'Paddington or Tahiyra for the QEII? I wouldn't back either of them' - your Champions Day questions answered

Qipco British Champions Day takes place at Ascot on Saturday with the spectacular six-race card giving us another chance to see some of the leading lights of the 2023 Flat season in action.

Looking ahead to what promises to be an unmissable Saturday's racing, our resident Punting Club judges, Harry Wilson, Joe Eccles and Liam Headd, are on hand to discuss hot topics and their Champions Day wagers . . .

Do you think that Trueshan is a good bet to beat Kyprios in the Long Distance Cup? It looks like they will get rain and he has a really good record in the race.
Michael Eason

Joe: At the prices, I think he is, Michael. Kyprios was incredible last season, his spectacular 20-length Prix du Cadran win a notable highlight, but I was left underwhelmed by his reappearance second in the Irish St Leger where he never looked like reeling in Eldar Eldarov. He is facing a fit and firing Trueshan who you can set your watch to in this race, so I feel the 2-1 available on Alan King’s staying star represents better value than the 11-8 about Kyprios.

Trueshan: bids for a fourth consecutive victory in the Champions Long Distance CupCredit: Mark Cranham

Harry: I was disappointed by Kyprios on his reappearance, although losing over a trip short of his best after an enforced 344-day break through injury to a horse like Eldar Eldarov shouldn't be judged too harshly. That may put him spot on for this and if he shows anything like his form from last year, he's still the one to beat. Trueshan looks revitalised, will no doubt enjoy the soft ground and has won this for the last three years, so I wouldn't put you off, but thinking it's a two-horse race could be a mistake. Sweet William found the battle-hardened Trueshan too strong in the 2m2f Doncaster Cup, having lost momentum after making contact with the rail when in front, but over two miles, I'd be inclined to take the improving Sweet William over the main market principals.

Liam: We know how much Trueshan relishes testing ground and for that reason I’d favour him over Kyprios. It was great to see the Aidan O’Brien-trained five-year-old return in the Irish St Leger, but it still remains to be seen if and when he can return to the form of last season following his long layoff. Trueshan has won this race in each of the past three years and the recent wind surgery seemed to have worked wonders given how he improved from winning the Doncaster Cup to scoring comfortably in the Prix du Cadran.

I fancy Sandrine in the Champions Sprint, what do the panel think of her chances?
Russell Collins

Joe: Sandrine won impressively in the Park Stakes at Doncaster, but I strongly fancy the third Spycatcher to reverse those placings in the Champions Sprint. Karl Burke’s five-year-old is not a strong stayer over 7f and a stiff 6f on soft ground, which he will get this weekend, looks to be his peak conditions. He got the better of Sandrine in the Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville earlier this season and I think he’s the better sprinter.

Harry: I've followed Sandrine ever since backing her at 16-1 when she won the Albany, and there's every chance she can go well. Since the visor went on, she went down by only a length in the City of York Stakes and won on soft ground in the Park Stakes. She's already got a defeat of Kinross on her CV and will like conditions, so there's reason for optimism. Having said that, I backed Vadream ante-post at the five-day confirmation stage after seeing all the rain we were forecast, so I'll be hoping she does the business. She relishes bad ground and could give Charlie Fellowes a breakthrough Group 1 victory.

Liam: Sandrine has improved for the fitting of a visor but I can’t overlook last year’s winner Kinross, who bids to give Frankie Dettori a memorable winner on what could be his final race meeting in Britain. The recent rain is in his favour and he is very much the one they all have to beat.

Are you in the Paddington or Tahiyra camp for the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes?
Gurtake Singh

Joe: Paddington. I was not as surprised as some by his odds-on defeat in the Juddmonte International. Aidan O’Brien felt after York that a busy early-season campaign had caught up with him, but I suspect the good to firm ground – the quickest he had faced – was a significant factor. Saturday’s surface should be far more up Paddington’s street, whereas main market rival Tahiyra would want it quicker. Although he never seems to win by far, I expect Paddington to add another Group 1 to his CV.

Paddington: will he return to winning ways in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes?Credit: Edward Whitaker

Harry: Would it surprise you if I said neither? Paddington has been very good this season, but it's hard to ignore the fact he didn't look his best when the ground was soft at Glorious Goodwood, and he followed that with defeat in the Juddmonte. There were plenty of excuses made after that, but if connections truly thought he was that good, surely he'd be in the Champion. I like Tahiyra, but her form is nothing to write home about, and I really can't see past Nashwa. The drop to a mile saw her run out a devastating winner of the Falmouth, in which she had Remarquee, who might have beaten Tahiyra with a clear run in the Coronation, five lengths back in second, while she also finished ahead of Paddington in the Juddmonte. She seems to be getting quicker and will be a force in this.

Liam: Both three-year-olds have continued to prove themselves at the highest level, and the combination of quick ground and the step up in trip could have been the reason Paddington’s unbeaten run came to an end in the Juddmonte International. Tahiyra has been campaigned brilliantly by Dermot Weld and I’d expected her to be much shorter than her 4-1 odds when declarations were announced. I’m still leaning towards Paddington, though, as Aidan O’Brien felt his run at York came too soon after Goodwood. With it now being a month since his last appearance, he’ll be primed to get back on the winning trail.

