'I can see him running a big race at odds of 33-1' - your York Ebor festival questions answered

Get set for four fantastic days of racing as York plays host to its Ebor festival. Looking ahead to the action on the Knavesmire, our Punting Club judges Harry Wilson, Joe Eccles and Charlie Huggins are on hand to discuss the hot topics and their best wagers . . .

Would you rate City Of Troy as a Juddmonte International banker?
Allan Morton

Joe Eccles: No. His Derby win was breathtaking but he looks short enough given he comes into this on the back of a workmanlike Eclipse success – where Al Riffa was arguably a shade unlucky not to win after conceding first run and losing a shoe. This looks like a far sterner test and I believe a mile and a half is his optimum trip. With the William Haggas yard in such strong form, it is a little surprising to see Maljoom chalked up at 33-1 for the Juddmonte. He posted a career-best Racing Post Rating when second in the Sussex Stakes and has scope for improvement now stepped up to 1m2½f for the first time.  

Harry Wilson: No. City Of Troy hasn’t impressed me as I hoped he would this year and plenty of Derby winners have come here and failed to live up to their short price, while this race has not been won by the Classic generation since Japan in 2019. At the prices, Ghostwriter, who ran well but was just outstayed in soft ground behind City Of Troy in Eclipse last time, would be my pick of the three-year-olds, but I’ll be on Bluestocking, who is probably better over this trip than the mile and a half she ran over last time and was so impressive when winning the Middleton by six lengths over course and distance in May. 

Bluestocking: fancied by Harry to land the Juddmonte InternationalCredit: Edward Whitaker

Charlie Huggins: No. For all that the form of City Of Troy’s victory over Al Riffa in the Eclipse was boosted by the runner-up going one better in the Group 1 Grosser Preis von Berlin, I do not have the Derby winner as a banker. Should there be no late withdrawals, this is the largest Juddmonte International line-up since the race's inception in 1972 and there is depth to City Of Troy’s 12 rivals. The drop back to 1m2½f favours Derby runner-up Ambiente Friendly, who failed to truly see out a mile and a half at Epsom and in the Irish equivalent at the Curragh. Calandagan was impressive when landing the King Edward VII Stakes but I think he will be outclassed here in his first Group 1. Fellow French raider Zarakem gets a similar trip and the same good to firm ground as when beaten only three-quarters of a length in the Prince of Wales's Stakes. Alflaila finished three lengths behind Zarakem when fourth in that Royal Ascot Group 1 but form figures of 2111 on the Knavesmire, including victory at this trip in the Group 2 York Stakes last month, means he has to be seriously respected. Bluestocking has won at the track and has claimed a Group 1 already this season. Put simply, there are just too many with a chance for me to bank on the Justify colt justifying favouritism.

Sky Bet York offer: 50-1 for Ryan Moore to ride a winner

Hi Punting Club, have you got any big-priced outsiders for the Ebor festival?
Nathan Briggs

Joe Eccles: Although he’s fast becoming my cliff horse, at odds of 33-1 I’m prepared to give Bopedro one last chance in the Clipper Handicap (3.00) on Thursday. David O’Meara’s eight-year-old finished third over course and distance in May and the first, second, fourth, fifth and sixth from that race have won since. I’ll also be siding with Reach in the 1m2½f fillies’ handicap (4.10) on Friday. Michael and David Easterby’s mare won the same race last year and caught the eye when third – despite having been short of room at a crucial stage – over course and distance last time.  

Harry Wilson: Rajeko looks a ridiculous price at 25-1 in the Acomb Stakes (2.25) on the opening day. He beat three subsequent winners on his debut and wasn’t helped by trying to come from last to first when fourth in the July Stakes, form that has been franked with the winner taking a Group 1, the runner-up going close in the Richmond and the third winning a Group 2, while he could improve further for the longer trip. Blue For You could be bigger than he should be for the Clipper Handicap (3.00) on Thursday, given he loves York and has won off this mark before, while in the same race, I agree with Joe that Blue For You's stablemate Bopedro is very well handicapped should this set up for him. 

Charlie Huggins: I have already alluded to Zarakem’s chances in the Juddmonte International (3.35) and the extra half-furlong from his second at the royal meeting could help him become another French winner of a major British Group 1 this summer after Goliath’s victory in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes. Goliath’s SP was 25-1 and Zarakem looks too big at the same price, as does Docklands at 50-1 with Paddy Power. The four-year-old won last year’s Britannia Stakes and was second to subsequent Jacques le Marois winner Charyn in the Queen Anne Stakes on his only previous starts on good to firm ground. Harry Eustace’s decision to step the four-year-old beyond 1m½f for the first time could bring about the required improvement. Another who may outrun his odds is Forza Orta, who is rated 2lb lower than when winning Wednesday’s 2m½f handicap (4.10) last year and Hollie Doyle is an eyecatching first-time jockey booking on the 16-1 shot.

