Cross Country and the fact that Elliott will load the Martin Pipe with runners in attempt to win the race named in his former mentor's honour then it may not be a foregone conclusion for Mullins.
Joe: I'm not convinced Mullins will be as dominant as some believe, but his strength in depth makes him tough to oppose for the top festival trainer title. Is there a betting without Mullins market? I'd have a few quid on Paul Nicholls for the runner-up berth – he's got a far stronger team than in recent years.
Owen: With the firepower he possesses, I will be gobsmacked if Willie Mullins isn't top trainer at the festival. Granted Nicky Henderson has a strong shout, as does Paul Nicholls, but neither have enough firepower to live with the sheer volume of Grade 1 horses Mullins will be bringing over.
I think Corach Rambler can do the Ultima double even though it might be heart in the mouth stuff again. What do the panel think? Lee Wainwright
Harry: It was a great sight to see Corach Rambler cutting through the field before winning going away under one of the all-time great festival rides from Derek Fox. However, he won last year carrying just 10st 2lb – the first seven all carried 10st 6lb or less – and although he's rated only 6lb higher he has to carry almost a stone more than he did then. I think he's highly unlikely to do it again, but given he's proven over course and distance he couldn't be completely ruled out.
Charlie: Only Noble Yeats is shorter in the betting for the Randox Grand National than Corach Rambler, who I don't fancy to back up last year's win in the Ultima. Un Temps Pour Tout proved going back-to-back in the race can be done when completing the double in 2017, but David Pipe's charge was not being targeted at the Grand National like Corach Rambler. Noble Yeats proved last year that a good prep run for the National is not necessarily reflected in a high-placed finish prior to the Aintree showpiece, when he was ninth in the Ultima. Happygolucky appeals more to me at nearly double the price. Kim Bailey's nine-year-old won a novice chase over this sort of trip in December 2020 and brings plenty of festival form to the table, having been fourth in the Martin Pipe earlier that year before chasing home Vintage Clouds in this race the following season.
Joe: Corach Rambler is certainly not handicapped out of things now rated just 6lb higher, but I think connections will have one eye on Aintree this year and this might be viewed as a tee-up for the Grand National.
Owen: There are just three horses who have won the Ultima twice – Sentina (1957, 1958), Scot Lane (1982, 1983) and Un Temps Pour Tout (2016, 2017) – which outlines the size of the task Corach Rambler has in front of him. This year's contest looks particularly competitive and as a result I would have to be against him doing the double. Into Overdrive is the improving force, while Threeunderthrufive is the class angle, but I would vouch for Coeur Serein. His jumping needs to improve, but he is handicapped to be a big player and should relish a stiff test at Cheltenham.
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