'I've long said he wins the King George - I'm not about to change my mind now' - your Christmas questions answered

During the festive period there is a whole host of top-class racing available for punters to feast upon and looking ahead to what promises to be an unmissable few days, our resident Punting Club judges, Harry Wilson, Joe Eccles and Liam Headd are on hand to discuss hot topics and their best Christmas wagers . . .

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With an unbeaten 4-4 record at Kempton is Shishkin being overlooked in the King George?
Russell Collins

Joe Eccles: I’d much rather be a layer than a player at odds of 4-1, Russell. Shishkin has become too untrustworthy for me, and even if he does decide to start when the tape goes up, I believe the likes of Allaho and Bravemansgame will prove too strong for him. Paul Nicholls’ runner looks rock-solid and would be the safest betting proposition, but don’t be surprised to see Hewick run a big race.   

Harry Wilson: I've been saying since the start of the jumps season that Shishkin wins the King George, and I'm not about to change my mind now. He's being underestimated for sure, largely down to the fact he refused to race when tried in cheekpieces in the 1965 Chase at Ascot last month, but he's very capable of running a big race after a layoff (he's won off 258 and 261-day breaks at Kempton before). He would have won three Grade 1 races last season but for a bad mistake in the Ryanair Chase, and the form of his 16-length Ascot Chase romp was firmly franked when the second and third filled the first two places in the Marsh Chase at Aintree. As you say, he's 4-4 at the track, and still has untapped potential as a stayer and the perfect blend of speed and stamina needed to meet the demands of the King George. 

Liam Headd: There's no doubt Shishkin loves the track, having won each of his four starts by a combined 54 lengths, but you have to be concerned with what happened at Ascot last month when he refused to race. Another slight issue for the nine-year-old is the fact he's not had a race since April after being pulled out of the Fighting Fifth due to the ground. However, Nicky Henderson's star has tons of ability and proved he has no issues with the staying distances after winning the Aintree Bowl in April. His unbeaten record at the track is a major boost for connections and if he runs anywhere close to how he did last season then he's certainly got a chance. I’d be surprised if he doesn't come in for support on the day.

Do you pay close attention to jockey bookings on a bumper Boxing Day and have any caught your eye this year?
Craig Thornton

Joe: Like many punters, I often scan the Boxing Day cards for clues when declarations are revealed. David Pipe is one trainer that I often keep a close eye on around this time of year, and I was encouraged to see stable jockey Jack Tudor booked to ride at Wincanton. The pair combine twice on the seven-race card, with Duc De Beauchene in the 3m1f handicap chase (1.28) and the stronger-fancied Kingofthewest in the 2m4f handicap chase (2.03). Kingofthewest has some strong novice hurdle form to his name that includes a win over the now 142-rated Marble Sands, who runs in the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton earlier in the day. He finds himself on a mark of 104 on Tuesday and ran creditably over this course and distance last time. He’s very much on my punting radar at odds of 3-1.

Harry: I don't really pay attention to jockey bookings, but Sean Bowen's presence on the Gordon Elliott-trained Farren Glory in the Grade 1 Formby Novices' Hurdle at Aintree can be taken one of two ways. Bowen isn't an unusual booking for the Irish trainer and the pair operate at a 33 per cent strike-rate when teaming up, but Elliott's number one Jack Kennedy has partnered Farren Glory the last twice, including to Grade 1 Royal Bond success last time. He looks to have rock-solid claims of more top-level glory, yet Kennedy stays in Ireland to ride the exciting Mighty Bandit in a Grade 2 contest and Found A Fifty in the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown – maybe he thinks he can land two Graded races instead of one? Sometimes looking into jockey bookings raises more questions than answers, but I'd suggest that Found A Fifty has a better chance than the market suggests.

Liam: A lot of the big names will have their usual jockeys onboard, but Facile Vega will be partnered by Patrick Mullins for the first time since April 2022. Paul Townend, who normally takes the reins, is engaged in the King George with Allaho, but Mullins is more than a capable replacement given he won four bumpers with him, which included Grade 1 success at the Cheltenham Festival and Punchestown. It will also be interesting to see how First Street gets on in the Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle at Kempton, with Sam Twiston-Davies riding him for the first time. Regular rider Nico de Boinville partners Constitution Hill in the race, while James Bowen, who is the only other jockey to ride him, is at Aintree.

Could you provide me with your 1-2-3 for this year's Welsh National?
William Mackenzie

Joe: A yellow weather warning for heavy rain has been issued on the day of Chepstow’s eight-race Welsh National card and in anticipation of bottomless ground, I’m going to side with Ben Clarke’s The Galloping Bear. He was in fifth when falling four out in this race last year before going on to chase home Kitty’s Light in the Eider at Newcastle. He’s been given wind surgery since disappointing in the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter in March, his form when fresh is strong, and the provisional booking of Sam Twiston-Davies catches the eye. At 14-1, he’s the one for me.