Forza Orta: will he notch another York win?Credit: John Grossick

Is the Nunthorpe between Asfoora and Big Evs or do you think Live In The Dream has a chance of repeating last year's win?
Michael Eason

Joe Eccles: I am a big Live In The Dream fan, but he seems to have lost a little bit of pace this year and I can find no excuses for his latest fourth behind Asfoora and Big Evs at Glorious Goodwood. If the big two run to form it should be fought out between them, and I suspect that Big Evs will uphold the King George form despite meeting Asfoora on 6lb worse terms.

Will it be Big Evs or Asfoora in the Nunthorpe Stakes?Credit: Alan Crowhurst

Harry Wilson: I disagree with Joe, it’s Asfoora’s for the taking. I backed her at Royal Ascot to get the better of Big Evs but I didn’t think she’d uphold the form at a track like Goodwood on 2lb worse terms. However, she actually surprised me with her effort at the Glorious meeting and was arguably a bit unlucky to have lost, so armed with a 6lb swing in the weights with Big Evs at York, she should take all the beating.

Charlie Huggins: I do not think Live In The Dream will repeat last year’s win as he has had plenty of chances to prove that 28-1 success was not a one-off and has been beaten in all six of his starts since. The form of Adam West’s stable star has been well below what is needed to defend his crown, including when finishing fifth in Listed company at Haydock in June. Believing beat Live In The Dream by ten and a half lengths on that occasion and George Boughey’s ultra-consistent filly will pose more of a threat to Asfoora and Big Evs. Last year’s Group 1 Sprint Cup winner and previous course-and-distance scorer Regional as well as Bradsell, who proved his wellbeing with a Deauville Listed victory at the start of the month, are bigger dangers to the two at the top of the market than Live In The Dream. However, I do believe the market has it right and the winner will be one of Asfoora and Big Evs, with preference marginally for the latter.

Who do you fancy in the Ebor?
Will Hawkins

Joe Eccles: I can see Jessica Harrington’s Yashin running a big race at odds of 33-1. He was slightly unlucky in seventh last year having been short of room at a crucial stage and should go well off the same mark of 105. I also see Burdett Road running a big race for James Owen. The former Triumph Hurdle hopeful finished an eyecatching fifth back on the Flat at Ascot last month. He will appreciate stepping back up in trip on that evidence and a rating of 101 could underestimate him.

Burdett Road (right): Joe expects a big run from the four-year-old in the EborCredit: Alan Crowhurst

Harry Wilson: I strongly fancied Naqeeb at Newbury last month and he did nothing to diminish his reputation in going down by just a head, having been given so much to do behind a winner who made all. The return of the tongue-tie, which he had worn when recording his top three RPRs previously, saw him notch a joint-career-best RPR and will be a crucial factor as to whether he is worth backing here. A 2lb rise for that shouldn’t stop him being competitive. A small mention goes to Magical Zoe, a smart hurdler who is making a good fist of it on the Flat. Henry de Bromhead is operating at a 33 per cent strike-rate (2-6; 1-1 at York) with his Flat runners in Britain this year and therefore anything he sends over warrants respect.

Charlie Huggins: Burdett Road missed the Triumph Hurdle with a minor injury and made an eyecatching return to the Flat when finishing fifth over a mile and a half last month. The form of that Ascot handicap has been boosted with the runner-up Insanity going one better in the Shergar Cup since and Burdett Road should be suited by the extra two furlongs here. The four-year-old’s three starts over hurdles, when he was beaten only by subsequent Grade 1 winner Sir Gino, should help him stay and this has been a long-term plan for trainer James Owen and owners the Gredley family. The son of Muhaarar is already proven at big-race Flat meetings, having landed last year’s Golden Gates Stakes at Royal Ascot on the same good to firm ground he will encounter here. He should come on from what was his first run for 181 days last time and the form of his last Flat start on a going description this quick, when he was third behind subsequent Group 2 winner Passenger and Caulfield Cup runner-up West Wind Blows in a Windsor Group 3, reads exceptionally well. 

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'It's a massive result for me' - Sean Kirrane back on board Live In The Dream for Nunthorpe defence 

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