King Of Steel seems to have a similar profile to Cracksman coming into the Champion Stakes and I’m hoping he can produce a career-best performance. What do the panel think?
Lee Wainwright

Joe: I'm concerned he is becoming a bit tripless, Lee. He didn’t look a strong stayer over 1m4f in the King George, but was then getting going too late over 1m2f in the Irish Champion Stakes. Soft ground should ensure this is more of a stamina test, but I’m not convinced he wants it bottomless given how he struggled on heavy ground as a juvenile. I feel like all of the horses towards the top of the market have something to prove, and my plan is to take them on and instead dutch Via Sistina and Royal Rhyme, who arrive in form and love testing ground.

Harry: I don't think he needs a career-best to win, Lee. A lot has been made of Horizon Dore coming over, but all his improvement has come on better ground than he'll get and his form really is nothing special. Bay Bridge had a tough race in the Arc and I'm not sure he will handle the ground – his one encounter with very soft ground was a loss, after which joint-owner James Wigan said: "This ground probably just found him out a little bit at the finish." Mostahdaf is another not sure to handle testing conditions, so surely the door is wide open for the improving King Of Steel. He ploughed through soft ground just fine as a two-year-old and while he disappointed in bottomless conditions in the Futurity Trophy, that came just ten days after his debut and, given his monstrous size, he was always going to improve at three. Frankie Dettori in the saddle is just an added bonus.

Liam: King Of Steel has delivered two joint-best efforts on Racing Post Ratings in each of his last two starts, yet he has not yielded any success and that has to be a concern. He was suited to quick ground when winning at the royal meeting, but like Joe said, it could be an issue for him if conditions become very testing. For that reason, I’m taking him on and siding with My Prospero, who ran a huge race when third last year and is in winning form after Listed success at Goodwood. 

Hi Punting Club, could you please give me some big-priced outsiders to look out for on Saturday?
Nathan Briggs​​

Joe: One For Bobby caught my eye at 25-1 in the Fillies & Mares Stakes. She finished third in the Hoppings Stakes at Newcastle on her last start in Britain and the front two, Al Husn and Nashwa, have won Group 1s since. You do have to forgive her latest run in the Prix Jean Romanet, but a tongue tie is now applied which suggests there could have been an underlying issue. Raadobarg is interesting in the Balmoral Handicap at 20-1 given how impressively he won the 2022 Irish Lincoln on his last start in a handicap. He was beaten five and a half lengths in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on this card last year.

Raadobarg: contests the Balmoral Handicap on Champions DayCredit: John Grossick

Harry: If you can find some extra places around, I think you'd find a lot worse 40-1 shots than Saint Lawrence in the Champions Sprint. He followed his Wokingham win with a half-length third in the Group 1 Prix Maurice de Gheest, finishing just a neck behind Spycatcher, yet Saint Lawrence is three times the price here. He had Art Power, Sandrine and Rohaan behind that day and could easily outrun his odds. If the ground is truly testing, Dubai Honour is too big at 28-1 in the Champion Stakes. He was second to Sealiway in the 2021 running and after a quiet year, he added a pair of Australian Group 1s to his CV in March and April. The ground would've been too quick in the Eclipse on his first start back in Britain and he's bang there on ratings if showing his true colours.

Liam: Spycatcher is one I'm keeping a close eye on at 12-1 in the Champions Sprint after a very solid five-year-old campaign. The Highclere-owned gelding has done most of his racing on testing ground and he appears better suited to the six furlongs. He produced a joint career-best effort when winning the Prix de Ris-Orangis, pulling comfortably away from his rivals, and this will have been his end-of-season target. Vetiver at 16-1 in the Balmoral is another worth noting given how she handled herself in Group company when third in the Sceptre Fillies' Stakes at Doncaster. She's won over further, so she'll have no issues with the mile trip, and all three of her wins have come with soft in the going description.

Nice and simple, what is your best bet on the card?
Danny Tomlinson

Joe: At a double-figure price, Bluestocking looks like an each-way steal in the Fillies & Mares Stakes. She needs genuinely soft ground to be seen at her best, as shown when run down late in the Irish Oaks this season. It was admittedly disappointing she couldn’t get the job done in Listed company at Chester last time, but the incredibly game winner Al Qareem has since followed up in a strong Group 3 to give the form a boost. First-time cheekpieces are now applied, and Ralph Beckett continues to fire in winners left, right and centre. Her age group have won eight of the last ten runnings and I'm expecting a big performance from the 10-1 shot.

Harry: I'm not at all convinced that the Long Distance Cup is a two-horse race and I'll be looking to Sweet William to prove me right. A progressive half-brother to the high-class Hurricane Lane, he showed he handled what were atrocious conditions at Glorious Goodwood with victory in the Summer Handicap, and proved his class with a second to Trueshan in the Doncaster Cup. He bumped into the rail and lost momentum having hit the front that day, but I think the drop to two miles on heavy ground can see this big improver stake his claim in the staying division.

Liam: I'm looking past the leading two in the betting for the Fillies & Mares Stakes and focusing on Time Lock, who comes into the race in better form and looks like she has more to give. She showed a powerful turn of foot when cruising to Dubai Stakes success at Newmarket last time and although that came on quick ground, she's fared well in testing conditions. The ground was bottomless when she held on for third in the Lillie Langtry at Goodwood and the form of that race was boosted when the winner Sumo Sam followed up in the Park Hill next time.

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