The Punting Club: '20-1 is a bonkers price' - your Cheltenham Festival questions answered

The Punting Club is back. We have compiled your 2023 Cheltenham Festival questions in the second of a two-part special and put them to our resident judges Harry Wilson, Charlie Huggins, Joe Eccles and Owen Goulding, who (hopefully) have all the answers ahead of four days of incredible action at Prestbury Park, starting next Tuesday.

Read part one here:

The Punting Club: our judges answer your Cheltenham Festival questions 

I think Marie's Rock is a certainty in either of her entries. What do you think? Richard Lilesmartt

Joe: That's a bold statement. I thought she was very impressive when landing the Relkeel on New Year's Day and I'm glad connections are now leaning towards the Stayers'. Her 7lb allowance will be some asset in that race and I don't envisage problems with the trip. I'll take her and Home By The Lee against the field – he was a big eyecatcher in this race last year and has taken his form to a new level since.

Harry: No horse is ever a certainty but she has definitely got a great chance in both the Mares' and the Stayers'. I think her chances increase more in the latter, which looks an extremely open race this year. She carried on from where she left off last season with a reappearance victory in the Relkeel, with top-class opposition no match for her that day. She looks like she'll stay well and could take the staying division by storm. The Mares' looks tough, especially with stablemate Epatante certain to line up.

Charlie: Bar the brilliant Big Buck's, I would be wary of labelling any horse a certainty in the Stayers' Hurdle. The Mares' Hurdle would be the race I would go for if she was my mare and she's by no means a certainty for that given the depth of the race this year. After Marie's Rock made a superb winning reappearance in the Relkeel Hurdle on New Year's Day, trainer Nicky Henderson said the plan drawn up with Middleham Park's racing manager Tom Palin had been the Relkeel followed by a defence of both her Mares' Hurdle crown and the Punchestown Grade 1 over 2m3f, a race she won last year. I don't see the need for them to deviate from that. Yes, the way she stayed on up the hill at Cheltenham last time was impressive and she has won over 2m5f before, but that was in Listed company against her own sex rather than in Grade 1 company against the boys at the festival. I think the Liverpool Hurdle, a race Henderson has won twice before with Whisper, would be a much better destination to attempt 3m+, especially with there being a four-week gap between Cheltenham and Aintree this year, although that would undoubtedly scupper Punchestown plans.

Owen: There are no certainties in racing, that's for sure, but I dearly hope Nicky Henderson sends her to the Stayers' Hurdle as I think it is a weak division crying out for a potential star, and she is certainly a wonder mare. That being said, she's more than likely to head to the Mares' and I don't blame Henderson if he goes that route – he's in the business of winning races, not appeasing the public! Regardless of where Marie's Rock goes, she should go off favourite and will likely take the world of beating, especially with a 7lb allowance in the Stayers'.

Assuming Shishkin runs in the Ryanair, should he and Constitution Hill be the festival double of the century? James Gibson-Wynes

Joe: It's never that easy, is it? Constitution Hill is a freak and wins the Champion Hurdle by as far as he likes, but I'd be far more tepid about Shishkin's chances. It was great to see him bolt up in the Ascot Chase but I'm not sure that was the strongest race and you've got three good horses in the Ryanair in Blue Lord, Fury Road and Janidil who provide strong opposition.

Harry: Both of them are odds-on for their respective races and look better than their likely opposition. Constitution Hill is the best horse I've ever seen, everything seems so easy for him and there is not a shred of doubt over his Champion Hurdle chances. Shishkin is class and proved Nicky Henderson right by storming to victory when upped in trip for the Ascot Chase. His potential rivals aren't at his level and no Allaho makes his life even easier in the Ryanair. I don't think Allaho would beat Shishkin anyway, so the double looks extremely likely.

Shishkin: proved Nicky Henderson right by storming to victory when upped in trip for the Ascot ChaseCredit: Alan Crowhurst

Charlie: Constitution Hill is the best horse I've seen in my lifetime. It was a joy to be at Sandown to watch his first Grade 1 win in last season's Tolworth Hurdle and to be at Newcastle to witness him score on his seasonal reappearance in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle in November. I look forward to seeing him race in the flesh for a third time as he takes the Champion Hurdle on the bridle. Meanwhile, Shishkin should win later in the week as there isn't much depth to the Ryanair Chase this year, although Fury Road could be interesting. I tipped the Gordon Elliott-trained nine-year-old for this race at 20-1 in an ante-post piece we did on January 4, on the basis that Allaho wouldn't make it to defend his crown and that owner Michael O’Leary would want a runner in the race he sponsors with his fellow entry Conflated likely to head to the Gold Cup. Fury Road is now as short as 9-2 with BoyleSports and on the strength of his from behind Cotswold Chase winner Ahoy Senor at Aintree last season, in a race in which he also beat L'Homme Presse and Bravemansgame, he could take advantage if Shishkin underperforms like he did when being pulled up in last year's Champion Chase.

Owen: On paper, it looks bombproof doesn't it, James? Constitution Hill is head and shoulders above his rivals in the Champion Hurdle and, bar a mishap at the hurdles, I cannot see him getting beaten. Shishkin, on the other hand, is slightly less of a certain thing. We already know that the 2021 Arkle winner is not the most straightforward and, although he was deeply impressive at Ascot, he is not sure to back it up at Cheltenham. If he does, he will run rings around his Ryanair rivals, but I would not want to be taking the general 4-6 to find out. In all likelihood he will win, but as last year's Champion Chase showed not everything is as simple as the bare form.