1 The Galloping Bear
2 Complete Unknown
3 The Big Breakaway

Harry: The shorter trip and quicker ground were wrong for Iron Bridge last time, and he can put that poor effort behind him now given a proper test of stamina. He was beaten just a head when trying to give 12lb to Autonomous Cloud, who is rated 10lb higher now having won since, over three miles at Uttoxeter in March (would've won in another stride) and can rate higher still, with further improvement likely over this marathon trip. Super Survivor has had this race earmarked since winning at the Welsh National meeting last year, shapes as if the longer trip should suit and is sure to go well off a low weight, while conditions should be ideal for last year's runner-up The Big Breakaway to go well again.

1 Iron Bridge
2 Super Survivor
3 The Big Breakaway

Liam: The Paul Nicholls-trained Truckers Lodge ran a huge race to finish fourth in this contest last year and he's got another big chance running off the same mark. His record of 3-10 at the track is a major plus and he obviously sees the trip out as he came within a length and three quarters of winning the 2019 National. Nassalam recorded a career-best effort when winning the National trial earlier this month and should post another solid performance, while The Big Breakaway can run into the places if he shows the kind of form he did when second 12 months ago.

1 Truckers Lodge
2 Nassalam
3 The Big Breakaway

Does A Plus Tard represent value at 16-1 in the Savills Chase?
James Gibson-Wynes

Joe: If he runs up to his official mark of 172 then definitely, but on last season’s form you’d struggle to fancy him. This is a vintage running of the Savills and I’d be surprised if he can get the better of the stronger-fancied horses. Gerri Colombe is my fancy for next year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup, but at Leopardstown I expect Galopin Des Champs to return to winning ways.

Harry: It's not often you see a former Cheltenham Gold Cup winner at those lucrative odds, and if A Plus Tard was to rediscover any of that old form it would surely be value, but it's hard to ignore such a dismal season last term. Pulled up in the Betfair, pulled up in the Gold Cup and then beaten more than 17 lengths by Shishkin at Aintree doesn't read well, but Henry de Bromhead stated this as his pre-Christmas target and said he'd been working well, so there's every chance he could leave all that behind. He's finished first and a close second in two runs in the Savills Chase and could well outrun his odds, but I'd say it's more risk than judgement.

Liam: A Plus Tard was so dominant when winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup last year, but his campaign last season was massively disappointing and even though he's got plenty of ability, it'll take a massive effort for him to rediscover his best form. That's not to say he won't run well, but it's another red-hot contest and rivals Galopin Des Champs, Fastorslow and Gerri Colombe have all shown their class in recent outings. Getting past one of them, let alone all three, will be a huge effort and I'm not sure we'll see that based on last season and the fact he's not run since April. 

Merry Christmas Punting Club, could you please give me a Lucky 15 for the Christmas period?
Nathan Briggs

Joe: Artistic Endeavour (3.40 Kempton, December 26) shapes as though he’ll be suited by the step up to 2m5f and surely has races in him off a mark of 112. Conyers Hill (2.20 Leopardstown, December 27) went into the notebook after finishing strongly for third having suffered trouble in running at Fairyhouse last time and is backed to gain compensation. The Galloping Bear (2.50 Chepstow, December 27) is a strong fancy in the Welsh National for the reasons outlined above. Finally, Goath Chuil (3.00 Leopardstown, December 28) could improve for the step up in trip and has winning form at the track.   

Harry: I'll be focusing on the British action and Blow Your Wad (12.45 Kempton, December 26) is my best bet of the festive period. He tried to give 12lb to Le Patron when second at Sandown last time, but that now looks an impossible task given the winner is rated 28lb higher having followed up in a Grade 1 contest. He jumped brilliantly on that chasing debut and should go well from a 1lb higher mark. Can You Call (1.05 Chepstow, December 27) was a narrow second over the course and distance on his chasing debut and can go one better off his light weight. Tweed Skirt (3.09 Kempton, December 27) should be happier back in a handicap and is well suited to the course. I've long thought that Vicki Vale (3.40 Kempton, December 27) would be suited by a staying trip and having run well on her reappearance at Wincanton in November (one of only a handful from Dan Skelton's yard to do so), she can oblige here. 

Liam: Tellherthename (1.05 Aintree, December 26) runs in the Grade 1 Formby Novices' Hurdle and he has a big chance of striking at the top level. Jockey Kielan Woods described him as the best he’s ridden after Wincanton and I think the four-year-old can reverse the form with Jango Baie. Hermes Allen (1.20 Kempton, December 26) was back to his best at Newbury earlier this month and can land another big prize for Paul Nicholls. Gerri Colombe (2.25 Leopardstown, December 28) is in the form of his life and made a strong return to action when winning the Ladbrokes Champion Chase last time out. Finally, Klassical Dream (1.45 Leopardstown, December 29) delivered an eyecatching display on his chasing debut last month and will appreciate this step up in trip.

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