Which outsider is good value for the Gold Cup? Colette

Joe: Protektorat should be shorter than 14-1. He made a pig's ear of the final fence in last year's Gold Cup and it'd have been easy to fold after that error, but he showed guts to stay on for third. He didn't run a bad race in the Cotswold and I'm confident Dan Skelton would have left a bit to work on, so he should be getting to the festival at the top of his game.

Harry: If there is one horse who is far too big it's Minella Indo at 20-1. That price is ridiculous considering he's finished first and second in the last two years. The 15 lengths between him and A Plus Tard in last year’s Gold Cup was exaggerated. Minella Indo chased a strong pace – all other prominent runners faded badly including dual winner Al Boum Photo. With the winner arriving under a cloud after a poor Betfair Chase run, there's no reason he can’t turn the tables. Minella Indo returned with a gutsy victory over Stattler in the Savills New Year's Day Chase at Tramore, prevailing by a neck over a trip far too short, and is nice and fresh in a bid to regain his crown from 2021.

Minella Indo: his Gold Cup price is "ridiculous", says Harry WilsonCredit: Edward Whitaker

Charlie: I'm with Harry in that Minella Indo is quite clearly the wrong price – 20-1 about a former winner of the race who has form figures of 1212 around Cheltenham, all in Grade 1 races, is a bonkers price. He proved his wellbeing when winning the same Tramore Grade 3 that Al Boum Photo twice used en route to Gold Cup success on New Year's Day. He will likely have a new partner in the saddle in Mark Walsh, but that isn't a concern given the rider has displayed his capability on the big stage at the festival when coolly delivering Espoir D'Allen to win the Champion Hurdle in 2019. Minella Indo simply has to be backed each-way.

Owen: I agree with Joe that Protektorat should be far shorter than his current price. He was a good third in this race 12 months ago and was an impressive winner of the Betfair Chase in November. He was below his best at Cotswold Chase, but it was a respectable showing and he should be fully wound up come raceday. I'm also interested in Capodanno, who was a Grade 1 winner at Punchestown last April and returned with a promising third at Gowran Park over an inadequate 2m4f. He would need to improve plenty, but he is unexposed and goes on any surface, making him a fascinating each-way option.

Can you give a handicap winner now the weights have been published? David Dunn

Joe: The handicapper has given Dinoblue a huge chance in the Grand Annual off a mark of 140. She was just three lengths off the now 151-rated Impervious at Cork, with the front two pulling 14 lengths clear of a 135-rated hurdler. Willie Mullins' six-year-old was backed into 11-8 for last year's Mares' Novices' Hurdle and has now been sent off the outright favourite in six of her seven career starts, so must work like a decent horse at Closutton. The bookies have her at 7-1 for the Grand Annual and I can see her going off at half that price.

Harry: I think it's a safer bet to stick with an Irish horse and Path D’Oroux is a fascinating potential runner in the County Hurdle. He looks nicely weighted and open to untold improvement. Comfortable victories in a maiden and a novice flank two underwhelming efforts but they came when tried in Grade 1 company. The form of his maiden hurdle win has been franked by the runner-up winning twice since and his second attempt at the top-level was better than it looked, finishing behind three horses who are short enough prices for Grade 1s at the festival. His mark of 141 was the same rating of last year's winner, he's had only four starts over hurdles and trainer Gavin Cromwell is having a fine season. His select team should be noted come the festival. At odds of 14-1, I'll be hoping he'll make his handicap debut a successful one.

Summerville Boy: Charlie Huggins suggests you take the 40-1 about him for the Coral CupCredit: Edward Whitaker

Charlie: I always prefer leaving the Boodles, Pertemps, Plate, Kim Muir, County Hurdle and Martin Pipe until the final fields are confirmed but the Ultima, Coral Cup and Grand Annual are easier to form a view about at an earlier stage. I've already made the case for Happygolucky at 16-1 in the Ultima, while Before Midnight (20-1), who won on his only previous visit to Cheltenham, and Sizing Pottsie (33-1), last seen in Grade 1 company at the track on Trials day, look attractively treated in the Grand Annual. Summerville Boy at 40-1 with Sky Bet for the Coral Cup would have to be my best handicap bet, however, and I am seriously hoping that he is an intended runner for Henry de Bromhead. A classier horse is needed to win the Coral Cup nowadays, with the last six winners of the race having contested at least one Graded race before triumphing at the festival. Eight of the winners in the last decade had Cheltenham experience prior to their win in the festival. Summerville Boy, a winner of the Grade 1 Supreme Novices' Hurdle for Tom George in 2018 and the Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle in 2020, fits the profile as a Graded course winner. No 11-year-old has won the race since its inception in 1993, but Summerville Boy has run respectably in Graded company on both of his starts for De Bromhead this season, being beaten only by leading Stayers' Hurdle hope Teahupoo in the Galmoy Hurdle last time. With the exception of his 2018 Tolworth Hurdle victory, all of Summerville Boy's six career successes have come at left-handed tracks, so a return to Cheltenham over a trip of 2m5f on what would be a belated handicap debut of 143 is of serious interest. Don't let the chunky odds put you off having an each-way poke, especially as it's non-runner no bet and given the fact 13 of the last 14 winners have been double-figure prices, including shock 50-1 and 33-1 successes for the past two years.

Owen: I'll do you one better David and give you two for the Wednesday! Saint Segal (Grand Annual) is a young chaser going places, winning two of his three starts, and was unlucky not to make it 3-3 when second to Malystic at Doncaster last time. He will relish a strongly run race and should have plenty of improvement to come for a yard in red-hot form at present. You can also have Beacon Edge, who looks the perfect type for the Coral Cup. A mainstay at the top-level in recent years, he would be making his handicap debut off a mark of 145, which is extremely generous on the best of his form. His latest third in the Boyne Hurdle was a return to form and a repeat of that level would give him a huge chance in this field.

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